Jared Smola uncovers several under the radar players that have value in PPR leagues.
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Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Antonio Brown. These guys are reception monsters who get big boosts in PPR leagues. Everyone knows it, though. Guys like Bush, Thomas and Brown routinely go a round or 3 earlier in PPR drafts than they do in standard formats. But we’re on the hunt for some lesser-known guys who get a pop in PPR formats. Players who may not rack up big yardage or TD numbers, but will haul in enough balls to serve as injury replacements, bye-week fill-ins or maybe even starters for your PPR team.
Here are 8 hidden gems to target in the middle or late rounds of your PPR draft.
Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys
Play-calling obviously plays a big role in producing PPR sleepers. And that’s a big part of Dunbar’s appeal. The Cowboys brought in Scott Linehan to call plays this season. He’s best known for 2 things: a heavy lean toward the pass and getting his RBs involved as receivers.
We only need to look back 1 year to see the impact Linehan can have on RB receiving tallies. As Lions OC last season, Linehan provided 54 catches for Reggie Bush and 53 for Joique Bell. They ranked 9th and tied for 10th among NFL RBs in that category.
Across his 9 other seasons calling plays, Linehan produced 11 more seasons of 30+ catches for a RB. More importantly for Dunbar, Linehan’s #2 pass-catching back has reached at least 25 catches in 8 of his 10 years as play-caller.
That’s the role Dunbar will be playing in 2014. And he certainly seems capable of hauling in at least 25 balls.
Dunbar proved plenty adept as a receiver in college, racking up 85 catches over his final 3 seasons at North Texas. He averaged 11.6 yards per catch and scored 7 receiving TDs.
His NFL experience is much more limited, but Dunbar did flash by hauling in all 7 of his targets last year and averaging 8.4 yards per catch.
Indications out of Dallas this offseason are that Dunbar will play an expanded role in 2014. The team reportedly views him as a Darren Sproles-type player, which fits perfectly in Linehan’s offense. RBs coach Gary Brown said in July that Dunbar will line up in the backfield, out wide and in the slot this season.
Dallas’ backfield belongs to DeMarco Murray, but Dunbar could easily rack up 30+ catches as a change-of-pace player.
Dexter McCluster, RB, Titans
We’ve basically stopped mentioning McCluster’s name in any non-premium content because we want to keep his ADP down.
This guy is currently going outside the first 16 rounds of PPR drafts. He could prove to be one of the biggest steals of 2014 at that price.
Miscast as a slot receiver in Kansas City the past 2 years, McCluster totaled 105 catches but just 20 carries.
But flash back to 2011, when Jamaal Charles went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. McCluster took over a significant ball-carrying role, finishing with 516 yards and 1 TD on 114 totes — a strong 4.5 yards per carry. He also hauled in 46 balls for 328 yards and another score.
Even in college, McCluster was an effective RB. Over his final 2 seasons at Ole Miss he carried 290 times for 1,824 yards (6.3 YPC) and 14 TDs.
Look for McCluster to return to a pass-catching RB role in 2014. The Titans went out and got him on the very 1st day of free agency. In Tennessee, McCluster will be playing for a HC who has a history of getting his RBs involved in the passing game.
Most recently, Chargers RB Danny Woodhead racked up 76 grabs in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense. Prior to that, Whiz coaxed 63- and 34-catch seasons out of Tim Hightower and helped J.J. Arrington to a career-high 29 catches in Arizona. With the Steelers, Willie Parker posted a personal-best 31 grabs under Whisenhunt.
We currently have McCluster projected for 36 catches. That’s probably on the low side but still lands him at #41 in our PPR RB Rankings.
Charles Sims, RB, Bucs
Sims enters the league with a sterling receiving resume. He arrived at Houston as a freshman and racked up 70 catches for 759 yards and a score. After redshirting in 2010, he tallied 88 more grabs over the next 2 seasons, producing 948 yards and 7 scores. Then he transferred to West Virginia this past year and posted a 45-401-3 receiving line. Sims was impressive on the ground, too, averaging 5.9 yards per carry across 4 seasons. But it’s the pass-catching ability we’re focusing on here.
