In case you missed it, we recently unveiled the results of our 2014 accuracy competition. The honor of “Most Accurate Expert” went to John Paulsen (4for4), who took down 125 of the fantasy industry’s top pundits. Paulsen is the only expert to win this title multiple times and he has the highest accuracy rating over the past 5 seasons. It’s safe to say we’ll be inviting him back for another go-around next season.

With the season officially in the books, we thought it would be interesting to run an interview with the man that helped lead many owners to a title this season. We’ll learn more about how Paulsen produces his player rankings along with some advice he has for fantasy owners heading into 2015.

John Paulsen (4for4)

View Accuracy Score
Visit 4for4.com
Follow @4for4_John

Q1: You’ve now won the in-season accuracy competition twice (the only expert to do so). What’s the secret is to being consistently good at fantasy prognostication?

Paulsen: “We have a time-tested process at 4for4 that provides a good set of initial projections from which to work from each and every week. Then it’s my job to tweak the rankings to reflect my take on each position based on matchups, injuries, workload and the weather. When making tough rankings decisions, I tend to go with the more proven player (or situation) instead of trying to catch lightning in a bottle, and that generally pays off more than not over the course of a 16-game season.”

Q2: Can you briefly describe your process for coming up with your player rankings?

Paulsen: “Without giving too much away, each one of our projections is based on multiple variables that we have found to have a correlation to key statistics (passing yardage, touchdowns, etc.). These are generated each week based on historical and in-season data. Once all of the team stats are generated, I go through each position and adjust the rankings in what amounts to a giant start/sit exercise. I want our rankings to closely reflect what I would do with my own fantasy teams.”

Q3: What does a typical NFL Sunday look like in the Paulsen household, in terms of the crunch of giving advice, watching games, etc?

Paulsen: “I live in California, so with kickoff at 10 a.m., I’m usually up by 7 a.m., pounding coffee and starting to process the early news. Late game players that are questionable to play are probably the biggest challenge to rank since I have to assume they’re active, inactive or limited. Once the early game inactives are announced, I’ll adjust the rankings as needed.

Then for the final hour or so, I’ll continue to tweak based on the various reports from the beat writers (i.e. Torrey Smith looking very sore before his goose egg against the Dolphins in Week 14). I try to have the rankings finalized by a half hour before kickoff so subscribers who have a tough call have time to adjust their lineups if necessary.

Once the games start, I’m focused on the Packer game if it’s on, but I’ll also keep an eye on the Red Zone Channel to see what’s going on around the league. I’ll generally record the Sunday night game so I can spend some time with the family before the weekly grind starts again on Monday.”

Q4: Since you know a thing or two about handing out advice, do you have any tips for those reading this that are looking to break into the fantasy industry?

Paulsen: “I think it depends on the person. If you’re good with numbers, then an analytical approach would be your best bet. Put together a couple of interesting studies and approach a few of your favorite fantasy sites to see if they’d be interested in publishing your work (Inject humor when possible).

If your strength is your personality, bold takes, sense of humor, then your best bet would be to start your own podcast or offer to help out with someone else’s more established podcast. A sharp sense of humor is also valuable in print, for those who can write well. If you can’t write well — keep writing.

There may or may not be pay initially, but people shouldn’t go into the fantasy (advice) industry looking to get rich. I’m very fortunate to be a full-time fantasy football analyst as this type of job is still a rarity at this point.”

Q5: Who are a few writers that you consider must-follows for fantasy owners on Twitter?

Paulsen: “I keep a “fantasy football” list on Twitter that can be found here. I also have a “NFL News” list that I check regularly for breaking updates.

In terms of specific fantasy writers, there are too many to mention them all (see the list), but I’ll try to list a few of my favorites who usually tweet a lot: the guys at Yahoo (@andybehrens, @scott_pianowski, @YahooNoise), Pat Fitzmaurice (@Fitz_FF), Frank Dupont (@FantasyDouche), Chet Gresham (@Chet_G), Dr. Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel), Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL), Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom), Nick Raducanu (@ProjectRoto), the guys from Rotoworld (@evansilva, @adamlevitan, @rotopat) and Alex Miglio (@AlexMiglio). Finally, everyone should follow my colleague, @4for4_Josh, who owns and operates 4for4.com.

I’m sure I’m irritating more than a few analysts by failing to mention them, but that’s why I included the Twitter list. Generally, the hotter the take, the less inclined I am to follow someone. I’m more interested in intelligent and respectful discussion about players/rankings. We’re all just making educated guesses.”

Q6: As we look forward to 2015, who is one player you know you’ll be high on to make a leap above their current level?

Paulsen: “Tough to narrow to one, so I’ll discuss a few. With Frank Gore likely out of the picture, Carlos Hyde should see a big increase in touches heading into next season. Latavius Murray looks primed to take over as the lead back in Oakland, but owners should watch the offseason closely to see if the team adds another talented back to the roster. Michael Crabtree probably won’t be back in the Bay Area either, which should open the door for starter’s snaps for Stevie Johnson. Donte Moncrief could start as soon as 2015 if Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne (who are both free agents) aren’t back. At tight end, Travis Kelce should finish in the top 5 since his targets were up down the stretch (7.5 T/G over the final four weeks). And keep an eye on Cincinnati — Jermaine Gresham is a free agent. If the Bengals let him walk, it would open the door for big snaps for Tyler Eifert, who had a lost season in 2014. Finally, I’d expect Josh Gordon to bounce back if he lands in a good situation. He’s too talented to go out with a whimper.”

—

Thanks to John for stopping by to share his fantasy insights today and all season long. If you’d like to stay current on John’s advice during the offseason, be sure to give him a follow on Twitter: @4for4_John.