Sigmund Bloom breaks down the 25 best fantasy football prospects in this year’s NFL draft.
Note: This article is part of our series that highlights quality content from premium subscription sites. FootballGuys has been gracious enough to share a weekly article with our users for free. For additional FootballGuys insight, you can visit FootballGuys.com
Welcome to the latest installment of the Bloom rookie ratings. Congratulations if you own picks in the late first and early second round range. The depth at wide receiver and variation in opinions about who the “must draft in the first” talents are will make those picks very valuable this year. I would happily trade the #5 pick for the #10 and #14 this year, for instance. In general, I am a fan of trading down in this year’s rookie drafts unless you have a top 2 pick.
Quarterback, Wide Receiver, and Linebacker look better than last year. Sack-heavy scoring leagues will probably like this class better. Tight end is slightly better than last year at the top of the class. Running back is considerably worse than last year, and woe is you if you were holding an early-mid first hoping to address the position. You’d be better off trying to deal it for Andre Ellington.
[More Draft Coverage: View the best 2014 mocks in our NFL Mock Draft Database]
The Bloom rookie ratings are set with the following type of dynasty fantasy football league in mind:
- Full IDP lineups including DT and CB
- PPR, start 3 WR
- Deep lineups and rosters
Of course, depending on your league scoring and settings, the placement of some positions can change, but the tier breaks and rankings within position should be good to use across all league formats.
TIER 1 – LOW WR1 CEILING WITH A WR2 FLOOR
**I wouldn’t be trading out of either of these picks for picks later in the first round, only as part of a package to land a top 10 overall dynasty commodity**
1. Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson – There is no suspense as to who goes #1 in your rookie draft this year. Watkins doesn’t have the freakish size/speed/athleticism combination to threaten the rarefied air of the current top 5-6 dynasty wideouts, but otherwise, everything you want is there. He’ll likely land on a team with quarterback issues, so patience will be necessary.
NFL Comparison: Hyper-polished Torrey Smith
2. Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M – Another boring write it down in pen pick. Evans has the red zone and deep ball game to possibly eclipse Watkins in fantasy value when it is all said and done. He also has a chance for greater early impact if he ends up in Detroit at #10 – which is probably the tail end of his draft range.
NFL Comparison: Vincent Jackson three years into his pro career
TIER 2 – STRONG WR2 CEILING WITH STRONG WR3/FLEX FLOOR
**These picks are probably worth closer to Tier 3 than Tier 2, and I would deal one of them for two picks in Tier 3**
3. Odell Beckham, WR, LSU – I have a feeling this will be the boring, predictable #3 pick in every draft after he goes in the top 20 (if not top 16) of the draft. Like Watkins, Beckham’s size limits his ceiling (depending on destination), but his floor is very high.
NFL Comparison: Antonio Brown
4. Marqise Lee, WR, USC – Going into last season, Lee would have been neck-and-neck with Watkins on my board. Lots of factors – some under his control, some not – conspired to sink him this year, but Lee should remain in the top 35-40 picks of the NFL draft and top five picks of rookie drafts in almost any scenario. I love his aggressive approach to every aspect of playing wide receiver.
NFL Comparison: Middle-class Dez Bryant
5. Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon St – I have warmed to Cooks the more I watch him, but I worry about how he’ll perform against good corners and think he’ll be best-suited as a #2 in the NFL. A landing spot of Philadelphia could also lower his stock a bit.
NFL Comparison: Turbo-charged Emmanuel Sanders with healthy feet
TIER 3 – POTENTIAL TO BE MORE VALUABLE THAN TIER 2 WITH A LOWER FLOOR
6. Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech – Amaro is going to be drafted to basically do one thing: dominate as a receiver with size and physicality at the short and intermediate level in the middle of the field. Destination will be key, but if he is paired with a solid quarterback in a pass-friendly offensive scheme, he should be a perennial 90 catch player. Position scarcity dictates this ranking as much as Amaro’s fantasy-friendly profile.
