Will this new connection of Philip Rivers to Keenan Allen outshine the explosive Andy Dalton to A.J. Green?
After a 17-10 regular season defeat, a confident San Diego Chargers team will look for a different result against the AFC Division champs Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati meanwhile will hope for a similar result to the last time these two teams met in a playoff game where the Bengals walked away with a (27-7) win in what was dubbed the “Freezer Bowl”.
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Like the last time these teams met in the playoffs, weather will be a story much like many of the first round playoff games this year. With freezing and windy conditions in the forecast, both teams will need their running games to step up and hang onto the ball. Can Cincinnati remain undefeated at home this season or will the surging Chargers up their four game winning streak to five? Read on to get the experts’ picks against the spread.
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43% | 57% |
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“The Chargers are a dangerous playoff team coming off a big win while Cincy is a team with a good defense and an on-again-off-again offense that seems to lose its identity often. I’ve liked the Bengals all season and had hopes that they would evolve into a more well rounded force to be reckoned with, but I just don’t think they’re that team yet. I expect the Bengals to stumble and suffer the upset.”
– Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland “San Diego can move the ball effectively and should be able to do that against a defense that hasn’t been the same since injuries to Leon Hall and Geno Atkins. Andy Dalton showed last week that he still isn’t a fully trustworthy quarterback. Despite the inevitable “Cincinnati is 8-0 at home” and “The Chargers barely beat Kansas City’s backups” talk we’ll hear all week, San Diego may surprise us all and win this game outright. ”
– Ryan Hester footballandbrackets  “The Bengals should win, but the Chargers have been playing close games all year. The teams were separated by one touchdown in their last meeting—in San Diego, to be fair—and the Chargers have been playing better since then.”
– Alessandro Miglio Pro Football Focus “I don’t trust Andy Dalton, but I do trust his supporting cast at home. I think defense, AJ Green and Gio Bernard are enough to win this one, but 7 points is a bit much for me. The Chargers are experts at slowing the game down and I think they keep it close enough to beat this spread. ”
– Chet Gresham The Fake Football “Why did the NFL make the Chargers travel East for a 1 p.m. Sunday game when they could have easily put them in the 4:30 Saturday slot? Anyway, here’s a fun stat: The Bengals have averaged 41.6 points in their last five home games. I think the Bengals win, but the Bolts should keep it close.”
– John Halpin Fox Sports “This is one of those games where I’m feeling a Cincy win, but I’m not feeling the spread of +7.”
– Staff Rankings Draft Calc “Like Bengals to go 9-0 at home, but I’ll take the most points the weekend offers.”
– Dan Clasgens Get Sports Info “I’ve heard that San Diego doesn’t travel east well, but they have one solid win against Philadelphia this year on the road and another win vs Jacksonville. Cincinnati wins this contest, but 7 points is too big a number for them to cover.”
– Staff Rankings 2MugsFF “I was shocked to see the Chargers getting 7 points. I think they win this game outright. ”
– Bill Enright FFChamps “Rivers and Mathews are underrated and seem to be firing in all cylinders right now.”
– Ross Miles Pro Football Focus “Winners of four straight and five of their past six games, the Chargers enter the postseason on a roll and have the ability to at least keep this game within a touchdown. Not only did Philip Rivers tie his career high in passer rating while throwing only 11 interceptions, Ryan Mathews has more than 1,000 rushing yards since Week 6. Only LeSean McCoy and Eddie Lacy have more during that stretch.”
– Kevin Hanson EDSFootball “I switched back and forth on this one. I fully expect the Bengals to win this game, but San Diego is feisty enough to keep it close”
– Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports “I think Cincy wins the game, but they have a way of keeping teams in the game, so SD hangs around.”
– Ken Zalis Fans Fantasy Football “San Diego is on a roll right now winning four in a row to get into the playoffs. Three of those four wins were against sub-par opponents (including what should have been a loss to the Chiefs backups). With that said I’m not picking them to win, but expect them to cover the spread.”
– Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack “San Diego is arguably playing better football than any other team in the AFC at the moment. However, no team playing this weekend appears to like playing at home more than Cincinnati. The Chargers are playing too well to become the latest team to get steamrolled at Paul Brown Stadium and should beat the spread as a result, but do not match up well with the Bengals’ front seven and are unlikely to score enough to win straight up. ”
– Doug Orth FFToday “Cincinnati will win this game, but seven points is too much to give up in the playoffs, especially since San Diego lost by more than seven points just twice all season. Turnovers should also play a big part in keeping the game close, something Rivers (11 INTs on the season) has over Dalton (20 INTs on the season) as well.”
