Russell Wilson has not had much success running the ball against the 49ers
Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
Hopefully the tidbits reported here in advance of Week 12 helped you maximize your league or daily fantasy roster output (or enabled you to pick a player or two up in advance of this week’s waiver claim process). Most notably Latavius Murray, Matthew Stafford, Mike Evans, Ryan Tannehill, Alfred Morris, Tim Wright and Jonas Gray all fared well. My mention of the Chiefs D/ST being the top D/ST for Week 12… well, who knew Latavius Murray would be THAT good.
As we head into the last week of the fantasy regular season for most folks, hopefully these tidbits for Week 13, which shed light on historic performance and player trends, will allow you to make up your mind on a start/sit dilemma you may be having; or resolve a waiver claim question you may have.
More Eddie Lacy on tap for Week 13
Before Eddie Lacy’s Week 12 performance against the Vikings in which he carried 25 times, for 125 yards and 1 TD (as well as a receiving TD), his season high for carries had been 17 in Week 4 against the Bears. By comparison, in 2013, Lacy carried at least 17 times in 11 of the 15 full games he played. The drop off in Lacy’s attempts in 2014 may be a result of the fact that the Packers are averaging only 60.3 offensive plays per game this season, good enough for 29th in the NFL. By comparison, the Packers ran almost 67 offensive plays per game last season, 11th in the NFL. In Week 13, the Packers host the Patriots and their tough secondary (Darrell Revis and Brandon Browner). In an attempt keep Tom Brady & Co. off the field, the Packers may slow down the game pace and effectively move the ball away from the New England corners. We should see more offensive snaps and more Eddie Lacy. Lacy, who also averaged 2.8 YPC after contact/run in Week 12, looks to be in store for a huge week.
Dolphins D/ST is looking like a high end option in Week 13
Following the Week 12 obliteration by the Bills, Michael Vick has just 17 completions over his past two starts. Worse yet, only 10 times since 2013 has a NFL QB, who has thrown at least 10 passes in a game, had a QB rating of under 30. Five of those 10 games belong to Geno Smith. As of Wednesday morning, SNY in New York is reporting that Geno Smith will start Week 13 against the Dolphins. Since the Jets are now 2-9, it is no surprise that they want to see if they have any value in Geno Smith in their remaining 5 games. Irrespective of whether Rex Ryan goes with Smith or Vick, the Dolphins should easily outperform their current FantasyPros ranking as the 9th D/ST for Week 13. Despite having yielded 39 points to the Broncos in Week 12, expect a solid bounce back in Week 13 for the Miami D/ST. As such, and despite my blurb last week regarding the Chiefs D/ST, if you own the Miami D/ST it’s an obvious start and if available (owned in only 81.2% of ESPN leagues, and in only 64% of Yahoo leagues), stream and enjoy.
Odell Beckham Jr. continues to separate himself from the outstanding 2014 WR rookie class
With his incredible 10/146/2 performance in Week 12, Odell Beckham Jr. became only the third rookie since 1960 with 10 receptions and 2 receiving TDs in one game. The last rookie to accomplish this feat was Anquan Boldin in 2003 with the Cardinals. Just as impressive, and by way of comparison, after 7 games, Beckham has a 41/631/5 line, and A.J. Green has a 41/631/4 line. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, there is no question OBJ has become a matchup proof WR1 at this point. That said, the worst of the OBJ fantasy matchups are behind him. If you own him, congratulations! He should continue to pay owners huge dividends in Week 13 against Jacksonville, and well into the playoffs where the Giants are @Tennessee, vs. Washington and @St. Louis.
Drew Brees in line for another big game in Week 13
The Steelers defense has allowed 54.8% of passes thrown 15 or more yards down field to be completed. This is third worst in the NFL. Conversely, Drew Brees leads the league in completion percentage of such passes with 55.6%. Brees is already coming off a 420/3 game in Week 12 against the Ravens. With the Saints headed to Pittsburgh in Week 13, Brees and his wide receivers may be in store for another huge day based upon these completion percentages. Look for a very high scoring shootout in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Andrew Hawkins continues to trend upward, even with Josh Gordon back in action
In Week 12, despite Josh Gordon’s return, Andrew Hawkins still managed to bring in 93 receiving yards on 5 receptions against the Falcons. Hawkins now has 87+ receiving yards in 6 games this season, including 4 of his past 5 games. Only 6 other wide receivers in the entire league have 6 or more such games in 2014. Although Hawkins has a tough task in Week 13 when the Browns travel to Buffalo, he is trending upward and could outperform his current weekly rank as a WR3 play (especially in PPR leagues). Hawkins may not have “homerun” capabilities, but, beyond Week 13, he will certainly be a very solid and consistent play during the fantasy playoffs. The Browns face a great WR schedule in Weeks 14-16 — the Colts, Bengals and Panthers.
