Matt Schauf at DraftSharks.com takes a crack at the thankless pursuit of projecting the first round of the 2014 NFL draft.
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Why the heck does anyone bother doing a mock draft? The only sure thing is that most of it will turn out wrong. At this point, it’s not even remotely clear who’ll go #1. Get that pick incorrect and you start the dominos falling the wrong way.
So why do it? It’s fun.
I don’t travel to college all-star games or feast on game film. I have no inside info from scouts. I’m just a guy who watches a lot of football, has a dartboard and isn’t afraid to make a fool of himself. Here goes …
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1. Houston — Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida
Houston needs a QB. Bortles has the early momentum and the greatest physical upside.
2. St. Louis — Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
The offensive tackle need is overstated here. Joe Barksdale played well in 2013. The Rams still need offensive playmakers, though, and the rookie salary cap makes it easier to draft another top 10 wideout.
3. Jacksonville — Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
A polished, pro-ready QB who draws comparisons to Russell Wilson as a passer? Gus Bradley should take it.
4. Cleveland — Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
The Browns need a QB and a box-office draw. That’s 2 checks for Johnny Football … er, whatever he goes by now.
5. Oakland — Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
The Raiders gladly overlook any work-ethic questions to fill a big need with probably the draft’s biggest talent.
6. Atlanta — Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
Matthews looks safer, while Auburn’s Greg Robinson carries more upside. The Falcons need blockers. We’ll see which guy they prefer.
7. Tampa Bay — Khalil Mack, DE/OLB, Buffalo
At 251 pounds, Mack might prove a bit small for a full-time D-line spot. But a Von Miller-style hybrid role could give the Bucs some badly needed pass-rushing juice.
8. Minnesota — Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
DE Jared Allen looks like he’ll hit free agency and likely leave. Ealy didn’t blow up the Scouting Combine, but good luck finding anyone who doesn’t like him. NFL Network’s Mike Mayock compared him to San Francisco’s Aldon Smith.
9. Buffalo — Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Robinson should step in at right tackle immediately. LT Cordy Glenn’s presence makes it OK if he doesn’t grow into a franchise left tackle.
10. Detroit — Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
Shelve your Matt Millen jokes. He left town 6 years ago. And now the Lions need a WR to complement Calvin Johnson. Evans’ size-speed combo will treat Matthew Stafford well.
11. Tennessee — Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
New defensive coordinator Ray Horton would love to add this perfect scheme fit as he transitions a 4-3 defense into a 3-4 base.
12. N.Y. Giants — Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
A rugged, experienced Big Ten blocker to address the team’s biggest need? Good fit for the old Marine head coach.
13. St. Louis — Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
Cortland Finnegan’s proving how bad his free-agent contract was — at least, when he can stay healthy.
14. Chicago — Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
Veteran cornerback Charles Tillman is just about done. It’s time to nab his successor.
15. Pittsburgh — Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
Heath Miller’s getting old and didn’t match Ebron’s playmaking ability even at his peak.
16. Baltimore — C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama
Inside linebacker Daryl Smith fared well in 2013, but he’ll turn 32 and hit free agency in March.
17. Dallas — Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Even if the Cowboys retain veteran defensive tackle Jason Hatcher, he’s on the wrong side of 30. Donald couldn’t fit the Marinelli-Kiffin system much better than he does.
18. N.Y. Jets — Dee Ford, OLB, Auburn
Ford brings the talent and attitude to mesh nicely with Rex Ryan. It doesn’t hurt that he fills a big need, too.
19. Miami — Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame
Fail to address the offensive line, Dolphins, and you risk driving Ryan Tannehill to go all Incognito on his own car.
20. Arizona — Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
The Cards sit in a good spot to take a quarterback, with Carson Palmer around to ease the transition. Board value doesn’t match the need for an edge rusher here.
21. Green Bay — Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame
B.J. Raji’s a free agent. The presence of Nix and Timmy Jernigan in this class allow the Packers to move on if they’d like.
22. Philadelphia — Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
Philly’s defense could use an enforcer at the back end.
23. Kansas City — Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
Andy Reid used first-round picks on Freddie Mitchell and Jeremy Maclin in Philly, and second-rounders on Todd Pinkston and DeSean Jackson. He’s in a prime spot to add a playmaker to his new team.
24. Cincinnati — Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
The Bengals could use some help at defensive end, middle linebacker and in the secondary. Safety’s probably the weakest single position heading into 2014, though.
25. San Diego — Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
The Chargers allowed the league’s fourth highest completion rate and second most yards per catch last season. Please send corners.
26. Cleveland — Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
If the first round can yield a playmaking quarterback and a playmaking receiver, the Browns should be pretty happy.
27. New Orleans — Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
The Saints fared pretty well in pass coverage last season but dumped longtime star corner Jabari Greer afterward.
28. Carolina — Marqise Lee, WR, USC
A lackluster Combine could help Lee slip to this point in Round 1. Carolina should snap up a reliable — and high-ceiling — target to help Cam Newton grow.
29. New England — Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
Vince Wilfork’s coming off an Achilles’ tendon tear and will turn 33 in November. Good time to anoint an heir.
30. San Francisco — Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
There might still be higher-upside receivers on the board, but you can’t be a slouch and set SEC career marks in receptions and receiving yards. Matthews will leave the Niners set when Anquan Boldin retires.
31. Denver — Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
Good size, toughness, leadership (team captain) and a 4.49-second 40 time make Fuller a good fit for a team that needs to refurbish its secondary.
32. Seattle — Ra’Shede Hageman, DL, Minnesota
Hageman could step into the big-DE role cleared by Red Bryant’s release. And he can slide inside for passing situations, a la free agent Michael Bennett.
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