Is Colin Kaerpernick going to run wild again in Green Bay?
In what will be the only playoff rematch from last year, the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers are making us all anxious to see which team will move forward in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers is back and he showed why he is a perennial pro bowl candidate in the final seconds of Green Bay’s regular season game. On the other side, the 49ers are red hot (pun intended) and their six game win streak is on the line as they hit the road to Lambeau Field. Come Sunday (4:30pm EST), our anxiousness will turn to excitement as these two championship contending teams will duke it out in what is surely to be a wet and wild game.
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A high of 5 degrees and a wind chill of -30 is not meant for the weak. These two teams will be battling not just one another, but the harshest weather conditions the NFL playoffs may ever see. Bad weather typically leads to turnovers, low scores and lots of running. With a revamped running game, Eddie Lacy and the Packers offensive line will need to be strong against a stout 49ers defensive line and a team that seems designed for these types of games. Although they are the road team, the 49ers are the favorite to win with a healthy Michael Crabtree moving the chains and a QB who has been in this situation before. Don’t take my word for it though, read on to get the experts’ picks against the spread.
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59% | 41% |
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“The 49ers are getting healthy just in time for a tough NFC playoff battle. For that matter, so are the Packers with the return of both Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb. I think this one is going to be a close one, and in the end it’s going to come down to San Francisco’s defense being a big too much for the Pack. Green Bay has struggled in their run defense, and I expect Frank Gore to have a good day.”
– Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland “Green Bay is the only playoff team to lose all of its playoff-team matchups during the regular season, going 0-3, including losing to San Francisco in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb knocked off some of the rust against a weak Bears secondary on Sunday, but their lack of playing time this year will become more evident against a stout Niners defense.”
– Austin Lee Pro Football Focus “With Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are 6-2 this season, but all of their wins against non-playoff teams. Every time they have faced a playoff team this season with Rodgers–they’ve been beaten (CIN, SF). The 49ers have won six in-a-row, and 11 of 13. Their two losses in that span were by a total of four points–both losses to quality teams (NO, CAR). I don’t believe in teams having another team’s “number,” but SF seems to have GB’s number the past two seasons. ”
– R.C. Fischer Fantasy Football Metrics “If the Packers were at full strength this could be a close game, but defensively they’re a mess having allowed 25 or more points to opponents in all but 1 of their last 10 games. The 49ers come into the playoffs on a 6 game winning streak, and if not for two close losses back in weeks 10 and 11, would be the top seed in the NFC. ”
– Russ Bliss Fantasy Football Starters  “Defense. That’s why I think the 49ers will come out on top. The Packers had a storybook ending on Sunday but their defense just isn’t reliable while San Francisco’s is one of the most reliable in the league. I’ll take a great defense and a good offense over a great offense and a mediocre at best defense. ”
– Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts “The stat you need to now: San Francisco ranks 3rd in rushing with 137.6 yards per game this season. Aaron Rodgers at QB significantly improves Green Bay’s chances in this game, but San Francisco is peaking and is the only NFC team that can compete with Seattle. Look for San Francisco to expose Green Bay’s run defense, and Colin Kaepernick will make key passes when needed. ” “The 49ers have a more well balanced roster and the Packers will be eliminated once again at the hands of the 49ers.”
– Adrian Pereira eDraft “Two words: 49ers Defense. Hate to see the Packers lose for a second year in a row, but it’s just too hard to believe they can handle the 49ers this week. ”
– James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru “Over their last 13 games, the Niners have lost a close one to the Panthers and a questionable one to the Saints, and that’s it. Also, the Packers can’t stop ANYBODY.”
– John Halpin Fox Sports “A weak Green Bay defense will be the key here against a tough running game from the 49ers. San Fran is also 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five games versus the Green Bay Packers.”
– Brian Dezelske Pro Football Central “With no Clay Matthews to chase him down, Colin Kaepernick accounts for 3 TD’s on the road. Aaron Rodgers keeps the Packers close, but the 49ers pull out an 8 points win and become the only road team to win in the Wild Card round; 30-22. ”
– Site Projections Fantasy Football Starters “San Francisco should be able to pound the ball at the Packers front who struggled to stop the Bears last week. The 49ers defense should be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers although it won’t be an easy task.”
