Jon Collins of Fantasy Sports LR shares his preview of the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays.
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The Toronto Blue Jays have never struggled to score runs, and 2015 is shaping up to be much like years past. The team scored 723 runs in 2014, good for 5th most in the majors, and they are perennially in the top half of the league in that category. As such, you’re going to want to own all of the significant contributors in their lineup this season and you’ll want to consider a number of the role players as well. On the flip side, their residency in the AL East with home games at one of the most hitter friendly ball parks in the bigs suggests that this isn’t a rotation you’ll want to be heavily invested in. With that said, it isn’t as simple as saying ‘the Jays are going to score a bunch of runs, and give up their share as well’ as there are fantasy contributors (and liabilities) in both the lineup and rotation.
Projected Lineup
- Jose Reyes, SS
- Russell Martin, C
- Jose Bautista, RF
- Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH
- Josh Donaldson, 3B
- Justin Smoak, DH/1B
- Michael Saunders, LF
- Ryan Goins, 2B
- Dalton Pompey, CF
Notes: It could be argued that the Blue Jays have one of the best top 5s in all of baseball. They’ve lost Melky Cabrera and his .301 average (with a combined 154 runs and RBI), but have added Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin who will certainly produce their own share of runs. With that said, as strong as the first five hitters look on paper, the final four might be among the league’s worst. Two of the players (Smoak, Goins) hit .202 or worse last year while the presumed number nine hitter has 39 career at bats (with nine hits) to his name. Seattle’s castoffs could each have something to offer this year, but you’re asking for a lot of progression out of Smoak to represent a solid No. 6 hitter. As such, the run scoring potential of Encarnacion and Donaldson may not be as high as you’d think this year.
Projected Rotation
Projected Closer: Brett Cecil
Notes: The addition of Russell Martin in free agency was thought of as one to provide an offensive boost, but don’t negate the impact of a Catcher who threw out 39% of baserunners and helped Pittsburgh’s staff to a 3.47 ERA while behind the plate last season. Further, with Ryan Goins‘ glove at 2B on a presumed regular basis and Josh Donaldson’s presence at 3B, the team adds a solid defensive infield to Martin behind the plate. Both factors that will help the team’s pitching in 2015. Of course, Toronto was still 22nd in the league in staff ERA last season (4.00) and plays in the bandbox stadium that is the Rogers Centre (top 10 park factors for runs, top 3 for home runs in 2013). As part of one of the highest scoring divisions in baseball, you’re not going to count on the staff as a whole for solid ratios. What you’ve got here are a couple of solid inning eating veterans in Dickey and Buehrle who’ll help keep your ratios in check and a number of young arms of interest whose stadium may keep them from being true value plays.
Blue Chip Studs
Jose Bautista, RF
Bautista managed to stay healthy through the 2014 campaign and put together a strong rebound season after back-to-back seasons with 44 or more games missed. His 35 homeruns and 101/103 runs/RBI respectively were among the best lines at his position. They aren’t much above his 162 game pace over the last two years either, it was simply missed games that hurt Bautista’s counting stats. His average, meanwhile, was bolstered by a .28% increase in BABIP and is perhaps due for a bit of regression entering the season at his age (34). All told, Bautista will benefit from exceptional lineup protection yet again and should post solid three category numbers even if his numbers come down a bit.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH
One of the men charged with that protection is Edwin Encarnacion. He himself missed some time last year, but continued his impressive per game production with 34 bombs in 128 games, giving him 112 over the last three seasons. He missed his third straight year with 100+ RBI by two, despite missing 34 ball games. The power numbers have been buoyed by a sustained HR/FB ratio that has been over 17.6% for those three years and should stay high. In the meat of a high scoring order, Encarnacion has shown no signs of slowing down and should be among the first players taken at his position.
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Donaldson arrives from Oakland and is presumed to hit fifth behind the above noted blue chippers. With a .278 BABIP, matching his 2012 mark after a bump to .333 in 2013, Donaldson hit just .255 after a .301 campaign which is probably a more reasonable projection for the hard swinging (18.5% career K rate) 3B. Accepting a .250 average though, shouldn’t mean that owners will be disappointed in other categories. The 29-year-old trades one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the American League for the hitter friendly confines of the Rogers Centre and should see the presumed increase in production as a result. Donaldson scored 40 runs, hit 11 homers and produced 45 RBI at home last season in 78 games while tallying 53/18/53 on the road in 80 contests. Do you think he’s happy about a change in venue?
