Josh Gordon is just one of many players that makes for a tough decision in Week 16 lineups
It’s championship week for most and it doesn’t get more exciting or confusing as there are certainly question marks heading into the weekend. Do you play a Josh Gordon knowing Johnny Football is throwing it to him? Or how confident should you be in running Charles Johnson in your lineup? These questions are certainly legitimate ones and thanks to the experts, they have provided their thoughts on why you should or shouldn’t play any one of the guys listed below.
That’s right, we’ve got your Like/Dislike Championship Edition and the experts are coming from both ends of the spectrum. There are certainly some Dissenting Opinions which is exactly why we want to give you reasoning from both ends. If you were having trouble before, perhaps these opinions will help on your decision-making this weekend.
Running Back
JEREMY HILL (CIN VS. DEN)
Concensus ECR: RB #13
Likes Him More: Jeff Brubach #8
Likes Him Less: Dawgmatica #24
LIKE: “Prior to Week 15, Cincinnati OC Hue Jackson declared that he would prefer to lean on just one running back and he kept his word, as Jeremy Hill received 25 carries to just 15 for Giovani Bernard while the Bengals crushed the Cleveland Browns. Hill was extremely productive with his touches, piling up 148 rushing yards on those 25 carries. With Bernard now officially taking a backseat to Hill, I like the rookie to continue to receive a healthy workload with the Bengals who are currently averaging 30.4 rushing attempts per game (5th in the NFL). The matchup against Denver isn’t great by any means, but I will take my chances with a running back this good who is a near lock for 20+ carries.”
– Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)
DISLIKE: “The Bengals monstrous rookie running back out of LSU has a real nice future ahead of him, but despite his dominant showing against the Browns last weekend, I simply can’t see him putting together a repeat performance against the Broncos here in Week 16. First off, the Donkeys have allowed just four running backs to rush for more than 50 yards against them all season, with only one of them putting up over 90 (Tre Mason had 113 yards on 29 carries in Week 11). That said, the way for running backs to score fantasy points against this Denver defense is not to pound the ball (like Hill does), but to use them out of the backfield as a receiver (Denver is tied for the most receptions allowed to RBs this season), which means Giovani Bernard is bound to see some extra playing time in this game. Cincinnati should come to understand this real quick on Monday night and when they do, Hill’s fantasy-scoring potential will be capped as a result.”
– Dawgmatica (Pyromaniac)
TRE MASON (STL vs. NYG)
Consensus ECR: RB #12
Likes Him More: Maurile Tremblay #5
Likes Him Less: Zach Wilkens #17
LIKE: “The Rams are favored by 5.5 points over the Giants, who are giving up a tied-for-league-worst 4.9 yards per carry this season. The game script favors a lot of running by the Rams, and since he took over as the starter in Week 7, Tre Mason is averaging 70% of the team’s RB touches. Over the last four weeks, make that 74%. You don’t have to love Tre Mason’s talent in order to love his fantasy prospects in Week 16.”
– Maurile Tremblay (FootballGuys)
DISLIKE: “The Giants look like a nice matchup on paper, but their points allowed to opposing running backs is inflated by Marshawn Lynch and his four touchdowns. In fact, those are the only rushing touchdowns given up by the Giants in their last seven games. Tre Mason has only exceeded 4.0 yards per carry once over his last seven games, and in that game, it was solely thanks to an 89 yard touchdown run. If he doesn’t break free for a big run like that (which isn’t very likely) he simply isn’t anything more than an alright RB2.”
– Zach Wilkens (RotoBaller)
ISAIAH CROWELL (CLE at CAR)
Consensus ECR: RB #22
Likes Him More: Scott Spratt #16
Likes Him Less: Rich Hribar #36
LIKE : “Crowell has been disappointing of late with just 100 yards and one touchdown over his last three starts. However, his 34.6 percent breakaway percentage (percentage of yards accumulated on 15+ yard runs) is seventh-highest among 45 qualified backs–about the same as DeMarco Murray. When Crowell is at his best, he scores in big chunks, and the Carolina Panthers defense provides a nice opportunity having allowed the 12th-most yards and 6th-most touchdowns on the ground this season.”