– Nate Hodges Pro Football Focus “The Sunday forecast in Green Bay calls for a high in the single digits and a negative low, and that’s without adjusting for the wind-chill! The outcome for this game however, will be determined by how “hot” Colin Kaepernick is and that’s exactly what he’s been when he’s faced Green Bay. In his last two games against the Packers, including last year’s playoff victory, he has amassed 675 passing yards and 5 passing touchdowns along with 203 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. He is coming off his first 300 yard passing game since his week one victory against whom else, but the Pack. Colin will also have Michael Crabtree back, who was not able to play week one but had 9 catches for 119 yards and 2 TDs in last year’s playoff win. Colin will not have to face Clay Matthews who has been ruled out due to a thumb injury and had 1 of GB’s 2 sacks in week one. The other sack? Johnny Jolly and he’s now on injured reserve. That’s not good news for a defense allowing 26.8 points per game. At this point in the year, the ground games of both teams are running smoothly and you know Aaron Rodgers will get his despite the edge on defense being greatly slanted toward San Fran. I expect LaMichael James to counter Green Bay’s scoring plays with big returns as Mason Crosby ranks 36th in the league in touchback percentage and only has 3 touchbacks at home all year. The spread reflects a slight edge for San Fran, but I think Phil Dawson gets a late opportunity to “push” passed the 3 point spread forcing the Packers to score a touchdown on their final drive and fail. The 49ers are primed to make another run to the Super Bowl in a 27-21 victory on the road.”
– Scott Whitfield Roto Rankings “Frank Gore and defense will prevail on the extremely frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.”
– Dan Clasgens Get Sports Info “It’s tough to take a 3-point road favorite, but just like each of their last 3 matchups, San Francisco is the better team across the board. I realize that it will be cold in Green Bay, but I’m feeling confident that this will actually benefit the more physical 49ers team more than it will the Packers. At the end of the day, you can count on the 49ers defense to stop the Packers offense. I wouldn’t say the same for the opposite.”
– Staff Rankings 2MugsFF “Toughest of the 4 wildcard games to predict. San Fran beat up on the Packers the last three outings, but San Fran is hot at the right time while the Packers somewhat limped their way in the post-season. ”
– Bill Enright FFChamps “Hey, I’m a Wisconsin-born Packer fan, but I can’t back the Pack in this one. Colin Kaepernick, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have embarrassed Dom Capers’ defense in the last two meetings between these teams. That said, I’m more apt to play the total (over) with my own money than take a side. The disappearance of the 49ers’ running game is cause for concern, and a home win by the Packers wouldn’t exactly be stunning.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl “San Francisco comes to Green Bay with a projected weather forecast of 0 Degrees and a low of -18 Degrees. We feel that these temperatures will limit what Colin Kaepernick does best, but we’re still going with the spread on SF. ”
– Jordan Tozzi Legion Report “Road favorites are always a risky proposition, but the 49ers have a distinct advantage in the coaching match-up and their smash-mouth style of play is well suited to topple the Packers, even in Lambeau. ”
– Greg Smith The Fake Football “The Packers have a great offense with Aaron Rodgers back but their defense is highly questionable. The Niners have no questions, ranking 11th in scoring and third in points allowed. They’ve also won six straight games, including victories over the Seahawks and the Cardinals.”
– Igor Derysh XN Sports “I know Aaron Rodgers is back, but there was plenty of rust shown against the Bears. The 49ers have a much better defense and have had the Packers number the last few times they’ve played including a 34-28 win Week 1 this season and a 45-31 victory last year in the playoffs.”
– Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack “Green Bay hasn’t been able to contain San Francisco’s offense in any one of the three meetings between the teams over the past two seasons, so it would be a surprise if the Packers could turn things around this weekend without their best defensive player (Clay Matthews). This budding rivalry has consistently produced exciting games, but the Niners are a more complete team at this point with the potential to make another Super Bowl run.”