Bounce Back Candidate
Justin Smoak, 1B/DH
Once a top prospect, Smoak has struggled consistently throughout his big league career, having never eclipsed a .238 batting average. He certainly has the power potential to fare well in Toronto and will hit behind – as mentioned – one of the best top 5s in all of baseball. Be it through the production of the men in front of him, or the opponent’s willingness to trade a Donaldson at bat for a chance at Smoak, he’ll see plenty of ABs with men on base. In great likelihood, you’re looking at a two-category producer, but the potential is there for usable numbers in homers and RBI. Smoak’s K rate was up, his BABIP was down and he barely walked at all (8.5%) last season. All numbers were well below his meager career benchmarks. As such, he’s likely due for a bump in the positive direction as it is, and the change of ball parks should be good news both in terms of production and psyche. Smoak warrants a late round selection.
Sleepers
Marcus Stroman, SP
To the extent that you can call a 23-year-old can’t miss prospect coming off an 11 win debut a sleeper, Stroman is it. Owners looking at his cumulative numbers won’t be impressed, but those with a keen eye will know that Stroman started in the bullpen last season and struggled mightily before finding his groove at the big league level in his natural starter’s role. He went 10-6 with a 3.29 record in 20 starts last year, with 103 Ks in 120.1 innings including six starts in which he allowed no earned runs. Currently drafted in the 13th round, Stroman should turn a profit if he does nothing but match last year’s numbers over additional innings.
Michael Saunders, LF
Saunders strikes out far too much (22.4% in 2013) to be an appealing option and he’s probably due for a regression in BABIP (.327 last year, .37 points above his career average), but like his fellow Seattle transfer Justin Smoak, he’ll enjoy the new ball park and a power laden lineup. His 78 game numbers could prove useful over a full season and Saunders is projected to start every day in LF for Toronto.
Bust Alert
Russell Martin, C
Toronto successfully won a bidding war for Martin this offseason and earned themselves some Canadian content to replace Brett Lawrie. Beyond that, they may have simply bought a Catcher in line for a regression – on offense at least. Moving to the AL will likely help Martin’s counting stats, as he’ll find his way into the lineup as a DH from time to time as opposed to taking days off (111 GP in 2014), but he’s also coming off a nine year career high BABIP of .336 while sustaining his third straight year with a drop in home runs. Martin will do a fine job of managing the pitching staff, but owners buying in expecting a .290 batting average will be disappointed, after all, the veteran catcher hasn’t bested .250 since 2008.
Late Round Flier
Aaron Sanchez, SP
Currently projected as the team’s fifth starter, Sanchez posted a solid debut season coming out of the pen. With a 1.04 ERA, .70 WHIP and 27 Ks in 33 innings, Sanchez seemed prepared to pitch in the bigs, even if his numbers were buoyed by pitching in late game situations. During his MLB cameo, Sanchez’s heater averaged 97 MPH and his stuff has long been touted as big league ready. Are his minor league walks a bit too high? Absolutely. But in the late stages of the draft , particularly for those picking early, I’m willing to take a shot. Best case scenario: he starts and strikes out a bunch of guys in limited innings before getting shut down. Happy alternative: He opens the season as the closer with Casey Janssen departing. Worst case: He costs you a Dexter Fowler range pick. Grab Sanchez late and watch things develop early this year.
Prospect Watch
Daniel Norris, SP
Norris progressed through the system at a rapid pace in 2014, drawing 13 starts at HiA Dunedin (and posting a 6-0 record with a 1.22 ERA) before moving along into AA, AAA and eventually making a 6.2 inning cameo in Toronto in September. Given that rapid progression and limited experience, the soon to be 22-year-old is all but assured to start the season in the Minor Leagues. With 163 strikeouts across 124.2 MiLB innings last season, the left handed fireballer (hitting the gun at 96 MPH) is sure to see some work with the big club and could be a boost for owners looking for Ks as the season progresses.
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Jon Collins is the lead football and baseball writer for Fantasy Sports Locker Room and is part of the ECR for MLB and NFL on FantasyPros.
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