– Scott Spratt (Pro Football Focus)
DISLIKE: “I’m not trusting Isaiah Crowell this week for reasons that go beyond the ineptitude that one Mr. Football displayed last week, although he is also a concern. Since Alex Mack was lost for the season, Cleveland has the worst yards per carry in the entire NFL at 3.06 yards and although Crowell has been better than the ghost of Ben Tate and Terrance West, he’s still only at 3.7 YPC in those games as the lead back. He’s also the most touchdown dependent back in the league. In PPR formats, 42.2% of his production stems from scores, so if he doesn’t hit paydirt, you’re looking a low floor. After allowing 5.2 yards per carry through eight weeks (highest in the league), Carolina has allowed just 3.7 YPC in their five games since (12th best), so they aren’t the pushover most see them as. With chips on the line, there are better options than Crowell in your RB2 spot this week.”
– Rich Hribar (XN Sports)
DANIEL HERRON (IND at DAL)
Consensus ECR: RB #20
Likes Him More: Bill Enright #12
Likes Him Less: Mike Tagliere #26
LIKE: “All season long we’ve seen running backs get injured, nicked up, banged down, and tossed around. It’s been a long 15 weeks for most of the backs heading into Week 16. But not for Boom Herron. He’s played about half the games this year compared to all other RBs who were in action since Week 1. So while other RB2 type players like Frank Gore, Isaiah Crowell, Ryan Mathews, and Lamar Miller are Questionable due to injury, Herron is still relatively fresh. He’s facing a Cowboys Defense that has allowed at least one rushing TD to RBs in every game since Week 7. While teammate, Trent Richardson, is averaging a measly 3.08 yards per carry the last three games, Herron is far more productive averaging 6.2 ypc during that same span. Expect Herron to do damage in the passing attack, in between the 20s and get goal-line looks and take advantage of a soft Cowboys run defense.”
– Bill Enright (FFChamps)
DISLIKE: “Since Ahmad Bradshaw went down, the Colts have shown a little trust in Dan “Boom” Herron, but there’s been little boom in the stat sheet. All I can tell you is that he has been held to fewer than 8 fantasy points in 3 of the 4 games since Bradshaw’s departure. It ultimately isn’t his fault considering he’s had just 10,12 and 13 touches in the last three games. The Colts still feel obligated to play Trent half the time, so in championship week, I am likely looking for somebody else to put into my RB2 slot. I do like him as a low end RB2 in PPR however.”
– Mike Tagliere (Tags Fantasy Football)
Wide Receiver
JOSH GORDON (CLE at CAR)
Consensus ECR: WR #19
Likes Him More: Raju Byfield #9
Likes Him Less: Sablich Brothers #29
LIKE: “There is plenty of reason to be low on Josh Gordon this week after watching Johnny Manziel flat-out struggle in his first start as a Cleveland Brown; but there is also some reason for optimism. First, Manziel can’t get much worse and as we saw in college he has proven to be able to coax big numbers from his top receiver. Add to that the fact that everyone in the fantasy community considered Josh Gordon QB proof prior to last week. We believe Gordon will have a bounce back week with Manziel humbled and ready to prove his doubters wrong. We have Gordon ranked as a WR1 and project a 6-110-1 line for Gordon this week as the Browns square off against a Panthers secondary who have struggled to keep big time receivers in check.”
– Raju Byfield (Win My Fantasy League)
DISLIKE: “Josh Gordon is talented enough to make something out of nothing, but it’s not a chance worth taking in such a crucial week. After seeing Johnny Manziel perform last week, he’s obviously a ways away from being decent, if he ever gets there. Unless Gordon is allowed to throw the ball to himself, we’re not expecting much from him for as good as he is.”
– Sablich Brothers (The New York Times)
CHARLES JOHNSON (MIN at MIA)
Consensus ECR: WR #31
Likes Him More: Scott Engel #18
Likes Him Less: scoutPRO #54
LIKE: “The Vikings passing game has been improving, and a banged up Miami defense could be in for a real challenge this week. Teddy Bridgewater threw for over 300 yards against a tougher Lions defense, and Johnson has emerged as his best playmaker. Some close to the Vikings situation have commented that Johnson is comparable to Julio Jones in terms of build and physique. Sure, Brent Grimes is a fine CB, but Minnesota will still work to get the ball to Johnson and he should be good for a TD this week. The Vikes may perform better than some believe on offense, and Johnson is coming on as a true force.”
