“He’s old with talented backups behind him” – Jonathan Bales

We’re in peak draft season now and one decision we are all faced with is who do we skip when they’re sitting there on the draft board. Over the years, there have been some studs and there have definitely been some duds. When drafting a team, picking a dud too early can really hurt your chances.

Whether it’s a player that is injury prone or someone that is just getting up there in age, there are a few names out there that are makings people’s lists of who to avoid. We decided to ask our experts who makes their list and below are their answers.

Q. What player with a top 50 ADP is least likely to be on any of your fantasy teams?

Marshawn Lynch (RB) Seahawks

ADP: #9

“I won’t own Marshawn Lynch this year. I actually penned an article called ‘Why I Won’t Own Marshawn Lynch in 2013’ last season that still pretty much sums up why I won’t own him in 2014. That clearly backfired on me, but I think the logic was sound and I still believe the odds aren’t in favor of Lynch. For one, he’s old with talented backups behind him. I think that combination already makes his workload a little more fragile than some people expect. He’s also somewhat dependent on the game script for his workload and production. Will Seattle be winning most games this year? Probably. But what if they underachieve? Lynch isn’t a Jamaal Charles type of player who is a viable fantasy option regardless of the game situation. And finally, I think there’s good reason to believe that we’ve seen Lynch’s ceiling, and he’s being drafted near it already, particularly in PPR leagues. If you look at his closest comps, nearly all of them saw a decline in efficiency and production (most in a major way). Lots of risk here, not enough of a discount to take it on.”

– Jonathan Bales (Fantasy Football Drafting)

“Other than the QBs, I don’t see myself owning Marshawn Lynch. He seems to be going between 6 and 9 in most drafts, but I prefer DeMarco Murray, Jimmy Graham and a couple of the wide receivers. Good luck on someone else’s roster, Beastmode.”

– John Halpin (Fox Sports)

Julius Thomas (TE) Broncos

ADP: #29

“I won’t end up with any of the consensus top-3 quarterbacks, but that’s a fairly stock and boring answer. I’m just as likely to miss out on Julius Thomas. Like quarterbacks, tight end is a one-off position where you can find value among the many high-upside plays and trusty veterans available in the mid-to-late rounds — guys like Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz, Heath Miller, Ladarius Green, Dwayne Allen, and Travis Kelce. While I can talk myself into drafting Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski as first-read options for their respective quarterbacks, Thomas is often the second or third option for Peyton Manning and is therefore a notably worse investment in the early rounds.”

– Greg Smith (The Fake Football)

Rob Gronkowski (TE) Patriots

ADP: #31

“Didn’t fall for it last year, and won’t fall for it again this season. Gronkowski is questionable for week 1, and even if he makes that tentative date, he is 50/50 at best to remain healthy for 16 weeks. I’m not willing to assume that sort of risk in the late 2nd/ early 3rd round on draft day, when there are plenty of sleeper picks with upside available in the 7th round or later (Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph)”

– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice)

Peyton Manning (QB) Broncos

ADP: #7

“Peyton Manning, but you can replace him with ‘any quarterback within the Top 50.’ The quarterback position is deeper than ever this year, and when you have options such as Russell Wilson and Jay Cutler at QB13 and QB14, you have proof that you don’t need to take a quarterback inside the Top 50… at all. We had 18 quarterbacks in the top 20 FPPG last year (including Aaron Rodgers and Sam Bradford shortened seasons), and that doesn’t include Cutler and Tom Brady just missing at 19.9. So tell me, why lose out on running back and wide receiver depth/value when there are numerous quarterbacks that can lead your team to a title? There is no good reason.”

– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts)

Montee Ball (RB) Broncos

ADP: #17

“The only league I’ll own Montee Ball in is a keeper league I’m in with some buddies. It’s not that I hate him – it’s just that he’s much too risky to spend a second-round pick on. I thought this well before his emergency appendectomy, which just pushed his ADP down about eight or nine spots. Ball is still relatively unproven. Head coach John Fox has famously rotated running backs in his past, and the Broncos expected him to be the starter last year, too. Give me an established veteran with my second rounder this season.”

– David Gonos (DavidGonos.com)

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Thanks to the experts for stopping by to give us their opinions on players they’re avoiding. You can get more of their advice by visiting their sites and by following them on Twitter: