Tom Brady and the Patriots will look to get payback for their playoff loss in 2013 to the Ravens
With 4 more games on tap this weekend, the Divisional Round playoffs are here! To kick off the festivities (Sat 4:35pm ET), the Ravens will have to head to Foxborough once again in order to advance in the playoffs. History tells us the Ravens should have no issue heading into a pressure game as they’re 2-1 against the Patriots in playoff runs on the road.
Frigid temperatures will be greeting the Ravens as it’s expected to be sub-20 degrees. Tom Brady has already gone out and said, “I’m a (bleeping) machine, man, I’m a (bleeping) machine! C’mon baby!” when discussing his play in cold weather. The teams are likely ready and so are the experts with their picks and commentary for the game listed below. If you’re looking to ride the hot hand, 2 of the top 3 highest rated experts in terms of their Wild Card picks are going with Baltimore being 7 point dogs.
Divisional Round Picks: Against the Spread
Carolina at Seattle (-11)
Dallas at Green Bay (-6)
Indianapolis at Denver (-7)
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Pick %
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57% | 43% |
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“I like the Patriots to win this game, but I think 7 points is too many. Baltimore has won 7 playoff games on the road with head coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco. This is an experienced team that knows how to win in the postseason. They are not going to turn the ball over a ton or make stupid mistakes that will let the game become one-sided. New England is my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and I think they will survive this game, not win it by more than a touchdown. “
– Derek Lofland FFManiax “I know this is a much better Patriots team than the last two playoffs meetings they had, where Baltimore has covered the spread (one was an outright victory), but I just can’t shake the fact that the Ravens get up for this game every year. The secondary is not good for Baltimore, but they have been improving and with the return of Haloti Ngata that defensive front seven is going to get after Brady rattling him once again. I expect a very close competitive game here.”
– Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack “Baltimore has had New England’s number even in Foxboro under Jon Harbaugh. If Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff didn’t have all time bloopers a few years ago Harbaugh would be undefeated in the playoffs in New England. I expect Will Hill to cover Rob Gronkowski and and be a key to the Ravens stopping Tom Brady and company. “
– Dennis Esser Coach Esser “I feel the Patriots will pull this one out as this is the best defense they’ve brought to a playoff dance with the Ravens. That being said Baltimore will keep it close and cover the spread.”
– Walton Spurlin Fantasy Sharks “The Baltimore front-seven will do enough to keep this game close. While the New England offense is built around the passing game, they don’t necessarily have the deep attack to exploit Baltimore’s weak secondary. Take the Ravens and the under in this game.”
– R.J. White Fantasy Football Cafe “Seems like this really comes down to the likes of Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs supplying enough pass-rush pressure, especially up the middle, so Tom Brady cannot take advantage of Baltimore’s suspect secondary.
Pick against the Ravens at your own risk at this point. I won’t with the spread, but I will in the game. “ – Ben Standig CSN Washington “Tom Brady has never been “Tom Brady” vs. the Ravens. He’s 1-2 vs. the Ravens in the postseason over his career with numbers such as these: 56% completion, 5.4 YPA, 3:7 TD/int. I’ve also always felt Brady doesn’t perform as well vs. 3-4 defenses & his numbers against those defenses are all below his averages this year: 61.8%, 6.97 YPA, and 11:6 TD/int. Flacco is a different QB in the postseason, the Ravens secondary is in the best shape it’s been in all year, and the Ravens simply flat-out compete at this time of the year. Like the Ravens plus the points.”
– Tom Poisal Top Tier Football “New England will squeak out a win, but I think this will be a relatively underwhelming day for both offenses.”
– Matt De Lima FF Toolbox “The Ravens have won 2 of their past 3 games in Foxborough as they aim for another huge AFC upset. Joe Flacco has been untouchable in January! Say what you want about him, but this guy knows how to win when it truly matters. In Flacco’s last 5 games, he has thrown 13 TD’s and zero picks. He’s also thrown 166 postseason throws with zero picks. The Ravens are heading into this matchup with Offensive Line injury questions, which is very concerning, considering that they face a now fully healthy Patriots Defense that have only allowed 6 pass TD’s in their past 6 games! We still like the Patriots in this game, but we don’t think they’ll cover the spread.”
– Tozzi Brothers Legion Report “Give me 7 or more in a playoff game and I am always taking the points. Joe Flacco is as good as it gets in the playoffs.”