Tampa wasn’t the best landing spot for Sims. Besides the presence of potential feature back Doug Martin, OC Jeff Tedford doesn’t have a promising history when it comes to using his RBs in the passing game.
In 11 seasons at Cal, Tedford produced just 2 RBs with more than 27 catches (Joe Igber in 2002 and Marshawn Lynch in 2006). And he had some talented pass-catching backs at his disposal, including Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen.
It’s dangerous to assume Tedford will deploy the same exact system in the pros, though. And the Bucs used a 3rd-round pick on Sims, so they clearly envision him playing a role in the offense.
HC Lovie Smith praised Sims’ hands and quickness after the draft. Tedford said Sims did an “excellent job” in spring practices. And Smith added just this week that he already sees the “it” factor in Sims.
The Bucs are planning to divvy up the RB workload more this season than they did in Martin’s rookie campaign. Sims already appears to be the front-runner for the #2 job. We could see him spelling Martin in passing situations, which would give the rookie the potential to haul in 30+ balls this year.
Theo Riddick, RB, Lions
It’s been tough to go a week this offseason without hearing some Riddick buzz.
Reggie Bush said in June that Riddick will play more this season. In July, Dan Orlovsky predicted 50 catches for Riddick in a Darren Sproles-ian role. The Detroit media has been talking him up throughout spring practices and training camp.
Riddick certainly has the skill set to emerge as a pass-catching specialist. He actually spent 2 of his 4 seasons at Notre Dame as a slot receiver, totaling 78 catches, 850 yards and 6 scores. In his 2 seasons at RB, Riddick compiled 42 catches for 413 yards and 2 TDs.
The big question for Riddick’s 2014 fantasy outlook is where his touches will come from. Detroit has 2 established and versatile RBs in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell who combined for 107 catches last season. Then there are Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and 1st-round rookie Eric Ebron, who will command plenty of targets.
It’s worth noting that new OC Joe Lombardi spent the past 7 seasons in New Orleans, where the Saints often deployed 3 RBs. Most recently, it was Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. Riddick would be the Sproles in that setup in Detroit, although we’re not expecting him to see nearly that much action.
One way the Lions could get Riddick on the field is by using him in the slot, as RBs coach Curtis Modkins recently suggested. That’s the one skill-position spot Detroit is weak at, with Kevin Ogletree currently the favorite for the job.
We’re still in “wait-and-see” mode with Riddick’s role and fantasy value. But with all the buzz around him the past few months, he’s certainly worth considering as a late-round flier in your PPR draft.
Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns
A diminutive stature looks like the biggest barrier between Hawkins and a fantasy-friendly season.
The numbers are undeniable. Over the past 10 years, no WR standing 5’8 or shorter has finished among the top 36 WRs in PPR formats. Hawkins checks in at a pint-sized 5’7, 180 pounds.
We’d be foolish to discount Hawkins’ fantasy prospects on those numbers alone, however. Looking beyond his size, we see the rare case of a severely undersized player who’s positioned for a sizable role. (Pun intended.)
We all know the story of troubled WR Josh Gordon. He’s still a candidate to receive a full-season ban, despite a drawn-out appeals process. Gordon’s absence would leave behind 87 catches and 159 targets, all across 14 games.
The rest of the WR corps looks shaky at best. Miles Austin just turned 30, and he looked to have 1 foot in retirement last season with Dallas. He’s a poor bet to make it through a full season healthy due to chronic hamstring woes.
Nate Burleson is another unthreatening veteran. He suffered a broken leg in October 2012 before breaking his arm in September 2013. He’s over the hill at 32 years old.
Young WR Charles Johnson carries some sleeper appeal, but he, too, is coming off an injury. Johnson sustained a torn ACL in October.
An ankle injury cost Hawkins 8 games last season. That’s no longer a concern, though.
