The Astros will try to take another step forward in 2015
Most people wouldn’t call a sub-.500 season a success. But let’s think back to 2013, when the regular season was coming to a close, and teams were gearing up for a post season run. If you look at the standings, you see a team accomplishing the rare feat of having more than double the amount of losses compared to wins. The Astros finished an abysmal 51-111 that season, and had a long way to go before they could be competitive.
The 2014 season came, and the Astros had few expectations placed upon them. They had a pitching staff full of unknowns and a lineup producing a lot of uncertainty. Any improvement from the 51-win season in 2013 would be welcomed and chalked up as another year towards the rebuild. However, the Astros didn’t just improve by 19 wins to 70-92, they introduced the fantasy world to some very valuable players.
In an aggressive offseason, the Astros were primarily searching for bullpen help, which they acquired (Pat Neshek, Luke Gregerson). Then they added a piece to their budding offense (Evan Gattis). Houston clearly wants to put the days of finishing well below .500 behind them, and hopes to have their rebuild to come to fruition sooner than later.
The Astros will be a sneaky team to watch in 2015 as they give the AL West a much tougher challenge than in the past. They will also be a team to look at for fantasy help.
Projected 2015 Lineup
1. SS – Jed Lowrie
2. 2B – Jose Altuve
3. LF – Evan Gattis
4. DH – Chris Carter
5. RF – George Springer
6. 3B – Matt Dominguez
7. 1B – Jon Singleton
8. C – Jason Castro
9. CF – Robbie Grossman
Projected 2015 Rotation
1. Scott Feldman (R)
2. Dallas Keuchel (L)
3. Collin McHugh (R)
4. Brett Oberholtzer (L)
5. Brad Peacock (R)
Closer: Chad Qualls (R)/Free Agent
The Astros have one of the better offensive clubs in the AL West headed into 2015. From top to bottom they possess power and speed and will surely rank up there in runs scored. It will be the starting pitching that determines whether or not the Astros can seriously compete. Led by veteran Scott Feldman, who would be a back-end starter on most other staffs, they are a relatively young rotation. Assuming they don’t sign an established closer, the ninth inning should go to Chad Qualls to begin the season, although a quick hook may be utilized should he struggle.
New Additions
Recently the Astros acquired Gattis from the Atlanta Braves. He has been a very good source of cheap power, but is a defensive liability. He figures to play left field, which should bode well for his balky knees, and he will get more at-bats than he would as a catcher. Gattis will be one of a few guys the Astros trot out every day that can put the ball over the fence with ease. He hit 21 and 22 home runs respectively in 2013 and 2014, and he did that in only 382 and 401 at-bats. Expect that number to rise closer to 30 home runs in 2015 as his at-bats should rise substantially with him playing left field and the occasional DH. Gattis will go in the middle rounds of drafts, but will come with a great return.
The Astros made a nice move when they brought Jed Lowrie back to the team after he spent two seasons with the Oakland Athletics. Lowrie has proved to be solid at the shortstop position since his last stop with the Astros in 2012, improving at the plate and staying relatively healthy. With the Athletics he raised his line drive rate to an average of 23.9% compared to his 2012 season in which he hit a line drive only 19.3% of the time. This should bode well as he plays his home games at Minute Maid Park, which has a very spacious outfield and lots of gaps to drive the ball into. Don’t expect to spend a draft pick on Lowrie, as his value just isn’t there right now, but he will surely be a hot pickup in all leagues if he hits well early on in this very talented Astros lineup.
After trading away Dexter Fowler recently, the Astros softened that blow by signing Colby Rasmus to a one-year pact. Defensively both players are very solid, but Rasmus is a much different style of hitter. Rather than being a guy who can get on base at a healthy clip and score runs, Rasmus is a high-risk, high-reward hitter. Last season Rasmus hit 18 home runs, but also struck out 124 times in only 346 at-bats. That is good for an incredibly high 33% strikeout rate. The Astros are fully aware of what they getting from Rasmus, and clearly they feel his home run power and solid defense is enough to offset his high strikeout rate. The main question for Rasmus is where he will hit in the order as the Astros currently don’t have a true leadoff man after losing Fowler. Wherever he bats he will be nothing more than a decent roto player that can provide a boost in the home run category. Let him go undrafted in all your leagues.
The Studs
It didn’t get much better than Jose Altuve last season. He was an elite roto player and ranked among the elite in head-to-head as well. Altuve was a menace at the plate (.341 BA), a menace at hitting in the gaps (47 doubles) and a menace on the base paths (56 steals). It was this all-around production that led Altuve to claim the American League Batting Title. While it is hard to expect Altuve to put up these numbers for a second season in a row, he should have no trouble coming close, especially with a full season hitting in front of Houston’s now very potent middle of the order. No matter the format, Altuve is a stud, and you should expect to spend a high draft pick if you want him this season.
