Does Alex Smith have what it takes to lead the Chiefs as a road dog in Indy?
The fantasy season may be over but that doesn’t mean we’re done asking the experts for advice. With 4 playoff games on tap this weekend, we’re sure more than a few of you have a “rooting” interest in the outcomes. To help steer you in the right direction, we polled 60+ experts to get their game picks (against spread).
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The early game on Saturday (4:35pm EST) features a rematch of two teams that squared off in Week 16: Kansas City & Indianapolis. Indy decidedly won that road contest (23-7). This time, the Colts get the added advantage of playing at home in Lucas Oil Stadium. The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be looking for their first playoff win since Joe Montana was taking snaps at QB and handing off to Marcus Allen (yes, it’s been that long). Here are the expert picks against the spread…
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Expert Pick %
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57% | 43% |
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Commentaries
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“Kansas City has not looked like themselves over the past few weeks and a big part of that has to do with their defense missing key players. They will be well rested after basically taking week 17 off, Justin Houston will be back, and Jamaal should eat up the Colts keeping Andrew Luck on the sidelines. ”
– Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football  “Indy has won six games (6-3) since Reggie Wayne was lost–most of which are non-quality wins (over HOU 2x, TEN. 2x, JAX). The only quality win they have in that span is vs. KC. It was “one of those games”–KC lost three fumbles. Indy should have killed them based on a 4-0 turnover advantage, but they didn’t. KC is not typically a turnover laden team. Since Wayne was lost, when Indy plays solid teams–they’ve usually been whacked (STL, CIN, ARI). We think the Week 16 vs. KC was a blip, and Indy gets whacked at home this week.”
– R.C. Fischer Fantasy Football Metrics “It’s easy to point to Kansas City’s Week 16 loss at home vs. Indy as a reason to pick the Colts, and furthermore, the Chiefs are 1-2 ATS in 2013 as underdogs. However, KC has been money in the bank away from Arrowhead ATS this season at 7-1. We’re taking a rested, Andy Reid-coached team and the points. ”
– Staff Rankings RosterWatch “KC has been on a bit of a slide as of late but will get it together against a strong Colts team.”
– Adrian Pereira eDraft “With essentially a week off in Week 17, the Chiefs will be coming in rested and ready to pay the Colts back for their Week 16 win in Kansas City. Alex Smith played poorly in that Week 16 game, and I expect him to play far better as the more complete team wins this one.”
– Jeff Brubach The Fake Football “Kansas City is usually thought of as a dominant home team but the numbers say they were better on the road this year with a 12.5 average scoring margin vs. 2.9 at home. The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.”
– Raju Byfield Win My Fantasy League “I like this game to be decided by a last-second FG here, where the road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams.”
– Brian Dezelske Pro Football Central “Andrew Luck has struggled against far worse defenses lately. The offensive line is crumbling, and the Colts inconsistency at WR scares me a bit. Not to mention, KC’s stars are rested”
– Adam Pfeifer Rant Sports “Indy is going to be incredible for years and years to come, but I think KC wins this game and plays mistake-free football.”
– Staff Rankings Draft Calc “Indianapolis struggles at times against teams with a strong pass rush. The Chiefs defense will present some matchup problems in this area. Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles and company should be able to score just enough to beat the Colts in a nail biter.”
– Nate Hodges Pro Football Focus “The Chiefs will welcome Justin Houston back and give them the edge rush they need to slow Andrew Luck and the Colts down. I’d be much more confident in taking the under in this game than either side, personally.”
– Staff Rankings 2MugsFF “The Colts have been hot and cold all season. They are the biggest Jekyll and Hyde team to make the Playoffs. Might have been easier for the Chiefs if the game was at Arrowhead but still think they can win in Indy. ”
– Bill Enright FFChamps “The Colts enter the postseason on a three-game winning streak including a 23-7 thumping of the Chiefs at Arrowhead. As inconsistent as the Colts have been, the Chiefs are 2-5 in their final seven games with wins only against the Raiders and Redskins. While I expect this game to be more competitive than it was a couple of weeks, I trust the Colts more than the slumping Chiefs to get the victory.”
– Kevin Hanson EDSFootball “Kansas City faced the Colts in Week 16 and lost by 16. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat, though. The Chiefs are built for the playoffs with a talented defense, a strong running game and an experienced, game-managing QB. Their Week 17 rest should help, too. ”
– Kevin English Draft Sharks “KC hasn’t won a playoff game since Joe Montana was at QB, but we expect this streak to end at Indi this week. ”
– Jordan Tozzi Legion Report “This game feels like a coin flip, so I’m taking the better defense and, more importantly, the points.”
