Russell Wilson led fantasy squads through the air and on the ground this season
Think about your job for a second. Yes, I know that you think about/play fantasy football largely to get out of whatever vocation that you’ve been called to, but bear with me for just a bit. Imagine you’re amazing at your job, think top 1% in the world here, but even among this peer group, you’re the top 1% of this 1%. This earns you an invitation to an elite showcase of your peers. Straight up Top-Gun level stuff. Sounds pretty neat, right?
Well, not so much. Instead of indulging you’re inner Maverick (because really who wants to be Goose?), you get to do a ‘nerf’d’ down version of this job, for zero pay, and did I mention that you are still at a pretty decent risk to get hurt?
However, you’re of no obligation to take this invite, you can pass it along, with no financial ramifications. In fact, you’re employer would probably prefer that you pass the buck along to a less-heralded underling, because they’ll need you next year.
These are the conditions surrounding the Pro Bowl, the only game where it’s more enjoyable NOT to play.
Seeing as the NFL turned down my poorly written proposal to turn the whole event into a combination Trivia Crack/karaoke/random fan plays QB contest, it looks like they’ll actually be playing football this year, again. Knowing that, I propose it’s time to create a new, improved NFL All-Star award, the FantasyPros All-Value All-Pro.
While any fool (maybe not FantasyPros correspondents Chad Satterfield or Mike Wright, but I still have hope for them) can run down a list of league’s highest scorers and make All-Pro teams, if fantasy football is truly a “benign, silly, facsimile of investing” as Michael Lewis calls it, the key to being the best is knowing where the market is inefficient and striking with extreme prejudice.
This team is comprised of players who were early-, mid- and late-round picks. In some cases, not even picked (or even on preseason cheat sheets) at all. They’ve overcome concerns about role, size, age, and health to get to the point where they not only exceeded their pre-draft expectations, they’ve shattered them and reached a whole new level of their craft. Also due to the fact that those selected to this team are by under no obligation to travel or work, there’s no cost to accept! Without further adieu, here is your 2014 FantasyPros All-Value All-Pro Team!
Quarterback
The QB who made you feel like ‘Buddy the elf‘ all year long was….
Full of enthusiasm, passion and pep (the more I think about it, maybe Wilson is one of Buddy’s long lost cousins…), the third-year QB shattered his preseason QB2 expectations, and finished the year as fantasy football’s third-ranked passer in standard formats (despite having the 31st most productive WRs and 18th most productive TEs from a fantasy perspective). Wilson deserves respect for keeping his passing peripherals constant with his career averages (62.8% completions, 7.6 yards Y/A and a career high of 215.7 yards per game), but what separated him from the pack was his rushing ability, as Wilson finished the year with 849 yards on the ground, the sixth-highest single-season total ever put forth by a quarterback. ‘DangerRuss’ proved to be more than just a game manager, as when he needed to be dynamic, he answered the bell. He posted the first ever 300-plus passing yard and 100-plus rush yard performance in a narrow Week 6 loss to the Rams. And just to add a cherry on top of an otherwise impressive year, Wilson erupted for 339 yards passing, 88 yards rushing and three touchdowns when it counted most in Week 16. There were a few lucky breaks during the year, as he miraculously didn’t lose a single fumble, despite fumbling nine times. Those with the foresight (warning, humble-brag alert) to draft Wilson were standing tall in 2014.
ALSO CONSIDERED
Ben Roethlisberger threw for more touchdown’s in three weeks than the New York Jets did in weeks one through 16, let that sink in for awhile Jets fans. Drafted on average at pick 117, Big Ben was a revelation during the mid-season bye weeks of top QBs, and an absolutely monster in 2QB formats…Ryan Tannehill had a very quiet breakout in 2014, finishing as the ninth highest scoring QB far exceeding the modest expectations that came along with his ADP of 150. Tannehill capped off a strong year with a game-changing performance Week 16 and his peripherals (falling interceptions per attempt, rising yards per attempt and QBR), are pointing to a player on the rise…Before his un-watchably bad Week 16, Andrew Luck was in strong contention for QB of the year. Luck had an absolutely dominating 2014, finishing as the top QB, offering remarkable consistency, only to finish outside of the top 12 in his position on three occasions.
