Even with Le’Veon Bell out on Sunday the experts still like Pittsburgh to cover the spread
For the non-Daily players, fantasy football is over, but that doesn’t mean we’re done asking the experts for advice. We’ve got 4 playoff games on tap this weekend and we’re sure more than a few of you have a “rooting” interest in the outcomes. To help steer you in the right direction, we polled 50+ experts to get their picks against the spread for each game.
The night cap on Saturday (8:15pm EST) is a rematch between the heated division rivals: Ravens at Steelers (-3). These two teams have traditionally played tight games, but 2014 gave each team a lopsided win during the season. There is one man that is making this a tough one to a call (Le’Veon Bell), so read on to see who the experts like against the spread this weekend.
Wild Card Picks: Against the Spread
Arizona at Carolina (-6.5)
Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3)
Detroit at Dallas (-6.5)
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35% | 65% |
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“It’s the AFC North. Normally…yes, normally, these are close-fought battles no matter the two teams. But, when you add in no Le’Veon Bell, I don’t see how the Steelers can run away with this one (pun kinda intended).”
– Jake Ciely RotoExperts “Two 20-point results this year, after five straight nail-biters decided by three point or less. The usual black-and-blue battle should be an aerial attack; both defenses ranked among bottom 10 against the pass this season. Then again, reports call for rain throughout, and a wet-and-wild element. Pittsburgh wins, but taking the points is always the way to-go in this series. Fantasy hero: Antonio Brown went 18-234-1 in two games versus Baltimore this season.”
– Ben Standig CSN Washington  “I’m writing this Friday morning, and I wish I had a better gauge on Le’Veon Bell’s availability (and/or ability to be effective if he plays). Close call, and Bell’s uncertainty tips my decision toward the Ravens.”
– John Halpin Fox Sports “Divisional matchups in the NFC North are always close affairs. Losing Le’Veon Bell may not doom the Terrible Towels to a first-round loss, but I think the Ravens will find a way to keep this contest within a field goal.”
– Micah James Micah James – FFMagicMan “One of the best rivalries in the NFL, these two teams have historically played each other close and I think they are fairly even at full strength. With the (likely) loss of one of the league’s most dynamic players (Le’Veon Bell), I’d prefer to take the points in what should be a close game that can go either way.”
– Kevin Hanson EDSFootball “The Ravens get back Haloti Ngata, while the Steelers could be without star back Le’Veon Bell. A veteran team like Baltimore is more than capable of getting a playoff win on the road. ”
– Justin Boone The Score “Classic rivalry game pitting 2 teams/cities that don’t really like each other. Pittsburgh is probably without their Mr. Everything in Le’Veon Bell which is a crushing blow in the biggest game of the year for them. The cast of characters replacing Bell won’t be able to do anything against the 3rd best rush defense in the NFL getting Haloti Ngata back. In the passing game, a lot has been said about how to attack the Ravens through the air but the Steelers were actually worse against the pass so Joe Flacco should use his playoff experience to post solid numbers in what has been a career year for him. Ravens have the better defense (by far), better running game (since Bell is out) and the intangibles of being a postseason regular. Ravens win out right. ”
– Tom Poisal Top Tier Football “Le’Veon Bell is a tough dude, but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be at full capacity with a hyperextended knee. The Steelers may well be forced to take to the air, and though the Ravens’ secondary is in shambles, Bell’s injury might allow Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs to pin their ears back and go hard after Ben Roethlisberger on every dropback. The Ravens win this one outright.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl “This game will come down to the health and availability of Le’Veon Bell, who did not practice Thursday. Assuming Bell is out; the game will fall squarely on the shoulders of Ben Roethlisberger. Unfortunately for Ben, he doesn’t have a reliable pass blocking running back to protect him against the stout front seven of the Ravens; who welcome back NT Haloti Ngata. With Ngata’s return and nobody to protect Ben, perhaps the Ravens try to get pressure with just four and drop into coverage to protect their leaky secondary; who gave up the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. This rivalry game sets up well for Flacco, who I think will pepper Steve Smith Sr. often to set up Torrey Smith. I really like Justin Forsett as well because the Steelers allowed the second most receptions to running backs in the last 4 weeks of the season. I’ll take the Ravens and the points due to Bell’s current status.”
– Scott Whitfield Roto Rankings “While I hate on Joe Flacco quite often, you can’t deny that he and John Harbaugh seem to know what they are doing in the playoffs. It’s been an up and down season for the Steelers and their aging defense, so look for the Ravens to control the clock via their run game. The Steelers potential loss of Le’Veon Bell is just too much to overcome. ”
– Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football “Pitt is a team that can take down New England or Denver, but also lose to anyone. I can understand them being favored at home with a healthy Bell, but with his status in doubt I’ll take the points.”