– Greg Smith The Fake Football “This seems like a true 50/50 proposition, but I wouldn’t point to the Chiefs’ loss at home against the Colts in Week 16 as any important indicator of what will happen Saturday.”
– Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports “Defense wins championships and Jamal Charles is a one man army. ”
– Staff Rankings Fantasy Knuckleheads “I actually expect KC to win outright here. They are limping into the playoffs going 2-5 after starting out 9-0, but I still believe they have the better team here. Indy has not impressed me since Reggie Wayne went down, struggling on offense a lot until garbage time. KC might be getting Tamba Hali and should have Justin Houston back to get the defense back to full strength and should shut down Andrew Luck.”
– Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack “Kansas City didn’t exactly help itself in its Week 16 meeting with Indianapolis by giving Jamaal Charles a season-low 16 touches. HC Andy Reid publicly admitted after the loss he didn’t get offensive centerpiece enough action, so look for a correction on that end. It’s hard to pick against the team with the better quarterback at home, but Charles could dominate the Colts’ defense with 25 touches while a near-healthy Chiefs’ defense (presumably with OLBs Justin Houston AND Tamba Hali this time around) should have much more success in the rematch.”
– Doug Orth FFToday “Kansas City defense, and the big play ability from Jamaal Charles is the difference in this one. ”
– Sean Beazley EDSFootball “Kansas City LB Justin Houston coming back will make all the difference here. KC’s defense is an entirely different animal with him in the lineup and I just don’t think Indy has enough to do much of anything in the playoffs.”
– Dawgmatica Pyromaniac “Something tells me the Chiefs went vanilla two weeks ago and that big win for the Colts isn’t what we think it is. That, and the Chiefs are simply a better team than the Colts. Indy at home might make it interesting, but I think KC is better than a lot of people think.”
– Kevin Roberts NFL Soup “Jamaal Charles should/will feast on Indy’s defense and I have no faith in Pep Hamilton’s ability to game plan against this defense”
– Chad Scott The Fake Football “The Chiefs come into the game healthy and rested. I like their defense to play well and upset the Colts who have struggled for offensive consistency since losing Reggie Wayne. ”
– Walton Spurlin FantasySharks “Tough road game, but the Chiefs’ defense should shut down the Colts’ offense.”
– Steve Wyremski Dynasty League Football “Even though the Colts beat the Chiefs 23-7 two weeks ago, the Chiefs rested all of their starters last week. Furthermore, they are (6-2) on the road this year. I look for the Chiefs to not only cover the spread, but win the rematch.”
– Derek Lofland Fantasy Football Maniax |
“KC has been thriving on a good defense and mediocre offense all year. In many ways they’ve been exposed as a fraud towards the tail end of the season as they finished off having defeated only one opponent with a .500 record or better all season. Indianapolis has been putting the pieces back together of late, and they delivered a solid loss to the Chiefs in Week 16. Look for a repeat.”
– Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland “Indianapolis has the better quarterback and is playing at home, so that’s a start. Aside from that, they’re the hotter team entering the game – including a convincing win over Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium. They match up well against the Chiefs, who are a team with a resume that isn’t as strong as their record suggests. They faced a number of backup quarterbacks this year, which helped in boosting their record; they lost three of their most meaningful games (vs San Diego and both Denver games); and they finished just 2-4 in their last six “actual” games (Week 17 excluded).”
– Ryan Hester footballandbrackets “After starting 9-0, Kansas City lost five of their last seven. The worst of those losses was just two weeks ago at Arrowhead against the Colts. Traveling to Indianapolis won’t help the Chiefs turn the tide against the only squad to defeat both the Broncos and the Seahawks during the regular season.”
– Austin Lee Pro Football Focus “The Colts thoroughly smashed the Chiefs on the road this season, and Kansas City was playing for the AFC West crown at the time. Indianapolis is favored, but this seems like it would be an upset.”
– Alessandro Miglio Pro Football Focus “The Chiefs have won only once all season against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record, and that was back in week 3. Otherwise they have lost to all, including Indianapolis in KC two weeks ago. Colts finished the season strong whereas the Chiefs lost 5 of their last 7 games, managing to only beat lowly Washington and Oakland. ”
– Russ Bliss Fantasy Football Starters “Indianapolis, fresh off a 23-7 win over Kansas City in Week 16, has a lot going for them as they return to the playoffs for a second straight season with Andrew Luck under center. The Colts boast a 6-2 record at home that include impressive wins over Super Bowl favorites Denver and Seattle. On the flip side, they’ve also experienced blowout losses to the Rams, Cardinals and Bengals. Indianapolis is certainly a dangerous team, but they’ve been inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 6-2 on the road and are coming off a game during which they nearly defeated the Chargers without their best players. MVP candidate Jamaal Charles should see a massive workload Saturday and Kansas City’s chances of winning this game will come down whether or not the Colts can stop him. Also, Alex Smith will also need to take care of the football after committing three turnovers in the Week 16 bout. My guess is Robert Mathis and company disrupt the KC QB enough that the Colts will take advantage, cover the spread and advance to the Divisional round.”