– Dawgmatica Pyromaniac “I’m not sure that the Chargers can pull off a win on the road but something in my gut tells me that the Bengals are due for a huge letdown. The defense has been bailing them out all season and Andy Dalton has looked awful at times. This one could come down to an interception return for a score late in the game and both clubs are capable of doing that.”
– Staff Rankings FFLockerRoom “Call the Chargers a team of destiny if you want, but I just don’t believe in Andy Dalton or these Bengals. It’s all about ball control. Can Ryan Mathews pound the rock and dictate the pace? If so, San Diego could begin to look like an interesting dark horse.”
– Kevin Roberts NFL Soup “The Chargers barely squeaked into the playoffs, but seven points feels like a big margin for error in this pick. I’ll take the Bengals to win 21-17, but the Chargers +7.”
– Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain “Cincy will win because of their defense and because they’re at home but I don’t see this one being anything but close. I haven’t seen enough from the offensive playcalling nor the Red Rocket Andy Dalton to believe in a touchdown+ win. ”
– Sky Sperling Razzball “Cincy has been phenomenal the past few weeks, but a touchdown is a bit too much given the solid offensive play of the Chargers.”
– Steve Wyremski Dynasty League Football “Cincinnati has been playing so well at home this season it would be easy to take Bengals and not think twice about it, but last time I checked Andy Dalton still quarterbacks the Bengals and is still awful at football. I do not trust Dalton to win a playoff game, and I certainly do not trust him to cover a seven point spread.”
– Raymond Summerlin Pro Football Addicts |
“Andy Dalton has been one of the streakiest QBs in the league, but has been heating up as of late throwing 11 touchdowns in his last 4 games. Cincy’s strength is stopping the run, so the Chargers will have to find another way to move the ball rather than Ryan Mathews, who has carried them as of late. ”
– Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football “The Chargers are the only team with five regular season wins against playoff teams, but Cincinnati is the superior squad in almost every aspect of this matchup. The Bengals will extend the longest active home winning streak in the NFL to 10 games.”
– Austin Lee Pro Football Focus “Cincy has won 9 of their last 12, and two of those three losses were in OT to decent teams (BAL, MIA). Cincy went 8-0 at home this season, and may be the best unit rolling into the playoffs right now. San Diego has been great of late, 5-1 in their last six games–their lone loss in that span was at Cincy by 7 points. I like both teams heading into the playoffs, but I’ll take the one not traveling west-to-east, and the one accustomed to playing in the snow/cold. ”
– R.C. Fischer Fantasy Football Metrics “This a lot of points to lay as Andy Dalton still comes with questions about his arm in cold weather conditions, but the Bengals have won their last 4 homes games by an average of 20 points. I’ve been waiting all season for Philip Rivers to revert to being the Philip Rivers we’ve seen the last 2 seasons and think it comes this week. ”
– Russ Bliss Fantasy Football Starters “Undefeated at home this season, including three wins against playoff teams (Packers, Patriots and Colts), the Cincinnati Bengals (-7) seem like a sure bet to beat a Chargers team that just barely got past the Chiefs’ second stringers. The Bengals are the biggest favorite of the weekend, and considering they’re defeating opponents by an average of 17.6 points at home this year, I feel confident that they’ll easily cover seven points and beat the Bolts to advance to the Divisional round of the playoffs.”
– Ryan Rufe RotoBaller “The Chargers are lucky to even be in the playoffs, but I don’t think their time here will last long. They’ve been an unimpressive road team in 2013, losing away games to Tennessee, Oakland, Washington, Miami and Cincinnati. The Bengals defense will be too much for the Chargers to overcome, and while Andy Dalton has been inconsistent, he’ll do enough to cover the spread.”
– Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts “The stat you need to know: Cincinnati is undefeated at home this season at 8-0. This game has the highest point spread of the weekend playoff games, and San Diego could keep it close, but I think that Cincinnati is a much better team at home. In the past 5 games, Cincinnati has scored at least 34 points. The weather will play a factor and I never like warm weather road teams during the playoffs. “The Chargers have a variety of weapons but the Bengals D will be too much for them to handle.”
– Adrian Pereira eDraft “I just can’t quite shake San Diego’s Week 17 performance against Kansas City’s backups from my mind and I don’t think they have the horses on offense to roll into Cincinnati and hand the Bengals their first home loss of the season. I’d feel more comfortable with this line at -6.5 or -6. but 27-17 seems reasonable.”
