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10 Things We Learned in Week 16

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR) New York Giants

Odell Beckham has proven he’s no fluke and is running away with Rookie of the Year honors

Scott Ellinwood and Matthew Terrelle are correspondents at FantasyPros. To read more from Scott and Matthew, you can follow them on Twitter @ScottEllinwood and @supermt.

Championship Sunday arrived in Week 16 for most leagues. Some of the best performances were turned in by fresh faces and old veterans, while a young star cost many fantasy teams their chance at glory. Some owners are in need of a Monday Night miracle after Sunday’s performances. Which are aberrations and which are trends? FantasyPros has it covered with the top 10 things we learned in Week 16.

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1. Odell Beckham Jr. raised the bar again
Beckham is part of a historically good class of rookie wide receivers and is separating himself from a fantasy perspective because of his spectacular catches and huge statistical output. His output has been remarkably consistent for a rookie and he seems to be getting stronger late in the season – another thing that rookies aren’t supposed to do. Not since Randy Moss in 1998 have we seen a rookie WR dominate to this extent. Consider Beckham’s stat lines over the last five weeks: 10-146-2, 7-90-0, 11-130-1, 12-143-3 and 8-148-2. Rookies only do that in Madden. Beckham is elite, and will remain elite even after Victor Cruz returns in 2015.
Scott Ellinwood

2. Ryan Tannehill is emerging as a quality QB1
While Luck struggled in Dallas, another 2012 first round pick was lighting it up in Miami. Ryan Tannehill has had more than his share of criticism over his first two seasons, but he is finally putting it all together and emerging as an upper echelon option at quarterback. Last week, Tannehill threw for 346 yards and a touchdown against a New England team that boasts arguably the top pass defense in the league. In Week 16, Tannehill threw for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Owners who bet on Tannehill on this Championship Sunday were rewarded in a big way. He will face the Jets at home in Week 17.
Scott Ellinwood

3. The Kansas City Chiefs hate your fantasy football team
The Chiefs have played a very conservative brand of football all year. Unfortunately for Travis Kelce fans, a year long refusal to unleash the talented tight end was frustrating, but at least no one went into the season counting on his production. Fortunately for Jamaal Charles owners the conservative game plan usually called for a lot of rushes. On Sunday against the Steelers, the team flipped the script, abandoned the run against a soft Pittsburgh run defense, and threw the ball 45 times. This came at the worst time possible for Jamaal Charles fantasy owners in the championship game. Charles saw nine carries for 29 yards and caught five passes for 45 yards. The play calling was baffling as the Chiefs were within one touchdown of the Steelers until there were 34 seconds left in the third quarter. Abandoning the run would have been more understandable had the Chiefs been behind by several scores the whole game and had to throw to catch up. Hopefully Charles owners were able to weather the storm, and get production from other spots in their starting lineup. Charles is still a clear cut first round pick next year, and Kelce will probably intrigue owners more than he actually produces again, so expect more of the same from Kansas City next season as long as Alex Smith and Andy Reid are running the show.
Matthew Terrelle

4. Philip Rivers is simply clutch
Rivers has always been polarizing, both in the NFL and in fantasy.  He fights to his last breath no matter the situation. Sure, he has an unorthodox throwing motion. Yes, he has engaged in ridiculous and unnecessary verbal exchanges with other players over the years. But you can’t say that he is anything less than a gutsy, clutch competitor. Rivers led the Chargers back from a 28-7 halftime deficit on Saturday night and almost singlehandedly willed San Diego to the win. If your fantasy team was counting on Rivers, he delivered in a big way, completing 33 of 54 passes for 356 yards and four touchdowns. It wasn’t always pretty and he looks stiff and awkward in the pocket, but if you started Rivers this week, you likely just won yourself a championship. Even at age 33 with creaking legs, you simply can’t write him off; either in Week 17 at Kansas City or in 2015.
Scott Ellinwood