– Ryan Rufe RotoBaller “I’m going with dome field advantage in this one. I think it will be very close, but I’ll take Andre Luck’s 2 minute drill over Alex Smith’s. ”
– Chet Gresham The Fake Football “The Colts have had some major quality wins this season, including Denver, Seattle, San Francisco and Kansas City. If Indianapolis can beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead 23-7 they should be able to take care of them at home this weekend.”
– Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts “The stat you need to know: Kansas City has not beaten a team in the playoffs since week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Look for the Colts to load the box against the running attack of Jamaal Charles and force Alex Smith into passing situations and turnovers. ” “Indianapolis had Kansas City’s number a few weeks ago when they met, in Kansas City. This weekend, Kansas City travels to Indianapolis for round 2. Kansas’ defense is a miserable shell of it’s early season success, and is having real difficulty with real contenders. The Colts have alsoThe Kool-Aid man will not be making an appearance following this game.”
– Nathan Miller Revelation Sports “Indy plastered KC the last time they met; Indy won’t be able to plaster them a again, but you would have to bet that Indy can beat them again. ”
– James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru “Tough call, but I feel like the Chiefs live off turnovers, and they’re not likely to get them from Andrew Luck. I’ll take the home team in this tossup.”
– John Halpin Fox Sports “Behind a 300+ passing yards and 2-3 passing TD performance by Andrew Luck, our Analyzer software game predictor has the Colts beating the Chiefs by 8 points; 29-21”
– Site Projections Fantasy Football Starters “I like Indy’s record as an underdog and Ty Hilton has been getting back to form.”
– Ross Miles Pro Football Focus “The toughest game on the board. Indy is so tough to peg. The Colts’ defense has been decent lately, home field will help, and Andrew Luck is a better playmaker than Alex Smith.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl “The Colts faced the Chiefs just two weeks ago and had no problem dominating KC as they won 23-7. The Colts have also beaten the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers this season and always seem to play their best against the NFL’s elite teams.”
– Igor Derysh XN Sports “It comes down to picking the team that has played better recently. While it’s always tough to beat an opponent twice within a few weeks, Indy looks like a team that can do it.”
– Staff Rankings FFLockerRoom “The Colts’ Luck is not going to run out anytime soon as the Chiefs limp into Indy.”
– Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain “The Colts are are one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs, and they beat Kansas City at Arrowhead in week 16 23-7. The Colts have also have gone 7-3 in their last 10 against the spread when playing the Chiefs. I love the match up of Andrew Luck going against a 25th ranked KC passing defense that allows 248 yards per game, and they allowed Luck to go 26-37 for 241 in week 16 on the road. ”
– Dan Yanotchko EDSFootball “Since November 17th, the Chiefs are 2-5 and even lost to the Colts at home 23-7 during that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Colts record is the same…if you looked at it in a mirror: 5-2. Add in home field, it’s hard for me to get behind the Chiefs winning despite the great season they’ve had.”
– Sky Sperling Razzball “I can’t ignore Indianapolis’ recent road throttling of Kansas City. The Colts were led by a big day from Donald Brown that can’t be guaranteed this week, nor can the limited workload (13 carries and five catches) from Jamaal Charles, but Indy’s line held up well (just one sack) against KC’s pass rush, and I think it can do the same this week. Look for the Colts to aim to get Brown (and regrettably Trent Richardson) going early, again. KC comes in 6-1 ATS on the road in their last seven against Indy who is 5-1 ATS in their last six at home. Something’s gotta give, and I’ll go with that fate befalling the road team this week.”
– Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR “These two teams could not have had more different seasons. Indianapolis played down to their competition too often and paid for it with several bad losses, but they played great when it mattered most picking up wins against the 49ers, the Seahawks, the Broncos, and these same Chiefs just two week ago in Kansas City. On the other hand, Kansas City took care of business against the teams they should have but struggled to a 1-5 record against playoff teams. I have to see the Chiefs beat a good team before I will trust them in the playoffs, and I do not see it happening in Indianapolis.”
– Raymond Summerlin Pro Football Addicts |
Thanks to the experts for stopping by to give us their picks. Feel free to let us know if you agree with their take in the comments.