– Kevin Kumpf Razzball “This is the one dog I’m picking of the week. Pittsburgh could find themselves without the service of their super star, Le’Veon Bell. At the very least, Bell won’t be 100%. That means the responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Big Ben and the aerial attack to Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. I’m expecting Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense to find success against a Pittsburgh pass defense that is in the bottom of the league. It’s going to be a tough fought game between divisional rivals, but I’m going with Baltimore in this one. ”
– Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland “The Steelers have the upside to not only win this game but go into Denver and win again the following week. But the Ravens are getting Haloti Ngata back, forming a dominant front seven that helped them produce the third best point differential in the AFC this season (and sixth best in the NFL), so I’ll take the points.”
– Dalton Del Don Yahoo |
“I’m sure a lot of people will lean towards picking the Ravens this week with reports about Le’Veon Bell possibly not suiting up. Baltimore is an enticing pick at +3, but I not sold. The Ravens offense has looked flat and Big Ben is having an excellent season. I like the Steelers cover. ”
– Mike Rigz Gridiron Experts “Le’Veon Bell being out is going to be a huge moral killer for Pittsburgh but Big Ben and Antonio Brown have been hot, but this is a bit of a coin flip. ”
– James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru “Steelers have won eight of their last 10 games and their second ranked passing offense trounced the Ravens’ 23rd ranked passing defense in their last meeting.”
– Igor Derysh XN Sports “The Ravens literally limped to the Playoffs losing to a Case Keenum Texans Offense and squeezing by a Connor Shaw Browns Offense. This outcome literally depends on the status of LeVeon Bell as we expect a major running attack from both sides as there is a 90% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds in Pittsburgh. ”
– Tozzi Brothers Legion Report “Steelers offense has been on fire over these past few weeks. While the Ravens had a strong season, they struggled to put up points against the Texans and Browns to close out the year. Steelers are playing confident football and are the team less likely to make big mistakes. If Le’Veon Bell plays they should advance.”
– Muntradamus Beast Dome “Pittsburgh is hostile environment, especially in the playoffs. I think the game will be somewhat close, but in the end the Pittsburgh pass attack will be too much for Baltimore’s secondary.”
– Pat James Fantasy Council “This is one of the toughest matchups to handicap this weekend. With LeVeon Bell’s injury it will fall on Big Ben to get the job done. He has the weapons to do it with Antonio Brown and the cast of misfits. The Steelers and Raven have played three postseason games all-time (2001, 2008, 2010), with the Steelers winning all three. Oh by the way all have been played at Heinz Field.”
– Paul Greco FantasyPros911 “Pittsburgh has won and covered in four straight games now. They are 7-2 ATS this year in games where the line is +3 to -3. The home team has won each time the Ravens/Steelers have matched up for the last two years now (4-0).”
– Jeff Collins Fantasy Contrarians “The home team has won every game in this AFC North matchup in each of the last two years, and Pittsburgh (notably QB Ben Roethlisberger) has been more productive at home in 2014. Look for Big Ben and co. to fare well against a Ravens secondary that has yielded the 5th most yards in the league and while I’d expect a close contest, I think they’ll be able to top this number.”
– Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR “In a series that usually is decided by a touchdown or less, the Steelers and Ravens have changed everyone’s thinking by splitting their 2014 series with two blowout wins a piece. The reality is, Pittsburgh has the better offense and is at home. Baltimore’s run defense could be a problem – especially if Le’Veon Bell is out or limited – but the Steelers are red hot with 4 straight wins and should be able to cover at home.”
– Kevin Roberts Breaking Football “Big Ben has been much better at home and Steelers have been rolling since activating Martavis Bryant”
– Chris Meaney Fantasy Sports LR “This game is incredibly difficult to pick, because nobody is certain whether Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell will be able to play this weekend (knee). The Steelers don’t need him to rush for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns, but they need him to give balance to the offense so that QB Ben Roethlisberger can pick apart one of the worst secondary units in football. I like the Steelers in this game, they are at home and as long as the Steelers have some semblance of a running game, they should prevail.”
– Derek Lofland FFManiax “While the injury to Bell is a bit scary for this call, I think Pittsburgh has enough fire power to pull out the win at home. Antonio Brown has played at an MVP level all year and he should easily torch the Baltimore secondary. ”
– Dennis Esser Coach Esser “This line only slightly favors Pittsburgh because of the health concerns surrounding Le’Veon Bell. If he were 100-percent, what’s the spread? I’m confident Bell will be back and the threat of that running game blows things open for Antonio Brown to trounce the Ravens.”