– Scott Engel (RotoExperts)
DISLIKE: “Johnson will play in his 6th game with increased playing time this week. Over this stretch, he has 20 catches for 355 yards and 2 TDs on 37 targets. This works out to about 4/71 with 0.40 TDs and 7.4 targets per game (13.5 FPPG). Miami is15th in the league in WR defense with 5 teams scoring more than 40 fantasy points. CB Cortland Finnegan has allowed 39/60 for 429 yards with 1 TD. Johnson has big play ability with a short resume. Finnegan isn’t an elite corner anymore, but the Dolphins have a strong enough pass rush to limit Bridgewater’s window to make deep throws. Low volume WR who needs to score to have winning value in the daily space.”
– Shawn Childs (scoutPRO)
JORDAN MATTHEWS (PHI at WAS)
Consensus ECR: WR #26
Likes Him More: Zach Wilkens #16
Likes Him Less: Bloomberg Sports #42
LIKE: “Jordan Matthews was on a roll with Mark Sanchez until the last two weeks. I’m not holding it against him for a poor showing against Seattle. Last week’s performance however, was bad and that’s partially on Matthews (dropping his lone target) and partially on the poor play from Sanchez. Inconsistency happens with rookies. We’ve seen it from all of them except perhaps Odell Beckham. The fact remains that Matthews is a very talented receiver and has a very good matchup. I’m very confident he and Sanchez will both bounce back against the Redskins.”
– Zach Wilkens (RotoBaller)
DISLIKE: “I’m aware Matthews’ 0 point game last week was largely due to him getting banged up on the very first series. However, I look for his downward trend to continue this week not because I think he’s a bad receiver – he is definitely one of the better up and coming talents at the position. With the easy matchup against the Redskins this week in a must-win game, I feel the Eagles are going to game plan as much as possible to keep Sanchez from throwing too much. Look for them to run early and often as they won’t likely be trailing at any point in the game. This makes Matthews a very risky option in championship week and there are better options this week at the WR3 slot.”
– Sean Koerner (Bloomberg Sports)
Tight End
JORDAN REED (WAS vs. PHI)
Consensus ECR: TE #12
Likes Him More: Jeff Paur #8
Likes Him Less: Adrian Pereira #24
LIKE: “Reed hasn’t been consistent throughout the season, but is always capable of the big game. He had a 100-yard showing just a few weeks back and has been targeted 22 times the past three games, showing he is getting plenty of looks. If he gets that many looks against the Eagles this week, he can do some damage. Philadelphia is just 28th against the pass, allowing nearly 260-passing yards per game. I consider Reed a low-end No. 1 fantasy tight end for Week 16 because of his big-game potential in this matchup.”
– Jeff Paur (RTSports)
DISLIKE: “It’s tough to trust Jordan Reed heading into Week 16. According to our metrics, Reed ranks 24th as far as consistency goes amongst tight ends. This week Reed faces Philly, a team that has given up just 1 TD all season long against tight ends. In addition, Reed is losing snaps to fellow tight ends Niles Paul and Logan Paulsen. I trust RG3 more than Jordan Reed… that must be saying something!”
– Adrian Pereira (eDraft)
LARRY DONNELL (NYG at STL)
Consensus ECR: TE #13
Likes Him More: Scott Whitfield #7
Likes Him Less: Brett Talley #21
LIKE: “While I certainly don’t LOVE Larry Donnell as my 7th TE overall for Week 16, I do like him more than most of the other TEs between 8 and his ECR of 13. I think he is a little more than a back-end TE1 or high-end TE2 this week because the numbers lately on the Rams Defense do not tell the whole story. The Rams Defense has been clicking since the return of DE Chris Long three games ago, but in that span they faced Derek Carr, Colt McCoy and a combination of Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley. Additionally, they have faced only a handful of prototypical pocket passers all season. Rashad Jennings is likely out this week and the Giants are not expected to have much success running the ball with Andre Williams against the Rams’ top-12 rush defense. Eli Manning has been force feeding Odell Beckham Jr. to the tune of 38 targets the last 3 weeks, but Eli didn’t face two elite edge rushers like the Rams’ Robert Quinn and Chris Long during that span. While Donnell has proven to be touchdown dependent this year, I think this game shapes up nice for him as a 6’6″ chip blocking outlet with red zone targets against a secondary with only 1 starter over 5′ 11″ according to ourlads.com. Larry Donnell is the 9th most targeted TE after 15 weeks.”
