Expert Roundtable: Studs, Duds & Sleepers (Week 15)

Posted by andrew on December, 13th 2013

Chris Ogbonnaya

Can you trust a potential sleeper RB from the Browns with a Championship birth at stake?

 

With the playoffs upon us, there’s no shortage of questions for fantasy owners. We’re seeing them roll in at record numbers, whether they’re coming via our Who Should I Start? tool, Twitter, emails, or any other way imaginable. In a nutshell, fantasy players are leaving no stone unturned with so much is at stake.

 

To help out during these exciting, yet difficult times, we’ve called on our Featured Pros to tackle several pressing questions. Read on to see who the Pros like to surprise this week as well as which players they think are on bust alert.


Get Start/Sit & Waiver Wire Advice

 

Q1: Who should fantasy owners be most concerned about as a potential bust this week:

Andre Brown (SEA matchup)
Pierre Garcon (no RG3)
Tom Brady (no Gronk, at MIA matchup)
Bobby Rainey (SF matchup)
OTHER (pick of expert’s choice)

 

“I could envision Garcon taking advantage of a good matchup, Brown getting into the end zone to meet his fantasy quota, and Rainey turning a high volume of touches into a decent day. But it’s hard to see Brady lighting up a good Miami pass defense without his big-play TE. He had a terrible fantasy game against Miami back in October, and while a healthy Vereen somewhat mitigates the loss of Gronk, I think it’s going to be a struggle for Brady this week.”

Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

 

“Chris Ivory. All the potential busts listed are in for horrible games this week, especially those Giant players who should get manhandled by Seattle’s Super Bowl caliber defense. A bust that you should avoid putting in your RB#2/Flex options in all leagues is Chris Ivory. The Jets are going to fall behind early to the Panthers. Once that becomes a reality, the Jets will abandon Ivory and the running game. Remember those LeGarrette Blount circa 2010 games: 50 yards then barely playing in the second half. That will be the case in Week 15 for Ivory.”

Muntradamus (Beast Dome)


“I like Bobby Rainey, I do, but I can see him disappointing against SF in Week 15, especially once SF gets out to an early lead and eliminates TB’s rushing opportunities.”

Smitty (Draft Calc)

 

“Reggie Bush. It goes without saying that any player who is questionable for MNF is a huge liability (especially when his handcuff is already owned in 70% of leagues), but the matchup against the Ravens above average run defense should have Bush owners very concerned if they have no other options.”

Sean Koerner (Bloomberg Sports)

 

 

Q2: Which surprise stud from last week is most likely to treat fantasy owners to another strong outing:

Jason Campbell (vs. CHI)
Dennis Pitta (at DET)
Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. PHI)
Da’Rick Rogers (vs. HOU)
Rod Streater (vs. KC)

 

“Cordarrelle Patterson. He has a few things in his favor this week: Peterson/Gerhart/Carlson in danger of missing the game, Cassel under center, and a potential shootout against the Eagles.”

Sean Koerner (Bloomberg Sports)

 

“Call him Percy Harvin 2.0. The Vikings having nothing left to play for, as well as no Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Look for the Vikings to get ‘Cord’ at least 10 touches, even a few as a RB. Patterson will see plenty of action against a weak Eagles defense that will likely be in prevent mode the entire second half as they destroy the Vikings. Which means Garbage Time.”

Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

 

“They’re all playable this week with the possible exception of Campbell, but I think Pitta offers the best odds of scoring a TD. Detroit has been tough on opposing TEs this year, so I don’t think Pitta will pile up yardage, but Joe Flacco absolutely loves him as a red-zone target.”

Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

 

“Out of the names given, none of which jumped out in a big way, I have to say I like Da’Rick Rogers having yet another strong game (after his big Week 14). I think TY Hilton and Rogers are going to eventually have Andrew Luck consistently playing like a top 3 fantasy QB. Take note in dynasty leagues!”

Smitty (Draft Calc)

 

 

Q3: Name one other “sleeper start” for Week 15 and tell us why the gamble to start him over one of the consensus top players could pay off.

 

“Last I checked, FantasyPros showed Joe Flacco ranked QB17, but I love him as a semi-sneaky QB play for this week. The return of Dennis Pitta is huge for Flacco, and the Lions’ cornerbacks are utterly flammable.”

Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

 

“Matt Ryan. Took the gamble starting him over Philip Rivers. I would consider starting him over a guy like Tom Brady this week. he has a great matchup against a Redskins team that is falling apart and luckily the Falcons defense is just bad enough to keep the game close enough to keep throwing.”

Sean Koerner (Bloomberg Sports)

 

“Jason Campbell. The Browns come into Sunday playing a fairly weak Bears defense, in Cleveland. The advantage that Campbell has over every QB in the NFL, is the Browns have zero RBs that are capable of big running games. Add the fact that the Browns will likely be losing to the Bears, and we can see Campbell throw 50 pass attempts. This should easily make him a Top 12 QB and a better option than a Gronkless Tom Brady.”

Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

 

“Ben Tate. He failed fantasy owners last week rushing in the 50 yard range. I think he has a big Week 15 and 16, as the coaching staff will really lean on the run game in the final 2013 outings. Averaging 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in Weeks 15 and 16 wouldn’t surprise me at all. Toby Gerhart is my runner-up!”

Smitty (Draft Calc)

 

Q4: With Willis McGahee out (concussion) and facing a woeful Bears run defense, Chris Ogbonnaya will have:

(over/under) 100 total yards

(over/under) .5 TDs

(over/under) 5 receptions

 

“Ah, the Chicago Bears…such a soft, cuddly run defense. Ogbonnaya is a nice play this week, but I’m only taking the “over” on receptions. Fozzy Whittaker is going to get in on the fun, too, which will keep Ogbonnaya from putting up circus numbers.”

Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

 

“I’d like a max bet on UNDER 100 total yards please. Would set the line closer to 82.5 total yards (as of now), with 4 receptions, and a 39% chance of finding the end zone.”

Sean Koerner (Bloomberg Sports)


“The ‘OG’ Bonnaya is a RB I would not trust for my big Week 15 matchup. First of all, Fozzy Whittaker will see plenty of action which means I will take the Under for all of the above on Ogbonnaya. The Browns also do not believe in running the football. Add to the equation that the Browns will likely be playing from behind, and ‘OG’ will likely be RB#4 material with a goal line TD being his possible saving grace.”

Muntradamus (Beast Dome)


“Over on yards. I’m not a huge fan of starting a Browns’ rusher, but this matchup is quite inviting. I think it will be close, but 100 yards rushing is doable. I think he scores, however, and 5 receptions, I say no. I think he fails to land all three. A strong flex play, or play if your team has been hit with injury.”

Smitty (Draft Calc)

 


Q5: In his return at Cleveland, Jay Cutler will have:

(over/under) 250 passing yards

(over/under) 1.5 TD passes

(over/under) .5 INTs

 

“Great lines as I have his passing yards at 249 and a 50% chance of throwing 2 or more TDs. However, I give him a 60% chance of throwing a pick so I will take the over .5 INTs.”

Sean Koerner (Bloomberg Sports)

 

“What’s the house wagering limit on the “over” for INTs? It’s a much tougher call on the other two o/u numbers. I’ll reluctantly take the “over” on both, more out of respect for Marc Trestman than for Cutler.”

Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

 

“Over on the yards. I think Jay Cutler has at least 275-300 yards passing in this one, and over on TDs, as I see him having 2-3 scores, but at least 2. Over on INTs, as I think 1 INT is understandable as he shakes off some rust. Cutler is a great pickup this week… he is available in a lot of leagues still.”

Smitty (Draft Calc)

 

“Jay Cutler has one goal this week. To win this football game. ‘Cut’ will do what it takes to win, not have a breakout fantasy performance. Look for the Bears to run the ball a lot in the second half as they preserve their lead, which means I will take the Under for all of the above. Cutler will be a manger, not a gunslinger. ”

- Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

 

 

Thanks to this week’s Featured Experts for sharing their insight with us. If you’d like to get more advice from the experts, please visit their sites (click their names below) and follow them on Twitter.

 

Pat Fitzmaurice
Sean Koerner
Muntradamus
Smitty

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