NFL Comparison: Slower, more rugged Dennia Pitta with higher developmental ceiling
7. Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana – Latimer would stand out as a potentially special size/speed/athleticism prospect in a lesser wide receiver class. He’s also the best blocking wide receiver in the draft. Don’t be surprised if he goes in the first round.
NFL Comparison: Riley Cooper after he developed in NFL
8. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State – It’s either going to be heaven or hell for Benjamin. He has the size and pad speed and aggressiveness (at times) to be a mismatch nightmare and make big plays by the barrelful. He also is prone to concentration drops and generally slack stretches of play. If he can land with a good mentor like Michael Floyd and Alshon Jeffery did, watch out.
NFL Comparison: Braylon Edwards, good, bad, and ugly
9. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State – It’s totally feasible that no running backs will go in the first round of rookie drafts, but on the other hand, if Hyde lands in Tennessee or Atlanta, he could go in the top five to an RB-hungry team. He’s a power back with surprising moves and speed, but he won’t be a do-everything fantasy RB1 in any scenario.
NFL Comparison: Cedric Benson at UT
10. Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina – Ebron is going to provide more tactical value as a weapon in two tight end sets, creating mismatches in one-on-one coverage, than he will provide fantasy value as a go-to target in his team’s pass offense. He isn’t quite aggressive or physical enough to maximize his good, but not elite set of athletic traits. He’ll be overdrafted in fantasy rookie drafts unless he lands somewhere like Detroit.
NFL Comparison: Greg Olsen with more fluid athleticism
11. Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M – You won’t need to take Manziel this high to land him because quarterback is likely not a need for teams in your rookie draft. I’m a Manziel believer, and he’ll have the most fantasy-friendly skillset of any NFL quarterback not named Newton upon arrival. Even if he ends up being a bust, he’ll likely create fantasy fireworks during his descent.
NFL Comparison: Tony Romo with Michael Vick’s mentality as a runner
12. Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State – Adams isn’t speedy or huge, but his ability to win at the catch point and create separation with subtle changes of speed and footwork makes up for that. He probably won’t be a #1 receiver, but that might not matter if he lands in a great pass offense.
NFL Comparison: Hakeem Nicks without a billion leg injuries
13. Lache Seastrunk, RB, Oregon – You won’t find a back in this class who is more sudden or capable of the big play than Seastrunk. His receiving ability is a bit of an unknown, and he doesn’t really project as an everydown back, but he could still be a CJ Spiller/Andre Ellington type in an RBBC. Seastrunk needs to stop retreating and trying to turn every touch into a big play, or he could be a bust.
NFL Comparison: Off-Brand LeSean McCoy
14. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Alabama State – Crowell is situated somewhat similar to Christine Michael last year. His natural physical talent isn’t quite as stellar, and his character questions are larger, but if a team is willing to overlook his flaws and take him in the top 100 picks of the draft, then you should be willing to spend a top 15 pick on him. He could rocket up this board if he goes in the top two rounds, and probably won’t fall too far no matter how far he falls in the draft.
NFL Comparison: Bigger DeAngelo Williams
TIER 4 – RELATIVELY SAFE PICKS WITH LIMITED UPSIDE BECAUSE OF LOWER OVERALL CEILING FOR IDPS IN MOST LEAGUES
This tier break is lower than it is in most years because of the quality of the wide receiver class.
15. CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama – Expect Mosley to move up in the post-draft Bloom 100, as some of the offensive players ahead of him will land in less than ideal destinations, but he will definitely be drafted as an every-down linebacker with the ability to make plays in every facet of his duties. There are some long-term concerns about durability (Nick Saban was his coach after all), but Mosley should be an IDP stud from the word go.
NFL Comparison: Pre-Achilles Jon Beason
16. Khalil Mack, OLB/DE, Buffalo – Mack will probably get drafted as an OLB, although if Jacksonville takes him and puts him at LEO in Gus Bradley’s defense, he may move ahead of Mosley as the #1 IDP on the board. He can do everything from get after the quarterback on the edge, to play a ball thief in coverage and take it to the house.
