Super sleeper or bust that derails your title hopes? The experts weigh in on Dennis Johnson’s W16 outlook.
This is it. After 15 weeks of battling it out, you have one more shot to make the correct lineup decisions to cap off your season the right way. Just one slip-up in setting your roster and those title hopes could be derailed. No pressure, right?
If there’s ever a week to get a little extra advice, this is surely it. With this in mind, our Featured Experts are here to tackle pressing questions heading into the Championship Week slate of games. If you need more advice, be sure to check out our Start/Sit links below.
[More Advice: Who Should I Start? | Recommendations for your Team]
Q1: Who should fantasy owners be most concerned about as a potential bust this week?
Drew Brees (at CAR)
Adrian Peterson (assume he plays, at CIN)
Andre Brown (at DET)
Larry Fitzgerald (assume he plays, at SEA)
Other (pick of expert’s choice)
“I’ve got significant concerns about Larry Fitzgerald this week. He’s played well of late, but has a QB with ankle and elbow problems in a hostile environment against a tough secondary. Fitzgerald hasn’t topped 6.3 fantasy points against the division rival Seahawks in two years.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)
“I’m most concerned about Andre Brown here. Often in fantasy, we think along the lines of “player-matchup-gameplan.” However, noticeably absent from that equation is the players around the player we’re evaluating. Brown’s Giants teammates gave up last week and are playing out a lost season. When you add that to the already negative matchup and likely game script (his team likely to be playing from behind), Brown is an absolute stay-away this week.”
– Ryan Hester (footballandbrackets)
“Fitzgerald’s been more consistent of late, but still has only 2 top-10 performances this year. So, he hasn’t returned to a place of locked-in WR1. Brees is far and away the player to worry about. Road woes & a CAR D leave me wringing my hands. 16 FP/G to QBs last 4. ”
“Concussion aside, I would be wary of starting Fitzgerald this week in Seattle. Even with the Seahawks’ personnel problems in the secondary, you’ve got to expect the Cardinals will have a hard time generating fantasy points this week.”
Q2: Which surprise stud from last week is most likely to treat fantasy owners to another strong outing?
Ryan Fitzpatrick (at JAC)
Jordan Todman (vs. TEN)
DeAngelo Williams (vs. NO)
Greg Jennings (at CIN)
Andre Caldwell (at HOU)
“I don’t love beating my chest, but I was someone that was out ahead of the Jordan Todman emergence prior to last week’s games. While that prediction fell just a couple points short, it shows that I believed in his talent and situation. Neither of those things are changing as Jacksonville now gets Tennessee’s rather porous run defense. My selection, of course, assumes that Maurice Jones-Drew once again sits out for the Jaguars.”
– Ryan Hester (footballandbrackets)
“I like both ends of the TEN/JAX tilt, but I’ll go RB to help those in need of a second back or Flex option. Todman racked up 153 total yards last week, adding valuable YAC. The Titans have allowed the 2nd-most FP to RBs this season. ”
“Without Wes Welker I think you’ve got to expect big things from Andre Caldwell this week. While many thought Tamme, Caldwell filled Welker’s slot role and drew ten targets from Manning on Thursday night, to lead the team. Expect similar usage against the Texans. If MJD is out, I love Todman vs. the Titans yielding 27.25 FPPG to RBs over the last month.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)
“Fitzpatrick has been very good for the past 4-5 weeks and while I wouldn’t expect him to be the best fantasy quarterback again this week, with Justin Hunter back he should be a solid QB1 option in Jacksonville.”
– Micah James (FFMagicMan)
Q3: Name one other “sleeper start” for Week 16 and tell us why the gamble to start him over one of the consensus top players could pay off.