– Doug Orth FFToday “This game should come down to defense and who can stop who more often. If this is the case, then San Francisco comes out on top.”
– Dawgmatica Pyromaniac “The 49ers have been playing great football as of late, and of course they seem to have the Packers number in recent history. The 49ers won earlier this year in week 1 by a score of 34-28, and they also bounced the Pack from the playoffs last year 45-31. Colin Kaepernick had a field day against the Packers, throwing for 412 yards and 3 scores, and the Pack hasn’t improved their pass defense much giving up 247 yards per game. This game will be won on the ground by San Fransisco, as the Packers rush defense allows 125 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry on the year. The 49ers will ride Gore all the way here on the road, and Kaepernick loves playing the Pack, so I will lay the 3 here. ”
– Dan Yanotchko EDSFootball “As magical as it is that Green Bay has reached the playoffs after A-Rod’s return, they still have the same pressing defensive issues that they’ve had most of the season. Though I highly doubt another huge day from Kaepernick on the ground is in the works, Green Bay probably gets the worst matchup they could’ve taking on a 49ers team that seems to be coming into its own at the right time of the year. ”
– Sky Sperling Razzball “The 49ers can run or pass the ball effectively on a suspect Packers defense. Look for Kaepernick to also use his legs a lot more now that the post season is here. Defense wins this one and the 49ers are hands down better than Green Bay in that department.”
– Walton Spurlin FantasySharks “49ers’ defense is too strong and the Niners with Crabtree has improved the offensive flow.”
– Steve Wyremski Dynasty League Football “The 49ers have owned the Packers in their last three meetings. The 49ers have a defense that can slow the Packers offense and they run the ball well. Those are qualities that should serve them well in the cold elements of Lambeau Field. I look for the 49ers to win in Green Bay and cover the spread.”
– Derek Lofland Fantasy Football Maniax “The Packers obviously played San Francisco tough Week 1 and deserve some respect for it, but these this is an awful matchup for Green Bay. Colin Kaepernick simply dominates this defense. He has 878 total yards in only two career games with the Pack, and Green Bay will be without Clay Matthews on Sunday. Even with Aaron Rodgers back, that type of offensive domination is hard to overcome.”
– Raymond Summerlin Pro Football Addicts |
“With Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb back in the fold, Green Bay isn’t your typical eight-win, “snuck into the playoffs” team. Rodgers makes the whole team better – even the defense, as he’ll help the offense possess the ball more effectively. Green Bay is this year’s top “first weekend team to make a surprising Super Bowl run” candidate. After all, it seems we have one every season.”
– Ryan Hester footballandbrackets “It’s all too much of a Cinderella story with Rodgers and Cobb coming back to beat the Bears in week 17. Their momentum should carry forward against the 49ers. He tagged them for 333 yards and 3 TDs back in week one, though they lost that game by a score. At home, I’ll take the Packers. ”
– Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football “The last two meetings have seen the 49ers eviscerate the Packers defense, but they have been in San Francisco. ”
– Alessandro Miglio Pro Football Focus “The Niners are riding a six game winning streak heading into a playoff rematch with the Packers — a team they’ve beaten in three straight match-ups. All signs point to San Francisco winning this game, but in the frozen tundra of Green Bay – where the high temperature is expected to be 4 degrees on Sunday with snow – anything can happen. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and company keep this game close enough where, win or lose, the three points will be enough to make a difference.”
– Ryan Rufe RotoBaller “I don’t feel good about picking a winner in this one so I’m going to take the points. The Packers have their offensive stars back in the fold, but more importantly Eddie Lacy is there to soften up the guts of that tough defense. ”
– Chet Gresham The Fake Football “I always enjoy taking home dogs, especially in the playoffs. San Francisco is a very impressive team but with Green Bay riding the emotional high of Aaron Rodgers’ return and a NFC North title, they could pull off the upset here. Rodgers needs to be at the top of his game to get the win but he is fully capable of doing so this week.”
– Jeff Brubach The Fake Football “Green Bay has their franchise QB back behind center, and Rodgers was able to shake off what little rust he accumulated last week. San Francisco has started to find a groove offensively with the return of Crabtree, but in the frigid cold of Lambeau, the home team takes this one and returns the favor for playoff defeats.”
