Will Cam Newton lead Carolina to its first division win since 2005?
The wild card round has come and go and three out of the four teams proved that home field advantage does not mean much anymore (Indy wasn’t stellar at home either and squeaked it out). After taking care of business in Green Bay, the 49ers head to Carolina this Sunday (1:05pm EST) in a rematch from week 10 hoping for a similar outcome as the road team once again.
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This game shouldn’t be too different from the last time these teams met where a score of 10-9 Panthers, showcased two of the best defenses in the league. These are two similar teams led by stellar defenses and each will be tested equally by exciting young QB’s in Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton. The 49ers come in with the longest winning streak from the regular season of any team in the playoffs and will have their receiving corps fully healthy this go around. The Panthers sacked Kaepernick six times on mostly four man fronts in week 10 and they will be looking for a repeat performance from their star defensive players in Luke Kuechly and Greg Hardy. Our experts weigh in below and 2/3 are rolling with the 49ers as 1-point favorites.
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66% | 34% |
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“The Panthers topped the Niners in San Francisco 10-9 in their first meeting earlier this season, but I don’t think they’ll get the sweep here. Steve Smith isn’t 100% and the 49ers are simply red-hot right now. It should be close, but the 49ers should get to their third straight NFC title game.”
– Kevin Roberts Breaking Football “A healthy Michael Crabtree and Jim Harbaugh’s exceptional game-planning will be the difference in this defensive slug fest.”
– Greg Smith The Fake Football “The last time these two teams faced each other in Week 10, the two managed just 19 combined points as the defenses took over, leading to a Carolina win. That was a different Niners team, however. Since that two week stretch that saw them lose to the Panthers and the Saints, the Niners have won seven straight games, including wins against Seattle, Arizona, and Green Bay. With Michael Crabtree back, it’ll be hard for anyone to stop this team.”
– Igor Derysh XN Sports  “San Francisco is the most complete team in the league and I fully expect them to get back to the Superbowl in 2014.”
– Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall “It’s telling when a road team is favored in an NFL playoff game. Both teams boast elite defenses but what sways me to the side of San Francisco is the offense. They have a more consistent running game and more receiving threats. I’ll take the 49ers in a fairly low-scoring affair.”
– Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts “I’m a 49ers fan who was convinced they were going to lose in Green Bay last week and yet don’t find it odd at all they are favorites on the road against a Carolina team coming off a bye they lost previously to this year at home. In other words, I suggest you fade me. But last time these teams met there was no Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis left early with a concussion, and it was Aldon Smith’s first game back from rehab. San Francisco will be playing a 10 am home clock game and facing the NFL’s best front seven, so I fully expect this game to be close.”
– Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports “The 49ers are peaking at the right time and quarterback Colin Kaepernick is using his legs more now than he did in the regular season. When the Panthers beat San Francisco 10-9 back in week 10 Kaepernick had no Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis played merely 22 snaps before leaving the game with a concussion. Both will be in the line up this week and the 49ers will get their revenge.”
– Walton Spurlin FantasySharks “How will Carolina (and more specifically, Cam Newton and the defense) react on the big stage? San Francisco was a shell of itself in the regular-season meeting between the two teams (thanks to the absence of Michael Crabtree, Aldon Smith’s first game back and a battered offensive line), but is the better all-around team of the two now. It should be a tight battle between two defensive-minded squads, but look for the Niners to avenge their earlier loss.”
– Doug Orth FFToday “Carolina will not benefit for the long time off, and I expect them to look rusty during the first half of this game. San Francisco is peaking at the right time, and should be able to handle the Carolina pass defense in this game. ”
– Jeff Boggis Fantasy Sports Empires “I wish I knew how healthy Steve Smith will be, because without him, the Panthers can’t move the ball at all. Oh, well … when the Panthers won at SF in November, the 49ers didn’t have Michael Crabtree and lost Vernon Davis early, and their presences should help. This should be another defensive battle, but the Niners are the better team. (P.S. I live in Charlotte, so let’s keep this pick between us, OK?)”
