Christian Yelich has the potential to be one of the top outfielders in the majors

We are now one week closer to Spring Training. That means two more bold predictions. This week we feature a potential comeback pitcher, Jose Quintana, and breakout hitter, Christian Yelich.

Christian Yelich has a 15/15 Season and Finishes as a Top 15 Outfielder

You can never go wrong by targeting 5-tool players to fill out the last of your starters. In the best case scenario, they put it all together as Michael Brantley did in 2015, and become one of the most valuable players in the league. Even in the worst case, your team will not crash and burn because your 7th or 8th round draft pick was a bust. Now, I’m not suggesting Christian Yelich is the next Michael Brantley; I am certainly not that bold. However, Yelich’s current top-250 ranking is 73 (courtesy of ESPN), which equates to the early 8th round for ten-team leagues. This provides an excellent opportunity to buy low and expect profit.

Perhaps the best part of drafting Christian Yelich in 2015, is that, no matter what, you’re getting value. Yelich finished 2014 as the 26th ranked outfielder on the ESPN Player Rater. In 2015, he’s being drafted as the 44th ranked outfielder. If Yelich’s 2014 numbers are comparable–that is, even if he doesn’t improve–you’re gaining nearly 20 spots of outfield positional value. So let’s take a look at his 2014 season. The one number stat that pops off the page as possibly unsustainable is his .356 BABIP. But a closer look reveals that Yelich’s career BABIP is .363, a touch higher than 2014. The one caveat is that this sample size is just 206 games. To see if he can maintain his above-average BABIP, it’s important to look at the type of contact Yelich makes. In the prototypical high BABIP player you see a lot of line drives, a solid amount of ground balls, not many fly balls, and speed. In 2014, Yelich finished with a 21.2% LD%, definitely ranking him above average, and a 61.0% GB%, which ranked him 4th in the league. Finally, 72 qualified batters finished 2014 with a FB% of over double Yelich’s 17.85 FB%. Thus, it seems reasonable to expect Yelich’s 2014 BABIP to repeat in 2015. In addition to his other statistics, which are at the very least sustainable, you are already getting great value by drafting Yelich. However, I don’t think Yelich will merely sustain his 2014. And here is why…

In 2015, Yelich is entering his age-23 season, which is reason enough to suggest he could improve due to increased strength and a better feel for the game. More concretely, let’s look at his plate discipline. From 2013 to 2014, his BB/K ratio improved.  Although the improvement was not in itself significant, the main trend is clear:  Yelich started swinging less, allowing him to see the ball more effectively and increase his Contact% notably. As hitters age, their plate discipline tends to progress, and that seems to be the case for Christian Yelich. However, if we look back to my prediction, you see I’m calling for at least 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. The steals should come easy. After all, Yelich stole 21 bases last year, and should continue to get on base. But the homer projection is not as clear, as Yelich hasn’t hit 15 home runs in his entire career. If you look at his 2014 HR/FB%, you see it was a mere 11.5%. This would seem to indicate Yelich had little power on his flyballs, but this is not the case. Yelich’s average flyball distance from 2014 puts him just behind Adam Dunn and in front of Anthony Rizzo. Dunn and Rizzo posted HR/FB% of 18.6% and 18.8% respectively. So if Yelich posts a similar HR/FB%, let’s say 17.9%, that would yield 14 home runs. It is very reasonable to expect this increase in HR/FB%, which would lead to 15 home runs being a very reachable milestone for Yelich in 2015.

As we have seen, in an identical environment to last year, a 15/15 season seems like a reachable mark for 2015. But Yelich’s environment this year is far from identical to 2014,  the primary difference being that he is now penciled in as the number two hitter for the Marlins, right behind newly acquired Dee Gordon. Gordon on the basepaths ahead of Yelich means one thing–fastballs, fastballs, and more fastballs, as pitchers try to prevent Gordon from topping his 64-steal 2014 campaign. This is very good news for Yelich, as last year he ranked 10th in all of baseball in hitting fastballs.

Put the pieces together, and I believe 2015 is the year Yelich goes from a mid-round commodity to a power-speed threat whose name will be on many winning fantasy teams.

Jose Quintana is a Top 30 Pitcher

Jose Quintana is not among the 63 starting pitchers who are listed in ESPN’s top 250 rankings for 2015. The fact that Quintana finished 2014 as the 57th ranked starting pitcher means that if you draft Quintana in 2015, you’re already doing yourself a favor. However, Quintana can be a lot more than a back of the rotation arm for your team this year. He’s been building his case ever since being promoted in 2012.

From a fantasy perspective, if you were to pick a set of numbers you  want to see improve over time for a starting pitcher, you should choose K/9, BB/9, ERA, and FIP.  Examining these stats for Quintana shows his career is definitely headed in a positive direction. From 2012 to 2013, his K/9 jumped from 5.35, to 7.38, and the jumped again in 2014 to 8.00. As his strikeout rate increased, his walks also decreased. This caused his K/BB ratio to jump from a below average 1.93 in 2012, to a robust 3.42 in 2014. Additionally, as Quintana’s ERA dropped from 3.76, to 3.51, and then to 3.32 from 2012-2014; his FIP dropped from 4.32, to 3.82, and then all the way down to 2.81 in 2014. With these statistical trends, there is solid evidence that Quintana will continue to progress in 2015.

Let’s put these numbers in context. Quintana’s FIP from 2014 ranked 10th in the league, right alongside pitchers like Jon Lester and Max Scherzer. His current ADP has him being ranked alongside Francisco Liriano and Tanner Roark. Clearly there is a disconnect here. I am not saying take Quintana in the early rounds that see Lester and Scherzer fly off the board; I am saying that you absolutely should grab Quintana long before Liriano and Roark. What we have in Quintana, as evidenced by his career statistics, is a pitcher who keeps making strides in the right direction, and is on the brink of truly breaking out–if his 2.81 FIP from 2014 doesn’t already qualify as a breakout.

The one area that held Quintana’s value down in past years is wins. To be more specific, Quintana has never logged double-digit wins in his career. This has largely been a result of the anemic offenses the White Sox have put together. However, that is not the case this year. With the acquisitions of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche, the White Sox have strengthened their lineup, and should be able to provide solid run support for Quintana in 2015.

In conclusion, when you look at Quintana’s career as a whole, you see a 26-year-old pitcher brimming with potential, one that is an excellent late-round option in any fantasy league format.

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Bobby Jacowleff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bobby, check out his archive.