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AL East: 2015 Bold Predictions

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Jamie Calandro shares his bold predictions for the AL East in 2015.

Note: This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts. For more insight from Jamie at Fantasy Team Advice.

Bold predictions are fun to make. They create interesting conversation among sports fans, and when one of them actually comes true, you look like a genius. It may sound like you’re playing the lottery (or some version of it), but think about all the surprises that occur in every fantasy season. I bet somewhere someone predicted it would happen (even if they didn’t say it). Given the peripherals and high K-rate he was displaying in 2013, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if someone said Corey Kluber would win a Cy Young. That being said, let’s have some fun and launch into some bold predictions for the AL East, and start the conversation!

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BOSTON RED SOX

My Bold Prediction: Mookie Betts will be the most valuable fantasy player on the Boston Red Sox.

Yes, I’m talking about the same Red Sox that just added Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Rusney Castillo (not to mention they still have David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia). As a Yankees fan, I can already see that Betts is going to be a player I hate for years as he starts to terrorize AL East pitchers (and catchers on the basepaths). Hitting mostly from the bottom of the order last year, Betts posted an .812 OPS with 5 HR, 7 SB, and 18 XBH in 51 games. This year he should be entrenched as the Sox leadoff hitter, opening up the distinct possibility of 100+ runs with the boppers behind him, along with at least 30 SBs. His power upside is limited, but Fenway Park is so friendly to RHB that I can see him flirting with 12-15 HR. Another positive stat is that his K% has not fluctuated at all during his ascent through the Red Sox organization (14.2% in AAA and 14.6% in the majors), which shows that he is not as vulnerable to the top-notch out pitches as some of the other rookies.

NEW YORK YANKEES

My Bold Prediction: Carlos Beltran will hit 25+ HR and drive in 85+ runs.

Beltran went pretty early in a lot of drafts (for his age and declining stats) due to the expected bump in power hitting in the confines of Yankee Stadium. A bone spur in his right elbow quickly derailed any thoughts of that, causing him to post a career low .703 OPS and miss 53 games. I think he is a strong candidate for a bounce-back year, and should earn consideration for Comeback Player of the Year for a few reasons. First (and most importantly), he got surgery on that elbow immediately after the season ended, and he is expected to be fully healthy for spring training and the start of the season. He has had optimal rest and rehab time, and all the Yankees brass are claiming that the injury is a “non-issue”. We can also revisit the argument about the park factor. Yankee stadium ranks second in the American League as far as being hitter-friendly to left-handed batters, and even though Beltran is a switch-hitter, he has had 4,709 total at-bats from the left side as opposed to 1,852 from the right. He has a career .367 wOBA and should bat right in the heart of that order. The addition of Garrett Jones should also give the Yankees ample opportunity to give Beltran frequent DH days (as long as A-Rod doesn’t bogart them all).

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

My Bold Prediction: Josh Donaldson will finish with at least .280/30/110 RBI/105 R

The Max Scherzer and James Shields signings (whenever he decides to go) are likely to overshadow the impact that Toronto made on their team when they traded for Josh Donaldson. He is coming off a season where he slashed .255/.342/.456 with 29 HR, 98 RBI, 93 runs, 8 SB, and a .798 OPS over 158 games, and that was in O.co Coliseum which tends to be much more pitcher-friendly. This year he will hit in the much less cavernous Rogers Centre, and will most likely settle in right behind arguably the best power tandem in baseball (Bautista and Encarnacion). He posted an elite 6.4 WAR last season, and RBI opportunities will be plentiful for the high-scoring Jays. It also helps that he doesn’t get hurt.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

My Bold Prediction: Chris Davis will hit 40 HR again

Thanks to Davis’ .286/53/138 outburst in 2013, he became one of the biggest busts of 2014 with an ADP hovering right around 6-7. It’s important to remember, however, that 2013 is not his only good season. In 2012, he posted a very viable .827 OPS with 33 HR and 85 RBI. This is vital because it establishes a trend, and Davis’ .242 BABIP last season suggests that he dealt with a decent amount of bad luck along the way. It also helps that two of the elite LHP in the AL East last year (Lester and Price) have left for other divisions, minimizing his exposure to their off-the-charts L/L K-rates. If you’re chasing 50+ homers again, you’re going to be left wanting, but since his draft stock has dropped after last year, you can get a nice value with him this year (remember, power is at a premium now that baseball has cleaned up the steroids).

TAMPA BAY RAYS

My Bold Prediction: Brad Boxberger will quickly take over the closers’ role and be a top-ten option.

I thought it was too easy to say something like “Tampa is going to stink this year”, so I dug really deep on this one. Right now Jake McGee is listed atop the closer depth chart, but I believe Tampa will soon realize what a special talent they have in Boxberger. In 64.2 innings last year, he recorded an unreal 14.49 K/9, and his 42.1% K-rate was the third-highest in the majors out of all pitchers who threw 50 innings or more. It’s also worth noting that he finished ahead of Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Dellin Betances. Mark it down – you’ll not only see elite peripherals again, but 30 saves to go along with them.


Jamies is the Lead Baseball Writer for Fantasy Team Advice. You can follow him on Twitter @jac3600.

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