Heath Cummings analyzes several of the key performances from last week, and what they mean moving forward.

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If things were supposed to settle down in Week 2 and return to normal…well, they didn’t. The Bills and Texans are 2-0, the Colts and Saints are 0-2. The #1 running back in PPR scoring has 15 carries and last year’s #1 ranks 58th. A new rookie burst onto the scene in Week 2 while a 35 year old receiver continues to post surprisingly good numbers. Tight end was even more surprising in Week 2 with backup tight ends and aging wonders dominating the top five. Of course some of these are just anomalies while others represent trends. Which is which? Let’s find out in this week’s Believe It Or Not.

1. Darren Sproles was the steal of the draft at running back and a solid RB2 (or better) moving forward.

Sproles was dominant on Monday night against the Colts and after two weeks he leads all running backs in PPR scoring. Chip Kelly is using him perfectly and he looks like a lock to far outperform his ADP. His ability in that offense just isn’t fair for opposing defensive coordinators.

Verdict: Believe it. Everything is easy in hindsight but it’s really hard to see how we missed this one. Sproles’ skillset out of the backfield paired with Kelly’s high octane offense is a match made in heaven. He was at least a PPR RB2 every year in New Orleans and in this offense there’s no reason to believe that will change. His low snap count makes him a little bit risky, but he totaled 178 yards on 11 touches in Week 2, so he doesn’t need a ton of chances.

2. Steve Smith is the WR1 in Baltimore and a WR2 in your fantasy league.

Torrey Smith is off to a dreadful start in what many thought would be his breakout year and Steve Smith is a big reason why. The elder Smith has 25 targets in 2 weeks and his two best yardage games since 2012. His production is both a product of Baltimore’s inability to run the ball in Week 1 and his connection with Joe Flacco.

Verdict: Don’t believe it. Defenses were focusing on the other Smith during the first two weeks but that won’t be the case for much longer. Baltimore’s run game looked better in Week 2 and there’s just no way that Smith is going to maintain that 12.5 target/game rate…especially when he’s barely catching half of them. Expect the tide to shift back towards Torrey Smith and for Steve Smith to finish as a borderline WR3/Flex.

3. Niles Paul is the perfect replacement if you lost Jordan Reed as your TE1.

Paul posted 8/99/1 against the Jaguars and now ranks as TE6 through two weeks of the season. With Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson both questionable for this week, Paul looks to be a great bet to be a TE1 again in Week 3 against Philadelphia. Kirk Cousins looked Paul’s way often on Sunday and he’ll be the quarterback for the near future.

Verdict: Believe it. Reed could reportedly return as soon as this week but it’s never a good idea to bet on Reed being healthy. For as long as he’s injured, Paul is a fine play as a low end TE1. We have good reason to believe the Redskins will be chasing the scoreboard, which should lead to an increase in passing, and a solid number of targets for whoever is at tight end.

 
4. Tom Brady‘s 2013 slump is continuing and he’s no longer a QB1.

Brady’s off to a horrendous start to 2014 and finds himself outside of the top 25 quarterbacks through two weeks. He’s averaging a paltry 5.1 yards per attempts and has only completed 56% of his passes. At 37 years old it’s hard to believe this is anything but the end of Brady’s run as a fantasy QB1. If there’s someone in your league that still believes sell now.

Verdict: Believe it. Last year was the first year that it affected his fantasy numbers, but Brady’s slide is nearly three years old now. He’s seen his yards, completion percentage, Y/A and touchdowns drop steadily since 2011 and there just aren’t enough weapons in New England to prop him up right now. Brady will improve on his QB25 ranking, but not near enough to make him startable in a 12 team league on a consistent basis.

5. Larry Donnell is Eli Manning‘s most reliable target and a TE1 moving forward.

Donnell has been a revelation at tight end for the Giants and fantasy owners that need a waiver wire replacement. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards and looks like the only target Eli Manning can consistently trust to be in the right place and catch the ball. With his volume it’s hard to see how he won’t be a TE1.

Verdict: Believe it. Donnell isn’t just a volume play; he’s also an efficiency play. He’s nearly doubling Victor Crus in FP/Target and he’s caught a higher percentage of his targets than any Giants receiver. He’s not a flashy talent, but the Giants need someone consistent in this passing attack because they’re going to be playing from behind a lot. If he’s still on the waiver wire and you’re thin at tight end, grab him now.
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