NFL Comparison: John Abraham with some young Karlos Dansby mixed in
17. Aaron Donald, DT, Pitt – Consult your lineups and scoring system before taking Donald this high (Use Geno Atkins relative value as a yardstick), but if you start a defensive tackle and get five or more points per sack, he is an instant difference maker who will be a great use of a second-round rookie pick. His first step is just plain unfair, and he’ll probably create as many sacks for his teammates as he racks up for himself.
NFL Comparison: Geno Atkins
18. Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State – Shazier isn’t the most consistent at diagnosing plays or wrapping up, but he’ll be an every-down linebacker with ridiculous range and the ability to add value as a blitzer. Like many of the top IDPs, his destination will define his role and give a better idea of where he fits in rookie drafts.
NFL Comparison: Daryl Washington
TIER 5 – BOOM/BUST OR LOWER CEILING WIDE RECEIVER PROSPECTS, OR BLUE CHIP PROSPECTS HURT BY POSITIONAL VALUE
19. Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State – Robinson is a real riddle. He can do breathtaking things in the open field at times, but he doesn’t use his natural size and athleticism as a weapon often enough. He is a small receiver in a big receiver’s body. It is early enough in his development to project Robinson as one of the best receivers in this class if he figures it out, but that is too risky to spend a first-round rookie pick on.
NFL Comparison: Brandon LaFell with “good hands” Koren Robinson ceiling
20. Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt – Matthews had a great Senior Bowl week and some were penciling him in the top five wide receivers of this class, but that greatly overrates his abilities and overlooks his flaws. Destination is huge for him, as he can’t carry an offense as a #1 receiver, but could flourish as a #2 in a quick-strike spread offense.
NFL Comparison: Eric Decker with more speed but less route-running acumen
21. Donte Moncrief, WR, Mississippi – Like Marqise Lee, Moncrief’s 2012 and 2013 tape tell different stories. Some of that can be chalked up to QB play, but Moncrief’s tendency to body catch and relative lack of sharpness in his game are troubling. On the other hand, he has first-round tools and a ceiling to match. A classic boom/bust prospect.
NFL Comparison: Tyrone Calico without Roy Wiliams lurking to end his career
22. Martavis Bryant, WR, Clemson – Like Moncrief, Bryant has first-round tools, but he didn’t really contribute until his last year at Clemson, and even then he was an underachiever for a player of his caliber. That being said, the arrow is pointing up coming out of that campaign, and it could put him among the best in this class if he gets his head on straight and learns “my ball” mentality.
NFL Comparison: Embryonic Justin Hunter
23. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville – Don’t take this ranking as an endorsement of the nonsense that seems to be pushing Bridgewater down the board. I think he will be an excellent NFL quarterback, and he has latent athleticism to contribute more as a runner. Still, the bar for fantasy relevance at quarterback is extremely high, and without a top 5 fantasy ceiling, it’s hard to endorse Bridgewater in the top 20.
NFL Comparison: Geno Smith with top-end consistency and decision-making
24. Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB, South Carolina – It might be shocking to see Clowney as the #5 IDP on this list, but I am projecting him as an OLB in Houston, which will blunt his fantasy value. As a defensive end, I could see putting him above every other IDP depending on your scoring system. I don’t buy the work ethic concerns, but I do share Jene Bramel’s question about why he hasn’t had bone spurs in his right foot surgically repaired.
NFL Comparison: Mario Williams
25. Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado – Sure, he might need to eat some more pasta, but Richardson is silky smooth with terrific balance and burst to create consistent separation. He has a big play profile, but Richardson can also be overpowered at the catch point if he doesn’t create separation.
NFL Comparison: Faster, skinnier Mario Manningham
To view more great content like this, visit FootballGuys and follow them on Twitter: @Football_Guys
