Jamaal Charles’ running efficiency is familiar territory for the back
Brian Hoffman is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @hoffmaba1.
1.93: Fantasy points per-touch for Jamaal Charles in Week 14.
While Le’Veon Bell will steal the headlines this week, Jamaal Charles continues to define efficiency by scoring 23.1 fpts on only 12 touches. His 1.93 fpts per-touch in Week 14 is three times the cumulative season average for running backs of .63 (min. 100 rushes). This is no anomaly for Charles. He leads all running backs with .89 fpts-per-touch this season (min. 100 rushes). Unlike most running backs in the league, Charles’ value is independent from volume and can be counted on to produce regardless of game-flow.
5: Number of times a running back has totaled 100+ yards against Kansas City since Week 9.
In the six games between Weeks 9 and 14, five running backs have totaled 100 or more yards against the Kansas City defense. The most recent running back to do so was Arizona’s Kerwynn Williams, who led all Cardinals running backs with 19 carries in place of the injured Andre Ellington. Although Williams will likely be a popular pickup this week, owners should remember that his Week-14 breakout came at the expense of a porous Chiefs run defense. His Week 15 matchup against St. Louis, who allowed only 6 rushing yards to Alfred Morris in Week 14, should provide a considerably greater challenge.
59: Percentage of running plays by Denver in Week 14.
Weeks 13 and 14 represent the first times all season that the Broncos have run the ball more than they have thrown it. This includes blowout wins against Arizona, New York Jets, and Oakland when one might expect a run-heavy approach to run out the clock at the end of the game. To make matters worse, Peyton Manning’s 20 passing attempts are his fewest since 2006 (excluding games in which he was taken out early). If you survived his Week 14 no-show, this is a concerning trend. Last year, Manning’s lack of arm strength became a liability during the Broncos playoff run. Over the next three weeks, it would not be surprising if the Broncos continued to rely heavily on the run in order to let Manning’s arm rest.
10: DeMarco Murray’s historical ranking, in terms of total rushing yards after 13 games
Only nine players since 1960 have rushed for more yards than Murray in the first thirteen games of the season. This is only 37 yds less than Eric Dickerson had, en route to the all-time single-season rushing record (2105 yds). This is actually 6 more yards than Adrian Peterson had in 2012 when he came within 8 yds of the record and 12 more yards than Barry Sanders had in 1997 when he finished with 2,053 yds. Currently at 1,606, Murray would need to average just over 166 yds/game to achieve the all-time rushing record. Excitement over a rushing record is the exact type of thing Dallas owner Jerry Jones loves, which is great news for Murray owners. Don’t expect Dallas to rest Murray down the stretch unless he has a bad game that puts the record out of reach.
13: Targets/game for Martellus Bennett over the last two weeks.
This uptick in targets nearly doubles his average targets/game over Weeks 1–12 (7.5). On the season, Bennett has the Bears’ second highest number of targets behind Alshon Jeffery. With Brandon Marshall out for the season, Bennett has the potential to be the No. 1 tight end over the next three weeks.
20: Number of teams within one game of a playoff berth after Week 14.
Every year, great regular-season fantasy squads get undermined when NFL teams that are too far ahead or behind in the playoff hunt start resting players or giving unknown players extra opportunities. After Week 14, there are only eight offensive players that are in the top ten in their position, but not on a team within one game of the playoffs.
Beginning in 2010, the NFL made a conscious effort to schedule more conference games at the end of the season in order to increase the number of games with playoff implications. This year features the most conference games in Weeks 15–17 since that scheduling change (32 of 48 total games). Taking into account the 20 teams in the playoff hunt and the 32 upcoming divisional games, owners have a very good chance of seeing a consistent workload for their top players throughout the fantasy playoffs.
