Will 2015 be the year for Homer Bailey?
We are now one week closer to Spring Training. That means two more bold predictions. This week we feature a potential comeback pitcher, Homer Bailey, and breakout hitter, A.J. Pollock.
Homer Bailey Rebounds as a Top 25 Pitcher
After a promising season in 2013, many had Homer Bailey pegged as a breakout candidate for 2014 as he headed into his age-28 season. However, it seemed as though everything went wrong. Injuries and ineffectiveness held Bailey to 145.2 innings pitched, while his ERA and BB/9 both increased, and his K/9 fell. Despite his shortcomings in 2014, I expect Bailey’s 2015 season to be a special one, with him finally breaking through into the elite rank of pitchers.
When you look a little closer at 2014, it wasn’t a complete train wreck. For April and May, Bailey posted ERAs of 6.15 and 4.26 respectively. These blemishes can perhaps be attributed to the absurd 29.2% HR/FB% that Bailey fell victim to in April, and his 3.08 BB/9 in May. But Bailey turned his season around. In June, July, and August, he posted ERAs of 3.35, 2.67, and then 0.64 respectively.
So after a terrible start, Bailey’s ERA was clearly trending in the right direction. What about his strikeout and walk rates? Let’s begin by looking at Bailey’s K/9. After improving each year from 2011 to 2013, Bailey took a step back in 2014. To find out if the drop from 8.57 K/9 in 2013 to 7.66 K/9 in 2014 was a fluke or a problem, it’s necessary to drill down. A look under the hood reveals that Bailey’s SwStr% (percentage of pitches a pitcher throws that a batter swings at and misses) actually increased in 2014 to 11.0% from 10.7% in 2013. Every year since 2008, Bailey’s SwStr% has actually improved, and the 11.0% mark from 2014 would rank him 13th in the league, right behind Madison Bumgarner. In 2013, Bumgarner posted a 9.07 K/9, and if you go up one more spot to Stephen Stasburg’s 11.2% SwStr%, you see a K/9 of 10.13. Looking at these stats, it is evident that Bailey’s strikeout rate in 2014 was much lower than what you would expect to see. If he continues to draw swings and misses at this rate, we should expect his K/9 to rise.
Now to Bailey’s walk rate. After maintaining a BB% between 5.9% and 6.4% through 2011-2013, Bailey’s BB% ballooned up to 7.5% in 2014. Once again, let’s drill down. Bailey’s first pitch strike percentage of 61.9% was the lowest of his career since 2009. Bailey dropped below the top 50 in the league for first pitch strike percent. As a result of this, the percentage of pitches that batters swung at also dipped to the lowest rate of his career since 2009. These two factors were likely significant contributors to Bailey’s increased walks in 2014.
In order for Bailey to rebound in 2015, the first thing that he’ll need to improve is throwing the ball in the strike zone. It sounds elementary, but when you fall behind hitters as often as Bailey did in 2014, it results in them swinging less and less, driving walk rates up and strikeout rates down. Ultimately these issues will lead to an increased ERA. That is exactly what we saw in 2014 with Homer Bailey. If Bailey starts getting ahead in counts in 2015, there isn’t a lot of reason to suggest that the breakout season people were hoping for in 2014 can become a reality in 2015.
A.J. Pollock is a Top 15 Outfielder
In the past few years, it seems as though Pollock has had an easier time performing at a high level than he has had staying healthy. After playing 31 MLB games during his rookie season of 2012, Pollock managed 137 games in 2013, and just 75 games in 2014. This injury history may have prevented people from noticing just how talented Pollock actually is. Entering his 27-year-old season, I can see Pollock finally putting his play on the field and his health together, and doing something special for his fantasy owners.
In order to gauge Pollock’s true abilities, let’s look at his 2013 and 2014 seasons combined. He played 212 games during these two years, so we’ll prorate his stats to 162 games, yielding a season of 12 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a .281 batting average. These numbers are surprisingly impressive for someone who is ranked outside of the top 15 rounds going into 2015.
There are reasons to think Pollock could get even better. For starters, he is entering his age 27 season, an age where power is said to reach its peak. What’s more, he is still taking half of his at bats in homer-friendly Chase Field. Another reason to project an increase in Pollock’s home runs is his low 7.7% HR/FB%. In 2014, Pollock’s average fly ball distance was 278.4 feet. Alex Gordon’s was 278.5 feet, so he serves as a good benchmark. Gordon had an 11.3% HR/FB% and blasted 19 home runs–in a much less hitter-friendly park. Pollock’s average fly ball distance and friendly home park are why you can expect an increase in Pollock’s homer output in 2015. After all, if you prorate Pollock’s 75 games in 2014, you would see he was on pace to hit 15 home runs. As Pollock continues to improve, a 20-homer season is certainly not out of the question for him in 2015.
Now let’s look at the other half of the power/speed combo that A.J. Pollock possesses, the combo which makes him such a prime fantasy target in 2015. As I mentioned earlier, Pollock’s 2013/2014 prorated together yield a full season of 20 steals. What’s more, if you look at just 2014 for Pollock, that season prorates to 30 steals. Furthermore, this stolen base output isn’t being pulled out of thin air. Pollock stole 36 bases in just 131 games in 2011 in the minors. So the speed is definitely there, it’s just a matter of when it will transfer to the MLB level, and 2015 could be the year.
Targeting power/speed guys late in drafts is exactly how you could have wound up landing Carlos Gomez in 2013 and Michael Brantley last year. This is exactly what I am advising you do here with A.J. Pollock in 2015. All the abilities are there, so with good health and perhaps a stroke of luck, we could see Pollock going 20/20 with an impressive batting average to top it all off.
Bold Predictions: Jose Abreu, Michael Wacha
Bold Predictions: Matt Cain, Jason Heyward
Bobby Jacowleff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bobby, check out his archive.