Joseph Morgan may potentially benefit from Brandin Cooks’ absence going forward
In Week 12, Saints WR Joseph Morgan became the first NFL player to earn a 60 yard run and a 60 yard catch in the same game since Chris Johnson did it in September of 2009 for Tennessee. Against the Ravens, Morgan only had one rushing attempt for 67 yards and one reception for 62 yards, totaling 129 total yards. Marques Colston and Kenny Stills were the clear beneficiaries of Brandin Cooks’ season ending injury in Week 12, and should be considered the primary beneficiaries of Cooks’ absence going forward. That said, in deeper leagues, Morgan may be worth scouting particularly since the Saints face the Steelers in Week 13, and have a very favorable playoff schedule for WRs (Carolina, @Chicago and Atlanta). If Drew Brees continues to spread the ball around, Morgan may become something more than just a situational deep threat in New Orleans given his big play capability.
Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews will continue to trend upward if the San Diego OL remains consistent & intact
Week 12 was the first time since Week 3 that the Chargers used only 5 offensive lineman in a game. As a result, it is no surprise that Philip Rivers connected on 82.9% of his passes, the second highest percentage of his career (minimum 25 pass attempts). This included Rivers connecting on 14 of 15 pass attempts in the second half of the Week 12 game against the Rams. Additionally, Ryan Mathews put up an impressive 105 yards and 1 TD on only 12 rushing attempts – the first time he had ever averaged 8.8 YPC. In Week 13, the Chargers face a tough task against the Ravens defense. Obviously, due to the matchup, expectations regarding Rivers’ Week 13 performance should be limited. That said, should the Chargers OL remain intact/injury free, Rivers may very well outperform his current FantasyPros weekly ranking of 14. The same holds true for Ryan Mathews who is presently ranked 22nd and 25th for Week 13 (standard and PPR leagues, respectively). Mathews, in particular, may be a sneaky daily fantasy play for Week 13 against Baltimore.
Blake Bortles and Denard Robinson could potentially exploit the Giants D/ST with “unintended” short game
In Week 12, only 7 of Bortles’ 27 passes against the Colts traveled more than 6 yards downfield, and 11 of those 20 passes didn’t even cross the line of scrimmage. The short passing game and bottle-up of Bortles was the result of constant blitz packages brought by the Colts in Week 12. Bortles was blitzed by the Colts on 17 of 31 drop-backs (59%) which represents the highest percentage by a Jaguars opponent in 2014. Many experts consider the Giants D/ST to be an excellent streaming option in Week 13 because of the Colts’ dominance last week and because the Jaguars have given up the most fantasy points to D/STs this season. Expectations regarding the Giants D/ST, however, should be tempered. If the Giants intend to game plan in a similar fashion as the Colts, the Giants D/ST, currently 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed, may be in for a long day. If Bortles can successfully check down and screen in the face of over-committed pressure/blitz packages, Denard Robinson and Marcedes Lewis could end up with huge fantasy games against a Giants D/ST that has struggled to contain over the past 2 months. Bottom line, what worked for Indianapolis will not likely work for the Giants. As a result, the Giants D/ST may not be a top stream option in Week 13 despite facing an awful Jacksonville offense.
The Eagles D/ST is having a historic season
Josh Huff’s opening kickoff TD return in Week 12 against the Titans gave the Eagles D/ST their 10th touchdown of 2014. The Eagles are now within three TDs of tying the single-season mark (13) by any D/ST since 1960 (the 1998 Seahawks had 13 TDs). The Eagles 10 TDs are also 5 more than any other D/ST has scored this season. The Eagles D/ST is owned in 75.5% of ESPN leagues and 88% of Yahoo leagues. If somehow available in your league, the Eagles D/ST should be grabbed without hesitation and started, irrespective of matchup, given their performance through the first 11 games of the season. The Eagles face Dallas in Week 13 and, during the fantasy playoffs, Seattle, Dallas (again) and Washington.
Russell Wilson may be throwing more and running less against San Francisco
In his NFL career, Russell Wilson has rushed for less than 10 yards per game just six times. Three of those six games were against the 49ers. There is no question that Wilson owners have gotten accustomed to racking up points resulting from rushing yardage he has provided, particularly over the past 3 weeks (107, 71 and 73 yards, respectively). In Week 13 (and in Week 15), however, it may be a much different story when Wilson faces San Francisco. Based on history, Wilson will primarily be moving the ball through the air, to the benefit of Seattle WR owners, and leaving running duties to Marshawn Lynch. Wilson will be a lower end QB1 in Week 13 without his rushing yardage to inflate his fantasy numbers.