– John Halpin Fox Sports “This one seems destined to be a close, low-scoring game, and I feel more comfortable backing the team with the better head coach and the proven playoff pedigree.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl “The Niners have won seven straight games including last week’s victory at Green Bay. If they can defeat the Packers in freezing cold conditions, they should have no problem handling the Panthers in Carolina. San Francisco is gearing up for another Super Bowl run while this is Cam Newton’s first trip to the NFL playoffs. The Panthers’ defense is scary and the team won the Week 10 match-up in San Francisco, but the 49ers didn’t have Michael Crabtree for that game. With Crabtree back in playoff form, as evidenced by his 8-125 line from last week, the Niners should win this game and cover the one point spread.”
– Ryan Rufe RotoBaller “Our software has the 49ers winning this game on average by exactly 1.01 points. With the 49ers winning more often than not, they have to be given the edge in the 1 point spread. But it’s going to be close. ”
– Site Projections Fantasy Football Starters “The team that finished last year one game shy of glory last season against a team, and QB with little playoff experience despite the fact that Carolina plays at home. Kaep and co. are getting healthy while Cam Newton won’t have Steve Smith at 100%. With Vernon Davis available for 60 minutes and Michael Crabtree in the game (he’s heating up) expect San Francisco to find enough on offense this week to get by Carolina.”
– Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR “The first meeting between these two teams ended in a 10-9 Panthers victory, and I would expect a similar defensive showcase on Sunday. Since San Francisco has gotten Michael Crabtree back though, their offense has been firing on all cylinders. This game will ultimately be decided by a field goal, but I’m taking a better coached 49ers team to move on to their 3rd consecutive NFC Championship game.”
– Staff Rankings 2MugsFF “I know that everyone loves home underdogs, but not me. Not in this matchup anyways. It’s basically a pick em, and Cam Newton doesn’t have the run game that Colin Kaepernick has behind him. Both defenses are strong, but I think Cam chokes this one away. ”
– Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football “Even though I generally dislike picking small road favorites, the 49ers are a much more complete team on both sides of the ball. Both teams have suffocating defenses, but especially with Michael Crabtree returning to form, the 49ers have more talented playmakers on offense.”
– Kevin Hanson EDSFootball “The 49ers are better with Crabtree and it’s showing in the offense. Both of these teams have amazing defense, but in the end the 49ers will get the job done. ”
– James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru “Is this is a spread or are we charting X and Y? It’ll be a tougher defensive matchup for Kaptain America this week but I think we see some jitters from Carolina to start and for Crabtree to have a big day and lead the charge for the 49ers.”
– Sky Sperling Razzball “It took 53-yard field goal for the Panthers to win the first meeting between these two teams as both offenses had trouble moving the ball against two ferocious defenses. The only offensive unit to have even a little success was the SF ground game. Add Michael Crabtree and divide by whatever factor accounts for Steve Smith’s injury limitations, and the 49ers win a close one on the road.”
– R.J. White Fantasy Football Cafe “This one is basically a pick ’em and I like the Niners here simply because of reputation. Colin Kaepernick, Jim Harbaugh and much of the rest of this team had postseason success last year. This is Cam Newton’s playoff debut and even though they are home I can’t see the Niners’ season ending just yet.”
– Rich Arleo Bruno Boys “Little surprised there isn’t a lot of love for Carolina. This means the people are all over the 49ers and I’ll roll with the people.”
– Paul Greco FantasyPros911 “Kaepernick with Crabtree is a total different quarterback. This team has the experience and is firing on all cylinders. They’re going to be tough to beat.”
– Steve Wyremski Dynasty League Football “The 49’ers and Panthers defense is equal in my book. The better offense will make the difference in this game and this is where the 49’ers excel over the Panthers. ”
– Staff Rankings Fantasy Knuckleheads “I have thought the Seahawks and the 49ers were the two best teams in the NFC the entire year and even though the Panthers won 10-9 in San Francisco, nothing I have seen this season has changed my mind. This should be another low scoring game, but the 49ers have been on this stage in 2011 and 2012. This is the Panthers first playoff appearance since 2008. I like the 49ers to cover the spread and win the game.”
