Is Tom Brady heading in the wrong direction?

Mock drafts are heating up and and you certainly wouldn’t be the only person wondering if some players are being drafted too high. How do you know whether or not you should take one guy over another with the 10th overall pick?
 
Well thanks to our Consensus ADP, you can begin to factor out some of the outliers, but even then there are occasions where it is important to look deeper beyond the numbers. For that reason, we’ve asked a few of our experts who they believe are the most overvalued players according to our early ADP rankings among RB’s, QB’s and WR’s.
 

Q: Based off of our Consensus ADP, which RB, QB and WR is currently the most overvalued in drafts?

Running Backs

Arian Foster, Texans
ADP: #16 Overall | #9 RB
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“I love what Arian Foster brings the the table (three-down back and good pass-catching ability), but the Texans offense is going to struggle this season. Prior to last season, Matt Schaub was a good enough QB to make Foster a top 5 RB — new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is not. The Texans do have a juicy schedule, but the question marks surrounding the offense, as well as Foster’s propensity to get injured, make him a player I’d like to avoid, especially where he’s being drafted as of now, which is the 16th overall pick.”
– Seth Klein (Fake Pigskin)

Frank Gore, 49ers
ADP: #47 Overall | #20 RB
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“Frank Gore is still being drafted as a top-20 fantasy running back, but at 31 — ancient for a running back — and with a ton of mileage on the tires, Gore’s best days are clearly behind him. Although productive last season, Gore put up career lows in several important categories, including yards per carry (4.1) and receptions (16). The lack of receiving production isn’t a mirage — the 49ers offense doesn’t involve a lot of throws to the backs. Also, San Francisco is stocked with talented young runners, including Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore and Carlos Hyde that will eventually have to start getting some touches — likely at Gore’s expense.”
– Jody Smith (Gridiron Experts)

Zac Stacy, Rams
ADP: #22 Overall | #12 RB
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“After a fantastic start he cooled off in a big way, averaging 3.2 yards per carry in the final five games with 34 receiving yards total – a number he had matched in two single games prior. After the season, the Rams proceeded to draft Tre Mason who I am a big fan of. Stacy should still be the #1 RB, but Mason will have enough of an impact to keep Stacy from 25+ carries a game which is where a lot of his value was.”
– Zach Wilkens (RotoBaller)

Andre Ellington, Cardinals
ADP: #37 Overall | #18 RB
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“Andre Ellington at #37 overall will not be able to handle 20-30 touches that are predicted. He does have wonderful PPR upside, but overall he is too overvalued based on his downside potential.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru)

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady, Patriots
ADP: #66 Overall | #10 QB
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“Tom Brady is being overvalued as the 10th QB off the board. After finishing as the 3rd-ranked QB in 2012, Brady plummeted to No. 14 last year. Brady still possesses fantasy appeal, but his weapons are in question and his current ADP is solely on name alone. I’d prefer to wait and take a guy like Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick or even Ben Roethlisberger, who are all coming off the board after him.”
– Seth Klein (Fake Pigskin)

Drew Brees, Saints
ADP: #20 Overall | #3 QB
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“It’s hard to call Drew Brees overvalued, or to justify taking any other quarterback ahead of him, but there are some reasons to be wary of spending an early draft pick on the New Orleans signal-caller. Brees’ yardage, touchdown totals and fantasy points are on a gradual three year decline, and at 35 years old, it’s hard to envision him surpassing 5000 passing yards or improving those numbers again. Secondly, the Saints lost some key, trusted pass catchers this offseason in Lance Moore and Darren Sproles and are at a contract impasse with superstar tight end Jimmy Graham. Finally, Sean Payton has already stated that he intends to implement more of a running game this season and rely on his high octane passing attack a little less frequently.”
– Jody Smith (Gridiron Experts)

Nick Foles, Eagles
ADP: #62 Overall | #7 QB
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“Nick Foles. Don’t get me wrong I think he will be a pretty good QB but I feel the position is very deep and unless Foles is one of the all-time greats, he is going to regress. At least for his rookie year, Jordan Matthews is not going to make up for the production DeSean Jackson brought last year. I’d rather pass on Foles and go for a guy like Kaepernick with a much improved group of receivers.”
– Zach Wilkens (RotoBaller)

Johnny Manziel, Browns
ADP: #146 Overall | #18 QB
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“Johnny Manziel is currently ranked #18 overall among QB’s and he doesn’t have a ton of weapons at WR for 2014. There are a number of QB’s available right around him like Alex Smith and Andy Dalton who I much prefer.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru)

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones, Falcons
ADP: #18 Overall | #6 WR
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“Julio Jones is a WR I think is being overvalued, and thus, is someone I’ll likely avoid in drafts unless I can get him at a discount. Jones has all the talent in the world, but sustaining multiple foot injuries during his short career is a big red flag for me. I prefer to avoid drafting injury-prone players or guys with long injury histories. WR is extremely deep this season, and waiting a few rounds for someone like Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon or Larry Fitzgerald could net you similar value to Jones.”
– Seth Klein (Fake Pigskin)

DeSean Jackson, Redskins
ADP: #44 Overall | #19 WR
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“Don’t overpay for DeSean Jackson’s career-best 2013 season. While D-Jax looked like a great fit with Chip Kelly, now he moves on to an entirely new offense that will likely see him featured as more of a deep threat. While Jackson was Philadelphia’s top option in the passing game, this season, he could be Washington’s third target. 2013 also marked only the second time that the six-year veteran receiver played a full 16 game schedule, after missing nine games from 2009-2012.”
– Jody Smith (Gridiron Experts)

Wes Welker, Broncos
ADP: #36 Overall | #15 WR
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“Two Facts: Peyton Manning is not going to throw for as many touchdowns and Wes Welker is not going to have 10 touchdowns again. Welker had previously derived a lot of value from high yardage totals, but including the playoffs last year, Welker played in 16 games totaling just 938 yards. If Welker matches that total but comes down to 5-7 TD he is not worth his ADP.”
– Zach Wilkens (RotoBaller)

Andre Johnson, Texans
ADP: #40 Overall | #16 WR
 
What’s your take: Is he overvalued?

“At this point Andre Johnson’s attitude is holding me back from a selection at #16 overall. Fitzpatrick is an upgrade at QB for Johnson, but if he doesn’t perform then the rookie Tom Savage will get a shot and that could kill Andre’s upside. Too much risk to be that ranked that high as his name brand it giving him the value.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru)

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Thank you to our experts for contributing their thoughts, you can follow them on Twitter here.