5. There’s value in Carolina for 2015 drafts
Both Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton are going to be great values in your fantasy draft next season. Stewart, finally healthy after being derailed by injuries the past few seasons, has been given a chance to shine with DeAngelo Williams injured. Displaying his patented blend of speed and power, Stewart has been filling up the box score the past few weeks. Stewart has had the Carolina backfield to himself from Weeks 14 through 16 and has produced RB2 numbers. During this time, Stewart has handled 66 carries and rushed for 352 yards and two touchdowns (one receiving). That’s good for 5.33 yards per carry. It’s hard to say what Carolina will do with their always crowded backfield in the offseason, but he should be available in the middle to late rounds. Even if Williams is still around, Stewart could offer some value at some point in the year if DeAngelo gets banged up again. It seems like every fantasy owner has been burned by Stewart at some point which will also bring his draft stock down. Don’t let past indiscretions cloud your decision making. Getting Stewart on your team next year is a calculated risk worth taking as he could pan out as an RB2 who was drafted in the late rounds.

Cam Newton, has been a fantasy disappointment this season. He came into the year with broken ribs and a surgically repaired ankle. Shockingly, Newton wasn’t running earlier in the season the way fantasy owners had come to expect. There were some games where he looked like he was really laboring and could barely run to put it nicely. Newton has gotten healthier as the year has gone on and yesterday against the Browns, he looked like vintage Cam. Running with speed and power, Newton rolled up 63 yards and a touchdown on the ground and he appears to be the dual threat quarterback that fantasy owners have loved over the years. With Kelvin Benjamin adding a year under his belt and weak pass defenses abound in the NFC South, consider Newton a top six quarterback for next season who should be available in the middle rounds.
Matthew Terrelle

6. Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham may not meet expectations again
It is hard to say what exactly went wrong in New Orleans this season. Maybe father time caught up to Drew Brees, maybe the league finally figured out how to stop the New Orleans offensive attack. Possibly the offseason loss of Darren Sproles or the in-season loss of Brandin Cooks were too much to overcome. Maybe Jimmy Graham’s shoulder injury is worse than the team let on. Regardless of what went on this year, there are enough warning signs present to downgrade all New Orleans players in fantasy for the upcoming season. Brees and Graham both combined yesterday to crush the playoff hopes for the Saints. Drew Brees has always been up and down as a fantasy quarterback, usually playing much better at home than on the road, but in the past, the ups were consistent enough to make him a worthy every week start. This year, Brees had several starts that just downright crushed a fantasy team’s chances in a given week. Jimmy Graham will still probably be taken in the end of the first round next year. His productivity dropped off after a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, but even before his injury his usage was a little concerning. Graham simply did not make as many catches downfield this season. This is evidenced by his yards per catch dropping from 14.1 in 2013 to 10.57 in 2014. In 2013 Graham had 18 receptions of over 20 yards, five receptions of over 40 yards and six 100-yard games. In 2014, his numbers dipped to eight catches of over 20 yards, none over forty yards, and only one 100-yard game. All of this is a concerning usage pattern and makes a first round draft pick a poor choice.
Matthew Terrelle

7. Colin Kaepernick may be miscast
We’ve all seen some regression from Kaepernick in 2014. At times, he’s looked lost. He hasn’t always found his receivers and his stat lines have been very disappointing when compared to his early performances in 2012. Clearly, defenses have adapted to his strengths and Kaepernick and the 49ers have seemed to have no counterpoint, leaving his owners frustrated. In Week 16, Kaepernick was the third leading fantasy QB, behind only Tannehill and Eli Manning. He had a terrible night passing the ball against San Diego, completing 15 of 24 passes for only 114 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick did his damage on the ground however, rushing seven times for 151 yards and another score. On his 90 yard TD run, his juke was so good he nearly faked Eric Weddle out of his beard. It sure makes you wonder: Is Kaepernick’s best long term potential as a quarterback? I don’t think the Niners are ready to give up on him as a passer – and neither should his fantasy owners – but you have to see shades of Robert Griffin III in his game and that’s concerning.
Scott Ellinwood