– Ken Zalis Pressbox “I’m eating my words after last weeks picks. After weeks of watching the Ravens struggle to move the chains they put up points on the Steelers with ease. Baltimore knows New England fairly well and I feel they should stay competitive. I’ll take the points”
– Mike Rigz Gridiron Experts  “I worry that last week’s game against the Steelers was the Super Bowl for the 2014 Ravens, but hard-hitting defenses always seem to give the Patriots trouble. I expect New England to win, but Baltimore should keep this contest competitive.”
– Greg Smith The Fake Football “The Ravens have a history of playing the Patriots close or even beating them – even on the road. So while the Patriots would seem to be heavy favorites in this game, I think the Ravens can keep it close. Joe Flacco and his teammates play at a different level during playoff time, so I expect this to be a close, hard fought game.”
– Jeff Paur RTSports “The Ravens have plenty of playoff experience and won’t be intimidated by a postseason trip to Foxboro. “
– Justin Boone The Score “I expect New England to win the game, but a Baltimore upset wouldn’t shock me and I think the Ravens can at least keep it close. Baltimore is 7-4 in playoff road games under Joe Flacco and the Ravens have fared well against the Patriots in recent years, winning two of their last three January trips to Foxborough. “
– Jason Willan Gridiron Experts “You can always count the Ravens to show up in road playoff games and games against the New England Patriots. I ultimately think New England hangs on, but getting 7 points for the Ravens is generous.”
– Staff Rankings 2MugsFF “The Patriots have been on a mission since starting the year 2-2. Take away a meaningless week 17 loss to the Bills, and they went on a torrid 10-1 run to end the year. They’re at home and Baltimore’s secondary can be beat, so I like the Pats to win. That being said, the Ravens are no slouch and have an aggressive defense. They aren’t about to get stomped out with the season on the line. Look for them to beat the spread.”
– Kevin Roberts Breaking Football “The Ravens struggle defending deep throws, but that’s not exactly the Pats’ strength on offense. Baltimore’s pass rush vs. New England’s offensive line will decide this game. “
– Dalton Del Don Yahoo “Baltimore is playing good football on both sides of the ball right now, and Joe Flacco has been great in the playoffs in recent years. Baltimore’s secondary is a concern, but the Patriots don’t really have the deep threats to make the Ravens pay.”
– John Paulsen 4for4.com “It wouldn’t surprise me if the Patriots blew the Ravens’ doors off, but I think it’s more likely that the Ravens hang close. The Ravens’ assets — a strong defensive front seven, a balanced offense and a good coaching staff — and their recent playoff history against the Patriots won’t allow me to lay the seven points.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl “I think Suggs and Dumervil will give Brady happy feet, which slowed him down against Miami and KC earlier this year (not to mention the Giants in Super Bowls past). Not sure it will be enough to beat the Pats, but it should be a 3-point game one way or the other.”
– Kevin Kumpf Razzball “According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, these two teams are almost dead even. For whatever reason it doesn’t feel that way, but that’s what the numbers say. Baltimore has one glaring weakness; they rank 31st in DVOA against deep passes. But as Grantland’s Bill Barnwell pointed out in his preview of this game, New England isn’t particularly suited to take advantage of that weakness as Tom Brady only went deep on 19% of his passes, only the 30th highest rate in the league. The numbers say Baltimore could win this game, so I’ll certainly take them plus a touchdown.”
– Brett Talley The Fantasy Fix “Tom Brady is, evidently, a —- machine, and I have no concerns about a well oiled Patriots’ offense backed by a defense that has improved considerably since they last fell to Baltimore in the playoffs, coming off a bye, coming away with the victory. With that said, it is hard to envision this as a game they run away with. Expect the Ravens to put some pressure on Brady and get him off his spot, leading to a tightly contested game. Baltimore has only lost two games by more than seven points this year.”
– Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR |
“As much as I’d like to see Baltimore best New England, I don’t see it happening. The Ravens were mediocre at best against the pass this year and Joe Flacco threw nine of his 12 interceptions playing away from home. The Patriots cover the spread without too much difficulty. “
– Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts “The Ravens are most likely the best matchup for the Patriots, but the main reason why New England will get the victory, is because of their defense. This is the best unit that the Patriots have had in 10 years, and they have not given up a 2nd half touchdown since week 11 against the Colts. The Patriots were 8th overall in points allowed at 19.6, and they limited opposing quarterbacks to an under 60% completion percentage. I think this is the game where the Patriots have great match ups with Revis and Browner, and you will see Brady exploit that Ravens secondary. “
– Dan Yanotchko EDSFootball “Not buying the Ravens’ alleged upset mojo. They played well last week against a shorthanded Steeler team, but they struggled through much of the second half of the season. Also, while the Ravens’ point differential is +107, 88 of that margin came against the weak NFC South (they caught the Panthers early). The Pats are the better team.
