Skip to main content

Chargers at Broncos (-9.5): Against the Spread Picks

Can Peyton take the Broncos past the division round where they lost last year?

Can Peyton take the Broncos past the division round where they lost last year?

 

The divisional playoffs are here and we have another matchup with two teams that met in the regular season. The Broncos will host the Chargers on Sunday (4:40pm EST) and there will be plenty of familiarity between these division rivals. The Chargers are a confident group and know they can win in Denver (see week 15 of the regular season), but the Broncos are confident themselves and are led by Peyton Manning and Co. who beat these Chargers in week 10.

 

Enter our Divisional Playoff Contest. Win a share of $15,000 in guaranteed prizes partner-arrow

 

Both of these teams have every reason to believe they can win. Phillip Rivers has been playing some of his best football in years and Peyton Manning is well, Peyton Manning. History tells us though that being the #1 seed and having a bye isn’t a great advantage (7-9 since 2005) and Manning himself is 1-2 in divisional round games after leading his team to a #1 seed and a bye. Our experts have made their picks, take a look below and see what they have to say.

 

 

SD
San Diego Chargers (+9.5)
DEN
Denver Broncos (-9.5)
Pick %
53% 47%
“The Broncos should win this game but the Chargers have contained the Broncos twice this season, winning in Week 15 27-20 and losing in Week 10 28-20. Peyton is clearly likely to guide his team to the AFC Championship game but this one isn’t liable to be a blowout. The Chargers have now won five straight games, including wins over Denver, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. ”
Igor Derysh XN Sports
“Denver just lost at home against San Diego one month ago, but they will have Wes Welker back and will be coming off a bye (the opposite of last time, when they played on a Thursday). Still, it’s hard to doubt the Chargers’ coaching at this point, so while I fully expect the Broncos to win, this should be another close contest.”
Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports
“Denver won in San Diego by eight points in Week 10 and the Chargers returned the favor on the Broncos’ home field with a seven-point victory in Week 15, suggesting this will be yet another close game between two division rivals. Denver is my choice to make the Super Bowl on the AFC side, but San Diego is playing arguably the best football of any AFC team, so a double-digit win by either team seems unlikely.”
Doug Orth FFToday
“In the two previous meetings this season, Denver has a 1 point advantage. Denver won the first game at San Diego by 8 points, but lost at home by 7 points. San Diego has proven that they can win on the road. I feel that Denver will win the game, but keep it closer than 9.5 points. ”
Jeff Boggis Fantasy Sports Empires
“I would have laid the points two months ago, when the Denver defense was still acquitting itself reasonably well against some pretty good offenses. But it’s been a long time since the Broncos’ defense kept a good offense in check, and the Chargers have a dangerous, well-balanced attack. I think this one will be a nail-biter.”
Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl
“I’m going to make it a sweep for the underdogs this week and go with the Chargers and 9.5 points. San Diego has the confidence to go into Denver and play well, which they already did once this season, so I think they can keep things close against Manning and the Broncos.”
Jeff Brubach The Fake FootballJeff Brubach's most confident pick for this week
“Playoffs….again these spreads wow…I can’t turn town 9.5”
Ken Zalis Fans Fantasy Football
“The Chargers have played their division rivals tough this year, losing at home to the Broncos in Week 10, 28-20, before defeating Peyton Manning and company in Denver in Week 15, 27-20. I’m definitely picking the Broncos to win this game, but I’ll take the Chargers getting 9.5 points all day long.”
Ryan Rufe RotoBaller
“San Diego went 1-1 against Denver this season and closed out the 2013 season on a 4 game winning streak, including a road win over the Broncos in week 15. Even in their first game, the Broncos only won by 8 points. Chargers coach Mike McCoy seems to have the ability to keep things closer than expected against his former team. . ”
Site Projections Fantasy Football StartersFantasy Football Starters's most confident pick for this week
“San Diego knocked off Denver at home a month to the day of this game, but that was on a short week and I’m not counting on a repeat, particularly after Denver has had the bye to rest and prepare while San Diego will be tasked with securing their second straight road upset. Peyton and co. will get it done, but a late cover seems reasonable against a team vulnerable to the pass. Both games (1-1) have been within this number in 2013.”
Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR

“The theme of this week is underdogs. Dogs are 25-15 ATS in the Divisional Round over the last ten years, and dogs of seven or more are 13-7 over that span. Of the three big numbers this weekend, this is the most confusing.