8. The Dallas Cowboys will provide fantasy value no matter what the offense looks like
The Cowboys shocked the football world this season as they abandoned their pass-heavy approach for a more sensible run-first mentality. This has turned out to be a stroke of coaching genius as the team has claimed their first division title since 2009. Leaning heavily on DeMarco Murray for most of the year, the Cowboys showed on Sunday that they can still pass the ball when needed. Murray was limited yesterday with a surgically repaired hand, so Dallas turned to Tony Romo to lead them over the Colts. He passed for four touchdowns and was extremely efficient as he completed 18 of 20 passes. The Cowboys should be an interesting team for fantasy owners to consider going into the offseason. DeMarco Murray has been magnificent this year, but he has seen a heavy workload this season (373 carries) and history tells us that running backs who see carries in that neighborhood usually fall off the next season. Murray will go in the first round next year, but it may be wise to let someone else select him.

This season has proven that Tony Romo doesn’t need volume to be a productive fantasy quarterback. Romo has thrived under the new run-first offense as he has shown more efficiencty and limited his turnovers this season. With just 401 pass attempts, he is on pace for his fewest pass attempts since 2006, his first season as the full-time starting quarterback. Even with fewer pass attempts than in prior seasons, he still has 32 touchdown passes which is the second highest total for his career. Romo should be a high-floor, safe, lower-end QB1 for the 2015 NFL season. Chances are he will be overlooked by fantasy owners like usual, making him a supreme middle round value.
Matthew Terrelle

9. Josh Gordon may not be a fantasy WR1 anymore
First things first, Josh Gordon is a phenomenal talent. Anyone who watched him in 2013 knows this to be true as Gordon torched the league for 1,646 receiving yards in only 14 games. Unfortunately, too much of Gordon’s situation has changed since then and thus he is no longer a WR1 for fantasy purposes. The 2013 season was a perfect storm for Gordon. Gordon was suspended, but for only two games. This allowed him to stay in reasonable game shape for his return. Then the team traded Trent Richardson early in the season, leaving no viable running back on the roster. Then offensive coordinator Norv Turner realized this and decided simply to not run the ball. Turner is well-known as a premium offensive coordinator who likes to stretch the field with a vertical passing attack. This left quarterbacks Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, and Jason Campbell no choice but to throw, and throw deep, to Gordon and Jordan Cameron.

This season Gordon missed 10 games. It was evident he had trouble meshing with the team upon his return and wasn’t in game shape from a conditioning standpoint. This coupled with the fact that the offensive system run by new coordinator Kyle Shanahan was completely different. Shanahan brought a run-heavy approach which severely limits the opportunities for pass catchers to have big games. When the team did throw, it was mostly short to intermediate routes, not the deep downfield shots that Norv Turner was dialing up last season. Red zone opportunities have not been there for Gordon either as he only had three red zone targets and hasn’t caught a pass inside the opponent’s 20-yard line in his five games this year. Note that Jordan Cameron also had a big dip in production this season which further proves this point. It is within the realm of possibility that Gordon returns to WR1 status, but the odds are not in his favor.
Matthew Terrelle

10. Andrew Luck was horrific when it mattered most
Colts QB Andrew Luck has had an incredible season, notching career highs in both passing yards and touchdowns. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, Luck served up his worst performance of the year in what was a championship game in most leagues. Not only was his 109 yard performance his lowest output of the season; it was the lowest of his career. Week 16 was also the first time that Luck has failed to throw a TD pass this year. Some of that can be attributed to T.Y. Hilton missing the game, and the Cowboys defense certainly deserves some credit. However, as an elite fantasy QB, Luck simply didn’t get it done in Week 16, and his owners won’t soon forget. Some fantasy owners will have a game in Week 17 and Luck and the Colts have an attractive matchup against Tennessee. However, the Colts may have little to play for and may give Luck the week off. Sorry owners, you’re out of Luck.
Scott Ellinwood

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