Heath Cummings analyzes several of the key performances from last week, and what it all means moving forward.

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Basing long term fantasy projections at least somewhat on age has been a longstanding tradition, but week-to-week it can mean almost nothing. This week was a prime example as we saw a pair of aging quarterbacks have monster days while a receiver that was beginning to looked washed up went for 160 yards and a 32 year-old tight end topped 100 yards for the first time in 4 years. Father Time is still undefeated, but there are a few players who are holding him off quite well. Will it continue? Let’s find out in this week’s Believe It Or Not.

1. Tom Brady is experiencing a resurgence and can be counted on as a midlevel QB1 moving forward.
It wasn’t long ago that I was writing Brady off and I wasn’t the only one. Of course, Brady is QB1 over the last 3 weeks, averaging more than 30 fantasy points per game. With Rob Gronkowski at full strength and Brandon LaFell playing the best football of his life, Brady looks like his old self. It turns out all he needed was a little bit of help from his teammates and a healthy Gronkowski.

Verdict: Believe it. Brady hasn’t exactly faced a difficult stretch of pass defense but with match ups against the Broncos, Colts, and Packers in his next four it isn’t getting any harder. He still isn’t as precise as he once was and when Brandon LaFell is your WR1 there’s plenty of reason to expect regression. That being said, Brady has enough good match ups left this year to finish as a solid QB1.

2. Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley are finally on the same page, and the Steelers QB will be a QB1.
Of course you know about Roethlisberger’s monster Week 8 with 522 yards and 6 touchdowns. But did you know how good he’s been since Week 3? In his last 6 games he’s thrown 15 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Steelers pass offense is in quite the rhythm right now and there’s no reason to expect that to slow down.

Verdict: Don’t believe it. Roethlisberger has thrown more than 2 touchdowns only twice this year. He’s topped 280 passing yards just three times. He’s not near consistent enough to rely on as your QB1 and that monster performance is the perfect reason to sell high. Roethlisberger may finish the year in the top 12 quarterbacks, but only because of the monster week he just had. He won’t be a top 12 option in the second half.

3. Heath Miller is a borderline TE1 again after a miserable 2013.
Miller’s career arc has been fascinating to follow. He was a borderline TE1 for the first 5 years of his career, then didn’t crack the top 18 in 2010 or 2011. In 2012 he bounced back with a TE4 season and then slumped to TE24 in 2013. At 32 years old it’s hard to believe he’s got another TE1 season left in him, but that’s exactly what he’s done through the first half of the year.

Verdict: Don’t believe it. Like Roethlisberger, Miller’s numbers are buoyed by a monstrous Week 8. Before that he’d scored 1 touchdown in 7 weeks and topped 50 yards just twice. The Colts have been atrocious against tight ends, so it’s no surprise that Miller’s breakout came when it did. If you start him it should only be because of injuries or byes and even then you’re left hoping for a rare touchdown.

4. Larry Fitzgerald found midseason form and will outperform Michael Floyd for the remainder of the year.
Fitzgerald continued his dominance of the Eagles and turned back the clock with 7 catches for 160 yards and a score in Week 8. Floyd, on the other hand, has lagged behind Fitzgerald, Brown and Ellington in targets since Week 2. Fitzgerald may be nearing the end but he’s a solid WR2 the remainder of the year.

Verdict: Don’t believe it. The Cardinals have made it clear they’re going to take what the defense gives them in any particular week. In 2 weeks that’s been Fitzgerald and he’s taken advantage. Teams will go back to focusing on him and Carson Palmer will go back to throwing the ball to someone else. It’s going to be difficult to trust any of the Arizona wide receivers week-to-week but I’d still put my money on the younger Floyd.

5. Despite the fact that he’s 29 years old, Matt Forte can maintain his pace as an elite RB1.
Forte is on pace for 118 receptions and one of the best PPR seasons of all time by a running back. In Marc Trestman’s system with the weapons Chicago has outside Forte is nearly unstoppable. He’s not showing any signs of his age at this point and the way he’s being used is more conductive to longevity anyway.

Verdict: Believe it. It’s been a while since we had a back Forte’s age lead the way, but it isn’t exactly unprecedented. Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, and Barry Sanders all did it in an era where there was more competition at running back. DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster are the only real challengers to the throne this year and neither is less likely to get injured than Forte.

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