“I shan’t go far enough to say that the Giants rebound from the shutout loss to beat Detroit. But, I suspect we get more fight than we did a week ago. So, I go to Rueben Randle, who starts in place of Victor Cruz. Detroit’s secondary will allow big plays, and Manning and company should have a short field or two off turnovers. ”
“Expect big things from Rod Streater this week. Even with Denarius Moore back in Week 15 and Andre Holmes doing some scoring, Streater drew nine targets from Matt McGloin giving him 19 over the last two weeks. Oakland is going to have to pass to stick around with San Diego and I like Streater to continue to see volume against a Chargers D that has been susceptible to the pass all year. Use Streater over stars with tough matchups, like Fitzgerald mentioned above and Roddy White among others.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)
“I’m going out on a limb with this one, but I feel like Santonio Holmes might be a WR3/Flex option this week. He’s seeing a lot of targets, and the Jets have been much better at home. If you need a fill-in he might be worth consideration.”
“I love Giovani Bernard this week. I realize that he’s being ranked as a RB2 currently, but I think he’ll finish the week in the top-12, particularly in PPR leagues as Minnesota has allowed the most receptions to running backs in the NFL. Digging deeper, I actually like a Houston Texan not named Andre Johnson. Dennis Johnson should see at least 18 touches against a Denver team that could be in cruise control by the game’s second half. Johnson could get some “fluff” receptions and yards to give him a surprisingly high floor.”
– Ryan Hester (footballandbrackets)
Q4: Facing Dallas at home, Kirk Cousins will have
(over/under) 300 passing yards
(over/under) 2.0 TDs
(over/under) 1.5 INTs
“Under (passing yards), over (TDs) and under (INTs). Cousins is a very capable quarterback and I expect him to put up nice numbers against the rival Cowboys. The Redskins will likely run the ball a lot which keeps Cousins under 300 yards, but he’ll still be a borderline QB1.”
“I could see Cousins having a 310 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception line. So those totals are all pretty fair in terms of handicapping, but I’m going with over, push, and under.”
– Ryan Hester (footballandbrackets)
“I’ll take the over trifecta here. Washington had an ugly seven turnovers last week and I think Dallas is a back-end DST start despite the fact that they’re going to give up yards and points. With three turnovers himself, Cousins’ real world debut wasn’t as strong as the numbers dictate but he’ll keep it up against a Cowboys D that gives up these numbers on average (312 passing YPG) and continues to play without Sean Lee, Morris Claiborne and others.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)
“Cousins goes under 300 yards, over on both TDs and INTs (fumbles). They’ve taped the playbook back together, and Garcon is getting loose in the secondary. What a three-game stretch to audition for trade partners and rack up fantasy points! Giants next week!”
Q5: Thrust into a starting role vs. Denver, Dennis Johnson will tally
(over/under) 100 total yards (rush+receiving)
(over/under) .5 TDs
“Again, I’m doubling up here but on the other side (under). This isn’t a slight on Johnson, as much as an indictment of the Texans as a whole. Given the anticipated gameflow (i.e. Houston getting throttled) it is hard to envision him with a lot of carries so he’d need to do his damage as a pass catcher. Outside of the Pats game, starter Ben Tate hasn’t scored a TD in two full months so I’m not willing to say Johnson is a good bet to score as his replacement.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)
“As I said in Question 3 above, I like Johnson this week. Touchdowns are hard to predict — even harder when projecting someone from the lowly Texans to score one, so I’m going to say he goes under on that line. But I think he’ll be over 100 total yards. It could be a game where his numbers are similar to those of Jordan Todman from last week.”
– Ryan Hester (footballandbrackets)
“Under (yards), over (TDs). Denver can be run on, but that Houston team is fantasy desolation right now even with Schaub getting the start. I think Johnson scores a touchdown, but Deji Karim will see a good bit of work and the Texans will throw a lot so Johnson’s value drops a bit for me.”
“Feed him the ball. Denver has allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to RBs. Schaub’s back under center and winging it. I have to believe that the Texans show more fight this week than they did against the Colts. ”
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Thanks to this week’s Featured Experts for sharing their insight with us. If you’d like to get more advice from the experts, please visit their sites (click their names below) and follow them on Twitter.