“ – John Halpin Fox Sports “Joe Flacco vs Tom Brady. That’s all I can think about when I look at this matchup, and it’s in New England. Brady simply doesn’t lose at home, and their defense has stepped up this year with the addition of Darrelle Revis. I did hesitate when I made the pick, and while this is probably the least confident pick of the bunch, I still like the Patriots. The only thing that scares me is that John Harbaugh’s teams don’t get blown out in the playoffs. I almost feel like this game could be a push with the 7 point spread. “
– Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football “Joe Flacco has had pretty good success against the Patriots in the past, but I think the Pats corners Revis/Browner will be able to handle the Ravens WR’s in man coverage which will help the Pats bring the heat on Flacco, and stop Forsett in the running game. “
– Sean Beazley EDSFootball “Brady seems to be back to his old form, the Patriots have had plenty of rest and the Ravens could be facing a classic hangover scenario following a big win. I’ll take New England to cover.”
– The FFGhost Dynasty League Football “A line of seven is tough, because the general outcome of most NFL games are by a touchdown, or a multiple of seven and/or three. But with the Patriots at home with an extra week of rest, this is where they flourish. Rob Gronkowski is healthy, Tom Brady is healthy, and the Patriots’ defense is as good as it has been in a few years. Despite Joe Flacco’s “magic” in the postseason, the Patriots are too much to handle for a team with an injury-ridden secondary. 31-23 Patriots. “
– Josh Collacchi eDraft “I cannot in good faith roll with the team (Baltimore) that ended the season struggling to beat Blake Bortles, got stomped by Case Keenum, and escaped Connor Shaw to back into the playoffs…just because they beat Pittsburgh without Le’Veon Bell last weekend. I’ll take the Patriots—winners of 10 of their last 11 games that mattered to them. “
– R.C. Fischer Fantasy Football Metrics “New England, at home, on two weeks rest against a decent but not elite Baltimore team. A double digit win should be easy to come by.”
– Benjamin Zeidler FantasyFifty “New England is 8-2 ATS in their last ten games as a home favorite by 3.5-7 points. Look for them to be in total control of this game.”
– Jeff Collins Fantasy Contrarians “Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco is being considered an elite QB now with playoff wins on the road against of future Hall of Fame QB’s Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. Hurray for Flacco! This week however, the fun-ride comes to an end in New England. The Patriot’s have a Top 10 defense on points allowed per game and coming off a bye-week, look for the “Hoodie” to have some sexy defensive schemes. I’ll take the points and ride the Pat’s to victory; oh I feel so dirty saying that as a New York Jets fan.”
– Paul Greco Paul Greco Sports “The Brady versus Baltimore talk is a bit overstated if you look at the actual numbers. Sure, he hasn’t thrown for more than one touchdown against the Ravens the last three games, but how many did Brady have Gronk for? Just one. A game where he threw for 335 yards with one touchdown and no picks. Since Week 5 when Brady’s slow start ended, the Pats average margin of victory is 17.8, and it jumps to 21.9 if you take out the two Jets games.”
– Jake Ciely RotoExperts “New England will come out gunning; Baltimore is no slouch but they just won’t have enough on both sides of the ball to pull this out. “
– James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru “I think New England figures out the Ravens at home. Ravens don’t have much of an answer for Gronk.”
– Mike Woellert Fake Pigskin “If the Steelers had Bell healthy, the Ravens wouldn’t be playing in this game.”
– Ross Miles Pro Football Focus “I know Baltimore knows how to win in New England, but I don’t know if Baltimore has ever taken this bad of a secondary into a game against Tom Brady. The Patriots have too many difference makers on offense and defense.”
– Scott Whitfield Roto Rankings “Although Baltimore usually plays New England tough, they have injuries in their secondary and Belichick is smart enough to take advantage. I expect Tom Brady to show up in a big way, with the Patriots winning comfortably by 10 points or more”
– KJ Fantasy Team Advice “I can’t pick all dogs this week. While it would be great for storyline’s sake to see Baltimore go in to Foxborough and get a win, it’s not going to happen. New England should be able to outproduce the Ravens offensively and they have just enough defense to get it done against Flacco and company. Gronkowski is nearly matchup proof, and I just don’t think Baltimore has enough offensive potential to compete for very long in this one. I’m picking New England to cover.”
– Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland “StatSims SimEngine likes the match up between Tom Brady and the Ravens secondary to go the Patriots way:
Ravens: 22.5 (Sims Won 31.8%) |
Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below.