People can and obviously are discounting Denver’s loss to San Diego in Denver as a fluke. It was, after all, a Thursday night game, and Denver was without Wes Welker. It is harder, however, to explain away Denver’s 28-20 win over San Diego Week 10 in which Philip Rivers had the ball at midfield with a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter.

The reality is Mike McCoy knows how to play Denver. I expect the Broncos to move on, but 9.5 is just too big a number in what should be a close game.”
Raymond Summerlin Pro Football Addicts

“San Diego managed to beat Denver on the road this year by constructing long, meticulous drives that wore out Denver’s defense. They also managed to stall the Broncos’ offense by holding them to one first down in four drives at one point in the game. With Von Miller lost for the year, I expect the Chargers are able to move the ball at will once again. Peyton has had time to watch this game to figure out what went wrong, and he’ll also have Wes Welker back to help him move the chains. Ultimately, I think the Broncos emerge, but I’ll take the 9.5 points as the Chargers keep this game close.”
Staff Rankings 2MugsFF
“Like when they upset Denver in Week 15, I expect the Chargers to try to control the clock and slow the game down. It wouldn’t surprise me if their rush attempts are twice their pass attempts once again as they had a 44:21 run-to-pass ratio in Week 15. Another outright upset seems unlikely, but they should keep the game relatively close.”
Kevin Hanson EDSFootball
“The Chargers lost by 8 points the first time these two teams met and then won by 7 the second time around. Giving the Broncos a near 10 point cushion is pretty foolhardy to me. I expect Denver to win but the Chargers will deploy their clock-killing offense and rely heavily on the run to keep it under a touchdown lead most of the game. If Mathews is healthy, expect 100 yards rushing. If not, Chargers may struggle to keep the game plan but still keep it close.”
Sky Sperling RazzballSky Sperling's most confident pick for this week
“San Diego has already proven they can hang with the Broncos, winning in Denver during the regular season and losing by just eight points in their other matchup. If the Chargers can hold the Broncos under 30 as they did in both regular season games, they have a great chance of covering. With no Von Miller for the Broncos, the Chargers may even be able to hang in a slugfest.”
R.J. White Fantasy Football Cafe
“Denver has been unstoppable at times, but they have shown a vulnerable side. Their defense is weak and the Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the league. I don’t see the Broncos blowing them out in this one. The Chargers defense is playing better now than at any point in the season and this team has already felled Peyton Manning and this Broncos team once this year.”
Rich Arleo Bruno Boys
“Manning always struggles and San Diego continues to be underrated. They beat them already this year and 9.5 points is just way too much.”
Steve Wyremski Dynasty League Football
“I have a few problems with this line. QB Peyton Manning is just 1-4 in the Divisional Round where he had a bye in the Wild Card Round. Second, he is (0-2) in the playoffs against Chargers QB Philip Rivers. Finally, the Broncos played the Chargers twice this year and won by eight points in San Diego and lost by seven points in Denver. I think the Broncos are going to win the game, but I doubt they win by more than a touchdown, much less double digits.”
Derek Lofland Fantasy Football Maniax
“This pick isn’t because of the “Team of Destiny” narrative. It’s because San Diego has given Denver a lot of trouble twice this season. In fact, Denver has been held below 400 total yards of offense just twice this season. Both of those games were against the Chargers (the latter of which actually resulted in a sub-300 yard output). San Diego knows that the blueprint to beat Denver involves running the ball to possess it as much as possible. Although Time of Possession is becoming a wildly overrated stat, San Diego’s NFL lead in the stat shows that they can keep Peyton Manning off the field. And if they fall behind early, they do have a nice passing game to fall back on, which could help in a back-door cover type of situation.”
Ryan Hester footballandbrackets
“There’s no reason in the world why Denver shouldn’t beat San Diego by 10 or more points. That said, in two games against them this season, the Chargers lost by 8 in one and won outright by 7 in the other. The Chargers seem to give Peyton Manning trouble whether he’s a Colt or a Bronco. The game will be closer than expected. ”
Russ Bliss Fantasy Football Starters
“I really like the Chargers and think they can absolutely go into Denver and win for the second time in three tries this year. I just don’t think it’s likely. Peyton Manning and co. got shoved out of the playoffs early last year, and I doubt they are about to let that happen again.”
Kevin Roberts Breaking Football
“The Chargers did hand Denver one of its 3 losses in their Week 15 meeting, but I don’t predict a repeat. San Diego has been a good #6 seed story of a team fighting to the wire to get into the playoffs, and they played well in the Wild Card Round. That said, the Denver offense is going to be too much for San Diego this time around. I predict Manning and crew to have a strong day and to cover the 9.5 point spread. It’s a big spread, but I feel like meeting number three between these AFC West rivals won’t be a particularly close one. Denver will win by two scores.”
Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland
“San Diego had a fine season, but they just aren’t up for this fight. Peyton’s having the greatest season of his career; he’s not going to go out this early. Expect a blowout. ”
Michael Sherman Fantasy Team AdviceMichael Sherman's most confident pick for this week
“This is Peyton’s year. No way he goes down to Philip Rivers and company in the playoffs… right?”
KJ Fantasy Team AdviceKJ's most confident pick for this week
“This is the toughest line of the week. I figured it would be at least nine so it wouldn’t have appeal in two-team teasers, but I thought it might actually creep up to 10. San Diego has played much better down the stretch, so much so that they finished 12th in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA which gives more weight to more recent games. But Denver is just miles ahead of everyone in the AFC. I don’t think the game will really be in question at any point and think a backdoor cover is the only thing to worry about.”
Brett Talley The Fantasy Fix
“Don’t let their last match-up fool you — the Broncos are a much more complete team than Chargers. Von Miller’s absence is a concern, but I still feel good about laying the points.”
Greg Smith The Fake Football
“I can’t imagine San Diego looking as good as they did last week, and I’m sure Peyton will want to quiet the critics early. I’m more worried about a back-door cover than anything else.”
Kevin Kumpf Razzball
“The toughest game to pick, I expect the Broncos to win the game, but could see it staying very close throughout.”
Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall
“Shame on you if you think the Broncos have forgotten about their colossal collapse against the Ravens in double overtime last year. With Wes Welker back, the offense should be in full swing. While I expect the Chargers to not necessarily struggle to score, I don’ think they’ll cover the spread.”
Zach Greubel Gridiron ExpertsZach Greubel's most confident pick for this week
“Asking the Chargers to head into Denver and beat the Broncos for a second time in just over a month is too tall of a task. Running back Ryan Mathews was integral in the week 15 upset of Denver (29 carries for 127 yards and a score) and is not going to be healthy even if he hits the field this weekend. The Broncos get their offense rolling in the second half and leave the Chargers in their wake.”
Walton Spurlin FantasySharks
“Denver should pull away late to cover as long as the Broncos defense can get off the field on 3rd down.”
Nate Hodges Pro Football FocusNate Hodges's most confident pick for this week
“Yes, the Chargers improved as the season progressed – even winning at Denver in Week 15 – and they’ll try to keep Peyton Manning off the field with their run-heavy offense. I’m not buying the upset talk, though. Big win for the Broncos.”
John Halpin Fox Sports
“Peyton Manning is just a flat out stud and while defensively Denver is a liability, Peyton will not hesitate to throw four+ touchdowns against an inconsistent San Diego defense. Don’t count the Chargers out, after all this is a divisional rivalry, but I’m not confident Philip Rivers and the offense have what it takes to keep up with the high scoring Broncos. ”
Keet Bailey Breaking Football
“Giving the Broncos a week off to figure out a gameplan for a team they lost to in the regular season makes me like Denver in this one. While Rivers and the Bolts have been impressive to finish out the year, none of us envisioned them in the playoffs and I think they get brought back into reality in Denver. Ryan Mathews also ailing hurts them. ”
Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football
“Peyton Manning will lead the Broncos to victory and the Chargers just don’t have the defense to stop him. ”
James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
“The Chargers are the worst, or near the worst, in many different defensive metrics, both rushing and passing, in the NFL this season.”
Michael Pichan RotoInfo
“This is either a Bolts win or a Broncs blowout. My money is on Manning, despite the cold weather.”
Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain
“Have a hard time think Denver doesn’t win by more than 10 points. Sorry Philip Rivers, your awesome post game interviews will end this week.”
Paul Greco FantasyPros911
“I don’t think DEN can lose but maybe in the SB. Every game prior will be practice.”
Staff Rankings Draft CalcDraft Calc's most confident pick for this week

More Articles

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 5 min read
Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 10 min read
Thursday’s NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, CJ McCollum (3/28)

Thursday’s NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, CJ McCollum (3/28)

fp-headshot by Raju Byfield | 2 min read
3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

fp-headshot by Anthony Corrente | 2 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

7 min read

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Next Up - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Next Article