– Matt De Lima FF Toolbox “This is one of the harder picks this week in my opinion. The divisional rivalry is a near tossup but it’s hard not to like the Steelers the way they’ve been playing. The Steelers are 7-4-1 against the Ravens since 2008 including a 2-0 ATS playoff record against them though its worth noting that half of those games were decided by a field goal or less. In a crapshoot I’ll take Big Ben and the 2nd ranked Steelers passing attack.”
– Sean Morris Bruno Boys “Big Ben beats up one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Joe Flacco hasn’t looked sharp as of late, so I am taking the home team. ”
– Sean Beazley EDSFootball “Even without Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers should have a field day with the Baltimore secondary.”
– John Paulsen 4for4.com “If Le’Veon Bell doesn’t play the Baltimore Ravens obviously have a better chance, but I’m still siding with Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Co. against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this year.”
– Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts “Despite potentially playing with the leagues best all-around running back, Pittsburgh remains the team with the most talented quarterback and the most dangerous play-maker. I like the Steelers to win by a touchdown, but expect another classic Pittsburgh/Baltimore slug-fest. ”
– Wayne Bretsky BretskyBall “Potentially missing Le’Veon Bell is obviously a big blow to the Steelers, but Big Ben and Antonio Brown have been playing well enough (especially at home) that I’ll take Pittsburgh and the points in this one. ”
– Jason Willan Gridiron Experts “Baltimore’s offensive line is beat up, and their secondary has been one of the worst in football. Bad news when facing a red hot duo of Big Ben and Antonio Brown.”
– Adam Pfeifer ProjectRoto “Ben Roethlisberger plays very good at home and that will be the difference.”
– Walton Spurlin Fantasy Sharks “Big Ben hung six touchdowns on the Ravens in their last meeting and proved that if Bell is out he can step up and pass the Steelers to victory. When you consider the fact that the Steelers have never lost to the Ravens in the postseason then you get the sense that the Steelers will move on.”
– The FFGhost Dynasty League Football “Ben, without Bell, is forced to grind out the game through the air and with his legs. ”
– Tony Mauriello ProjectRoto “Big Ben and Antonio Brown shred this Baltimore secondary just like they did two months ago.”
– Jeff Ratcliffe Pro Football Focus “You could argue for either of these teams, because every time they get together it seems to be a brawl. The fear with picking the Steelers is a missing Le’Veon Bell, but his absence may lead to two key opportunities: (1) We might see a nice ‘splash’ from rookie Dri Archer…a 4.2+ runner, and a RB/WR hybrid. In 2012, as a junior, Archer ran for 1,429 yards and 16 TDs for Kent State, while racking up 561 receiving yards and 4 more TDs. The Ravens are likely not ready for Archer, because no one has seen a heavy dose of him with Pittsburgh in 2014. (2) This game could turn out to be an aerial shootout of two quality QBs facing very flawed pass defenses…in that case, I’ll side with Big Ben on that one. I also prefer to stay away from the team (BAL) with a banged up O-Line.”
– R.C. Fischer Fantasy Football Metrics “Losing Le’Veon Bell will force the Steelers to go to the aerial game. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, that’s Baltimore’s weakness. Ben Roethlisberger has beaten Joe Flacco in 8 of 12 meetings and with the Steelers holding the home field advantage, I think Pittsburgh wins a close one. ”
– Jody Smith Jody Smith – Gridiron Experts “Even without Le’von Bell, the Steelers have the best matchup through the air, and I believe this will be similar to the November 2nd contest that went 43-23 in favor of Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger was able to throw for 340 yards and 6 TD’s, and he gets a Raven’s secondary that gives up 249 passing yards per game. ”
– Dan Yanotchko EDSFootball “Even though Le’Veon Bell likely won’t play, I don’t trust the Ravens on the road in this matchup. I’m not sure the Ravens 24th rated pass defense can do enough to contain Ben Roethlisberger and his teammates. Remember, Big Ben had six touchdowns his last outing against the Ravens.”
– Jeff Paur RTSports “Sure, Le’Veon Bell may not play. But the true mismatch comes from the NFL’s coleader in passing and leader in receiving going against a severely undermanned Baltimore secondary. I don’t see Pittsburgh having any trouble picking up big chunks of yardage and matching Baltimore point for point even if the Baltimore offense plays at a high level on the road.”
– R.J. White Fantasy Football Cafe “Baltimore’s secondary is weak and I don’t see a way that they’ll be able to stop Ben Roethlisberger and his crop of young and talented receivers. Obviously Le’veon Bell being hurt is an issue. If he doesn’t play that will hurt their offense, but like I mentioned initially, I think this is a bad matchup for Baltimore.”
– Russell Clay Dynasty League Football “If LeVeon Bell was 100 percent this contest would be decided by double digits. The Ravens have unimpressive down the stretch and home field will prove to be the difference.”
– Dan Clasgens Get Sports Info |
Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below.