Calling Chris Carter powerful is almost being modest. All this guy does is hit home runs. While power throughout the league is down, Carter has quickly ascended to the top of the ladder as one of the best power hitters in the league. In 2014 he blasted 37 home runs, second in all of MLB, and he hit them at an impressive rate of one every 15.4 plate appearances. However, with the good comes the bad as Carter struck out 187 times, also second most in the league. Because of those strikeouts, coupled with a low batting average, Carter will only be useful as a specialty player in roto leagues. He can help you out in a major way in the home run category and give you a solid total in both runs and runs batted in, but expect him to hurt you in batting average. Carter will be a mid-round pick in most roto drafts because of the home runs he provides, but he will likely go in the late rounds in most head-to-head drafts.
The fantasy world waited on pins and needles for the arrival of George Springer in 2014. The fantasy world was not disappointed, as Springer quickly showed flashes of immense talent and potential. He only played 78 games, but in those 78 games he showed us all we needed to see. He blasted 20 home runs, scored 40 runs, and accumulated 51 RBI before suffering an injury to his quadriceps that landed him on the DL. That injury should be healed, so he enters the spring healthy, assured of a roster spot, and ready to make a possible leap to elite status. While risk is present when spending a high draft pick on Springer, the potential makes it worthwhile. It would not be surprising to see Springer end up with 30 home runs, 90 R, 90 RBI, 20 SB, and bat .260. Draft Springer with confidence.
Sleeper
Finding a sleeper on this team is sort of tough. The roster and pitching staff is pretty cut and dried in terms of fantasy value. The one guy I do feel could exceed expectations in a big way is the one-time breakout catcher Jason Castro. Castro had his best season in 2013 when he batted .276 with 18 HR, 63 R, and 56 RBI in only 491 plate appearances. When everybody thought Castro would vault into the top-10 at the catcher position for the 2014 season, he was abysmal. Most fantasy owners cut him after the first couple of weeks, and he never gained fantasy relevance at any point last season. However, 2015 is an opportunity for a fresh start, and expectations are down. This could very well lead to a season like in 2013, and possibly even better. Hitting in a much stronger lineup will create more RBI opportunities, while pressure is off him to be one of the main producers on the team. A relaxed player at the plate is usually a good thing, and I believe the low expectations paired with a better lineup will lead to a very good season from Castro. He will likely go undrafted in most leagues, but be ready to snatch him off the waiver wire if he starts out hot because it probably won’t be a fluke.
Bust
If you drafted Dallas Keuchel last season, you get some sort of an award, because this guy was a surprise to say the least. He won a lot of games for the lucky fantasy owners that were able to snag him. Not only that but he did it by only going 12-9. He did post a 2.93 ERA over 200 innings, which made him one of the better pitchers in fantasy. Everything he did last season, paired with an improved offense to give him run support, suggests that Keuchel should be even better. I will even admit all his advanced statistics were very good, but my gut says he will be a bust. Keuchel is a soft-throwing lefty that relies on changing speeds to induce weak contact, as evidenced by his 143 strikeouts over 200 innings pitched last season. Not only was his strikeout rate low, but hitter’s batting average on balls put in play (BABIP) was .295 against Keuchel, which led to a very good 75.5% of runners left on base. Being a soft-throwing pitcher that relies on a lot of luck is not something I look for when I target starting pitching in fantasy. You are welcome to select Keuchel, because that means you are letting a better pitcher slide to me in the draft.
Prospect Watch
The No. 1 overall pick of the 2012 MLB Draft is the guy you want when prospect hunting in the Astros organization. They have a couple other strong contenders–Mark Appel and Colin Moran–but the position scarcity (SS) and the potential of Correa are the reasons he is the guy I want. With the signing of Jed Lowrie the Astros clearly showed that they feel Correa is not ready to join the major-league ball club yet, but should an injury to Lowrie occur and Correa have a strong showing in the minor leagues, he may get a call-up. More than likely he will not see time in the majors in 2015, however, so Correa is certainly a long-term investment. Although he’s not a power guy, he makes contact at an incredible rate and projects to be a .300 hitter in the majors. He should also be able to drive in and score a respectable amount of runs. With so much uncertainty surrounding the shortstop position, Correa could become a top-10 option the minute he gets the call-up, and have the potential for more. If you play in a redraft league, don’t bother selecting Correa, but for dynasty leagues he should be one of the top players on the board.
Fantasy Baseball 2015 Preview Series
Kyle Smith is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @SmittyCity45