– Scott Whitfield (Roto Rankings)
DISLIKE: “After allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2013 (5.0), the Rams are allowing the second fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends this year (4.1). We’re definitely at the point where we should be looking for any other option at the position unless you own one of the elite guys at the position, which might just be Gronk at this point. The Rams have allowed tight ends of only two teams to score more than five fantasy points, and just one of those teams cracked double digits. Over their last eight games they’re allowing an average of 2.9 fantasy points per game to tight ends, and they’ve faced Antonio Gates, Travis Kelce, Julius Thomas and Jordan Reed in that stretch. This is no fluke, and Donnell just can’t be trusted in a brutal macthup.”
– Brett Talley (The Fantasy Fix)
Other Likes/Dislikes
MARK SANCHEZ (PHI at WAS)
Consensus ECR: QB #10
Likes Him More: Dalton del Don #7
LIKE: “Sanchez has struggled with turnovers since taking over the role as Philadelphia’s starting quarterback, but he’s also thrown eight touchdowns while running for another and has passed for 258.3 yards over six games, which is a season’s pace of 25 scores and 4,132 yards. Those numbers aren’t off the charts or anything, but he got a bit unlucky with all three of Philly’s scores last week coming on the ground. Moreover, he faces a Washington defense this week that’s allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing passers this season, including a 31:5 TD:INT ratio and a whopping 8.2 YPA. The over/under in this game is 50+ points, so Sanchez should also benefit from playing in a possible shootout. He’s a QB1 in the crucial Week 16.”
– Dalton del Don (Yahoo)
ROBERT GRIFFIN (WAS vs. PHI)
Consensus ECR: QB #13
Likes Him More: Kevin Hanson #8
LIKE: “If you somehow made it to Championship Week with Jay Cutler as your quarterback, as an example, RG3 is a good replacement option (available in 63 percent of Yahoo! leagues as of Thursday morning). In 14 games, the Eagles have allowed 11 quarterbacks to finish in the top 12 for the week and Kirk Cousins, starting for an injured Griffin, threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns in this matchup back in Week 3. Some of the other top-12 finishes against Philly this season include performances from Chad Henne, Austin Davis, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Zach Mettenberger — far from a who’s who list of quarterbacks. Coming off his best performance (QB8 in Week 15), there is no reason that he can’t deliver another top-eight performance (or better) for fantasy owners in the most important week of the year.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
ALSHON JEFFERY (CHI vs. DET)
Consensus ECR: WR #12
Likes Him Less: Sigmund Bloom #34
DISLIKE: “Alshon Jeffery is going to be saddled with Jimmy Clausen. While Clausen could pull a Josh McCown and be better than we expect, he’s still facing a Lions defense that is among the best in the league. Jeffery has put up some garbage time points against weaker defenses like Dallas and New Orleans, but Detroit is a merciless group, and that has been with Jay Cutler, who can still complete some downfield passes against a slack defense. Clausen is an unknown, but Detroit’s defense is a known, and Jeffery is a known as the only player who can really hurt defenses downfield in the Bears offense. I wouldn’t bet too heavily on Clausen propelling Jeffery to value this week.”
– Sigmund Bloom (FootballGuys)
SAMMY WATKINS (BUF at OAK)
Consensus ECR: WR #23
Likes Him Less: Sigmund Bloom #33
DISLIKE: “Why do I not like Sammy Watkins this week? Why should I like a guy who has been a Fantasy dud in five of his last six games? I get that it’s Sammy Watkins, and we’re all supposed to love him, but five of his last six games he has less than 35 yards receiving in each. He has not scored a TD in six-straight weeks—why should we confidently love him? The name value is outweighing the results of late. I don’t care if it is Oakland this week, he had poor results against the Jets a few weeks ago. It’s a bad trend across the board the past six games.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metric)