The Browns handed him a 4-year, $13.6 million contract this offseason. He’s not short on playmaking talent, either. He’s torn up offseason practices with ankle-breaking quickness and change-of-direction skills.
Hawkins’ size makes him a poor bet to eclipse 5 TDs. But the reception upside is clear, even if Cleveland’s QB situation lacks clarity. We’re buying Hawkins in PPR leagues with an ADP in the 14th round.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Panthers
Cotchery’s the type of PPR hidden gem that you need to squint to see. But trust us … he’s there.
No, the 32-year-old WR doesn’t “wow” you with his game. He’s not particularly agile, and his straight-line speed isn’t what it was 4-5 years ago. He at least has decent size at 6’1, 200 pounds.
It’s the situation that has Cotchery on the deep PPR league radar.
Carolina lost its top 4 WRs from 2013, locking the former Steeler into a starting role. That alone provides Cotchery with fantasy appeal, especially in an offense run by Cam Newton. The 25-year-old completed passes at a career-high 61.7% clip last season.
Cotchery’s expected to see plenty of time in the slot, a position that allows his best assets — route running and physicality — to shine. Cotchery spent 78.4% of his snaps in the slot with Pittsburgh last season. He recorded 33 of 46 catches, gained 500 of 602 yards and scored 6 of 10 TDs from that area.
Cotchery’s obviously in for some TD regression. His previous career high was 6, and that came in 2006. Still, there’s room for growth in the other categories, making him a worthwhile flier late in drafts. He’s a low-risk option at his current 16th-round ADP.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
We’ve written plenty about Kelce already this year, calling him the top fantasy value on the Chiefs and highlighting him in our TE Draft Strategy feature.
Health is the biggest obstacle between Kelce and a big 2014. He underwent microfracture knee surgery last October, a tough procedure to return from. But Kelce’s recovery has gone well so far, and he was ready for the start of training camp.
It shouldn’t take a healthy Kelce long to emerge as Kansas City’s lead TE. He only needs to beat out the middling Anthony Fasano.
A starting job would present Kelce with tons of fantasy upside. The Chiefs failed to add a difference-making WR this offseason, leaving only Donnie Avery, A.J. Jenkins and Junior Hemingway behind Dwayne Bowe. RB Jamaal Charles will continue to play a big role in the passing game, but Kelce could challenge him for 2nd on the team in targets.
Fasano and fellow TE Sean McGrath combined for 73 targets last year. Kelce should be able to reach or surpass that number by himself in 2014. HC Andy Reid has long made the TE a key part of his attack. His lead TE caught at least 40 balls in 9 of his 14 seasons in Philadelphia. Six of those TEs reached 50 catches.
With his combination of size and athleticism — plus Kansas City’s weak WR corps — Kelce could hit 50 grabs this season.
Garrett Graham, TE, Texans
Graham certainly isn’t an elite talent. But he finds himself in a situation that could make him a high-volume fantasy option in 2014.
Houston has a couple young TEs that could push for playing time later this year in Ryan Griffin and C.J. Fiedorowicz. But Graham will enter the season as the lead TE. He earned that role with an impressive 2013. As the Texans’ top TE over an 8-game stretch, Graham compiled 34 catches, 404 yards and 2 TDs. He was fantasy’s #10 TE over that span.
Now Graham will be playing for HC Bill O’Brien, who arrives in Houston with a favorable TE history. He spent 5 seasons under Bill Belichick in New England. He was there when TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were dominating NFL defenses. More recently, O’Brien was HC at Penn State, where his TEs accounted for at least 25% of the team’s receptions in each of his 2 seasons.
Look for a similar attack in Houston. With nothing behind WRs Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, Graham is a good bet to serve as the 3rd option in the passing game. O’Brien reportedly told Graham that he’ll play a “move, H-Back” role in the offense. That’s a fantasy-friendly spot that could propel Graham past last year’s 49 catches, 545 yards and 5 TDs.
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