– Derek Lofland Fantasy Football Maniax “In what should be the most closely-contested game of the weekend, I see San Francisco, despite traveling cross-country, coming out on top. Carolina is untested in the playoffs and has one of its few reliable offensive targets hobbling. It remains to be seen how this team will handle the pressure of hosting a playoff game. San Francisco has been in this position before and will utilize a balanced attack to score enough against Carolina’s very stingy defense to pull out another road win.”
– Ryan Hester footballandbrackets “Toughest game to call this week, but I have held the belief that the 49ers were the second best team in the NFC and they only became a wild card team because they lost to Carolina by 1 point back in week 10. Otherwise the road in the NFC would go through them. Expect Jim Harbaugh to use that as motivation for his players to not only win, but win by more than just 1 point. ”
– Russ Bliss Fantasy Football Starters |
“This game will be a big test for Cam Newton and the Panthers. They’ve been hot in the tail end of the 2013 season, and they really need to ride that momentum into this game. While the Niners looked good in the Wild Card Round, I’m not so quick to jump on that bandwagon. These are two teams with very good defenses and offenses piloted by young QBs that pose all kinds of problems for opposing defenses. At the end of the day, I think Kaepernick will struggle against a tough Carolina D. I pick the Panther defense to have a strong day, and Cam and crew to be able to do just enough to win this one.”
– Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland “Do the Panthers lose? We saw Kaepernick against the Panthers in the regular season. In what may have been the worst start of his career, Kaepernick threw for just 91 yards and an interception. I’m thinking we’re going to see a Broncos-Panthers superbowl. ”
– Michael Sherman Fantasy Team Advice “The Panthers defense was elite all season, and the 49ers have been running hot and cold”
– KJ Fantasy Team Advice “Carolina is a better team than San Fran. It’s really close, but the Panthers are a hair better according to the metrics I like to look at (Football Outsiders, Massey-Peabody, etc…). When teams are this close, the home team should just get their three points. I could see things fading a bit towards San Fran and moving the line down to 2-2.5, but Carolina as a dog just doesn’t make sense unless we’re sure San Fran is better. Which I’m decidedly not.”
– Brett Talley The Fantasy Fix “I like this line better at +3, but I think Carolina wins regardless. I put more stock in their previous matchup than the fact that SF has won 7 straight. Niners were lucky to slip past a terrible Packers team, and that will show in this one.”
– Kevin Kumpf Razzball “I’ll take the home team in a low scoring pick ’em. Special teams could play a big role in this one.”
– Nate Hodges Pro Football Focus “This game should be great, as there regular season matchup was this season. In a game this closely matched, I will side with the home team. Both of these defenses are tremendous so I will side with Cam Newton and the Panthers at home.”
– Jeff Brubach The Fake Football “This is a game of defense with two of the best defenses in the NFL, let alone the NFC, taking the field. The difference maker will be at quarterback where Cam Newton has been helped by a resurgent DeAngelo Williams. Both Colin Kaepernick and Newton can tuck the ball and run, but Newton’s experience and the consistency that Carolina has shown defensively leads them to another victory over San Francisco who has not had the best experiences facing the Panthers. ”
– Keet Bailey Breaking Football “This game is the definition of a coin flip, and you always take the points in a coin flip, especially if those points are at home.”
– Raymond Summerlin Pro Football Addicts “Rarely do you avoid taking the points when a team plays at home, especially when we are talking about two playoff teams. The Panthers offense is as good, if not better than, the 49ers and their defense is better, again taking into account that the Panthers are playing at home. ”
– Michael Pichan RotoInfo “With that defense and +1 at home, I’ll take the Carolina Cats.”
– Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain “SF is tough, but CAR is my dark horse to face DEN in the big game. At home helps in this one.”
– Staff Rankings Draft Calc |