– Nathan Miller Revelation Sports “Everyone is pegging the 49ers as their sleeper team to repeat as NFC champions, but betting against Aaron Rodgers in the elements of Lambeau Field seems like a losing proposition. The Packers have won 67% of their home games ATS over the last four seasons. ”
– Jody Smith Gridiron Experts “With Green Bay at home and with full game under his belt to shake the rust off Aaron Rodgers should be sharp. I will gladly take the 3 points given in what could be a close but high scoring affair leaning towards the Packers favor. ”
– Terrance Bridgett FantasyTrade411 “The blueprint is out on Colin Kaepernick, and after being torched by him during last year’s playoffs, I think they learn a thing or two. The game will be high-scoring, as GB’s defense is vulnerable, but with Rodgers and Cobb back, and after a massive win, I think they ride that momentum and pull off the upset.”
– Adam Pfeifer Rant Sports “San Fran is the safe call, but at home in GB, I just can’t envision Rodgers not properly utilizing all those offensive weapons. Kaep is a good QB, and he will only get better, but his journey may have to begin again next season.”
– Staff Rankings Draft Calc “With Rodgers and Cobb back the Packers are a different beast, plus they now have a bell cow back in Eddie Lacy to run out games.”
– Ross Miles Pro Football Focus “The 49ers are as talented and well-rounded as any team in the league, but the Packers got a shot in the arm with the return of Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb. While I could see this game going either way, it’s hard to pass up Rodgers and the Packers getting points at Lambeau.”
– Kevin Hanson EDSFootball “The Niners’ 12-win season was rewarded with them having to play in Lambeau Field in not exactly Bay Area conditions (http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail4/USWI0288) against a Packers team with a suddenly healthy Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb.”
– Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports “I will always take the home dog…especially in the playoffs. Mr. Rodgers finds a way.”
– Ken Zalis Fans Fantasy Football “Revenge game here for the Packers. The difference to me in this one is Eddie Lacy. Rodgers doesn’t necessarily need to have a monster game to win it. Home field plays a huge factor. ”
– Sean Beazley EDSFootball “Two words, Aaron Rodgers. And if you need two more, Randall Cobb. They were the difference makers last week and Rodgers knocked the rust off to get the job done when it counted.”
– Staff Rankings FFLockerRoom “Call me crazy, but I don’t think Green Bay got into the playoffs on accident. Everything worked perfectly down the stretch and Aaron Rodgers proved to be the missing link, all along. If this game was in the Bay Area, I give it to the 49ers, hands down. But it’s in cold Lambeau, where I like the Pack by a small margin.”
– Kevin Roberts NFL Soup “Rodgers to Cobb is back and in full effect at home in the playoffs.”
– Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain “Perhaps the biggest upset of the week will happen in Green Bay’s home stadium. As hot as the Niners are, there’s something magical about Lambeau in January. Throw in some bone-chilling weather and return of Aaron Rodgers – you have yourself a perfect storm for an upset. ”
– Chad Scott The Fake Football “Aaron Rodgers’ first game back featured both rust and clutch Quarterback play. With a week to shake off the former, count on Rodgers building on the momentum that comes from the 4th quarter fireworks to keep his team within a field goal this week. The 49ers have won three straight in this series, including last year at this time and this season’s opener but with Frank Gore posting just a ‘so-so’ second half (five of eight post bye games under 4.0 YPC, two of his nine TDs during that span), San Francisco may not be well equipped to take advantage of Green Bay’s struggling run defense on the road.”
– Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR “I expect the Packers to make a deep run. Aaron Rodgers being back changes the entire landscape of the NFC playoffs. While the Packers have lost to the 49ers the last three times, all of those were in San Francisco. With Eddie Lacy proving that he is soon to be one of the league’s best running backs, the Packers offense just became much more formidable. Even with their defensive struggles, I not only think three points is too much to give, but that the Packers will win outright.”
– Jake Ciely RotoExperts |
Thanks to the experts for stopping by to give us their picks. Feel free to let us know if you agree with their take in the comments.