– Jeff Brubach The Fake Football “Cincinnati is undefeated at home, and plays incredibly well on their home turf. San Diego is lucky to be in the playoffs, and is facing a hot team with a fantastic defense. Although San Diego has found a consistent ground game, the collective efforts of Cincinnati in all three phases of the game will be too much for them to handle.”
– Nathan Miller Revelation Sports “The Bengals are at home (haven’t lost at home yet) and have the superior defense. You have to go Bengals this week. ”
– James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru “Cincy is undefeated at home and has outscored opponents by 17.6 at Paul Brown Stadium. ”
– Raju Byfield Win My Fantasy League “I like the Bengals to cover the 7 points in a cold game where defense will play a big key against a Chargers team that is 0-4 against the spread in the last four meetings versus the Bengals.”
– Brian Dezelske Pro Football Central “Andy Dalton has 2 passing TD’s and 1 rushing TD against a Cinderella Chargers team that will turn the ball over 2-3 times. Philip Rivers will make it interesting late, but the Bengals will hold on to cover the spread by 1 and win by 8 points: 28-20.”
– Site Projections Fantasy Football Starters “The Chargers are an exciting team, but Cincinnati is undefeated at home this year (8-0). Despite injuries, their defense is still too good in my eyes.”
– Adam Pfeifer Rant Sports “Cincinnati is a dominant team at home. They’ll win and should cover, but it’ll be close.”
– Nate Hodges Pro Football Focus “My favorite play of the week. Don’t mind laying the points here at all. The Bengals are a good outfit. They’re being undervalued at this number, I believe.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl “Last week, San Diego struggled to beat the Chiefs’ backups. Now they travel across the country to face a Bengals team that’s undefeated at home this season. ”
– Kevin English Draft Sharks “Philip Rivers and company have been operating efficiently heading into the playoffs. We expect this to be a closer game than what many think. However, we think the undefeated home Bengals will prevail. ”
– Jordan Tozzi Legion Report “I don’t like laying this many points, but the Bengals are the more complete team. With help from the home crowd and the weather, Cincinnati’s staunch defense should limit Mike McCoy’s offense just enough to cover.”
– Greg Smith The Fake Football “The Bengals are as hot as anyone, winning five of their last six games, including a 17-10 victory in Week 13 at San Diego. The Chargers are hot too but came dangerously close to losing an overtime game against the Chiefs’ backups in Week 17.”
– Igor Derysh XN Sports “Philip Rivers 8 TD/9 Int in 7 playoff games. That ratio is just not going to cut it. The Bengals defense is very good at home, and I expect a big game from Andy Dalton. San Diego is 5-2 against teams with a winning record this season, but I can’t see them winning this one. ”
– Sean Beazley EDSFootball “I think this is the toughest game to predict, as you can never tell which San Diego team will show up. The Bengals beat the Chargers earlier this year, 17-10 at San Diego. The Bengals were a perfect 8-0 at home, and they have also gone 4-0 recently against the number when playing the Bolts.I love the match up of Andy Dalton and AJ Green going up against a pass defense that allows 259 yards per game and 66% completion percentage. I am going to lay the 7 here, as I think San Diego will have a rough day against a great Bengals defense. ”
– Dan Yanotchko EDSFootball “I’m only glad San Diego made the playoffs because it meant the Steelers didn’t. Cincy is unbeaten at home this year and are averaging 34.5 points/game over their last 4. This one seems like the easiest of calls (so naturally, I’ll be dead wrong).”
– Chad Scott The Fake Football “The Bengals are too balanced and built to play in the elements that will come into play this weekend. The Chargers defense can be exploited by the many Bengals weapons.”
– Walton Spurlin FantasySharks “A full score is an awful lot to cover against a team that earned it’s way into the playoffs, but I think San Diego’s defense lets them down on the road. At long last, Cincinnati has a home playoff game after getting bounced in Houston in each of the last two seasons and I think they’ll take advantage in a stadium where they are 8-0 this season. Andy Dalton owns a polished 20:9 TD:INT Ratio at home, and draws a pass defense that has given up the 4th most passing YPG league wide. Expect Dalton to post one of the ‘boom’ weeks in his boom or bust season (5 weeks 1 or fewer TDs, 6 weeks 3 or more including four at home), and the Bengals to cover at home, where they’ve done so five straight times.”
– Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR “The Bengals are a perfect (8-0) at home this year and even though Andy Dalton had four picks against the Baltimore Ravens last week, they still won by 17 points. I think the Bengals win big at home against a Chargers team that was barely able to beat the Chiefs second string at home last week.”
– Derek Lofland Fantasy Football Maniax |
Thanks to the experts for stopping by to give us their picks. Feel free to let us know if you agree with their take in the comments.