Running Back
The best bargain backs of 2014 were…
Le’Veon Bell, Justin Forsett and C.J. Anderson
We all know the story with Le’Veon Bell at this point, slimmed down back finds his groove and boogies through defenses at a record clip. But something that may have been forgotten over one too many ‘RoethlisBurgers’ is the fact that Bell was drafted on average, at pick 21, two picks after Doug Martin and three picks after Giovanni Bernard.
Giovanni Bernard and Doug Martin combined for 189.5 points on the year.
The scary thing about Bell’s 2014 campaign is that if anything, he was actually unlucky, suffering through a nine-week stretch where he did’t record a rushing touchdown. He only recorded eight on the season, which tied him for eighth in the NFL. His unique ability to catch passes out of the backfield (83 receptions on the year put him second in the league behind Matt Forte and 17 catches ahead of the third place finisher, Fred Jackson) and gash defenses to the tune of 4.7 yards per carry made Bell one of, if not the best value pick of 2015.
In sharp contrast to Bell, Justin Forsett wasn’t on anybody’s draft board when draft time rolled around and was last fantasy relevant in 2010 (fun fact: Forsett was the back that was replaced by Marshawn Lynch, who was his former college backfield-mate in Seattle). The suspension of Ray Rice allowed Forsett to emerge from fantasy-limbo and into the limelight with an impressive week one, but he faded into the background of what was supposed to be a committee backfield in weeks two and three, prompting owners in shallow leagues to consider dropping the former ‘Week 1’ waiver darling. Those who did kick themselves while missing out on one of the most under-appreciated streaks of RB production in recent memory. Starting in Week 4 and ending in Week 15, Forsett put up ten consecutive games of nine points or more, an astonishing feat for any player. A downright inconceivable one for a back with zero fanfare during the pre-season. While he has broken down a bit in weeks 14 and 15, Forsett ended the year as the 8th highest scoring RB. In a year where RB production was scarce and volatile, Forsett provided low-end RB1 production throughout the season, at little to no cost.
To use a borrowed sports metaphor, if Justin Forsett was the waiver wire darling RB starter, C.J. Anderson was the lights out closer. In danger of not making the Broncos final 53 man roster at the end of training camp, Anderson simmered on a subterranean level for the Broncos as they lost Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball again. He then gushed through to the surface in Week 10 against Oakland. From that point on, Anderson was one of, if not the most impressive backs in the NFL, posting only one total (where he finished with a perfectly acceptable RB16 finish) outside of the top 12 from weeks 10-to-16. During that six-week stretch, Anderson was fantasy football’s second highest scoring back in both standard and PPR formats. With Ferrari grade production at a pinto price point, Anderson was that high-octane boost that your team needed to sprint to the finish.
ALSO CONSIDERED
‘Glorified Guard’ and living testament to the fact that opportunity is the leading predictor of fantasy production, Matt Asiata shockingly finished the year as fantasy football’s 16th highest scoring RB, despite averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Asiata was dominant during the fantasy playoffs and was 2014’s leading touchdown vulture…Those of you with short attention spans may have already forgotten that through the first nine weeks of the season, Ahmad Bradshaw was fantasy’s sixth most productive RB and looked to be the steal of the draft before being lost to injury…Another back that nearly snagged a top spot was rookie Jeremy Hill, who ended the year as the ninth most productive RB, despite an average draft position of 131. In a normal year, Hill definitely makes this list and his 57% success rate makes him a very interesting prospect going forward. Priority draft-choices DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster deserve mention on this list, as Murray was on a record pace to start the season and Foster was fantasy football’s most productive back on a per-game basis.
Wide Receiver
The biggest WR windfall’s of 2014 were….
Jeremy Maclin, Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans and Emmanuel Sanders
Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin entered the season as either a player you loved or hated, there wasn’t much middle ground. Maclin had previously been a steady if unspectacular WR2 for fantasy purposes and was drafted as such, on average he was the 26th WR off the board, 11 picks behind Wes Welker. Right off the bat, Maclin proved that he was healed from his 2013 torn ACL. He was ready to be the star of the Chip Kelly fantasy point party. Maclin finished with 10-plus points in seven of his first ten games and all-though he cooled near the finish (partially attributable to his starting QB, Nick Foles, going down with an injury), his season was still good enough to land him as the seventh highest scoring WR in fantasy football. In fact, he more than outpaced DeSean Jackson‘s 2013 season from a fantasy perspective, finishing 2014 with 186.9 fantasy points, compared to Jackson’s 182 from 2013. His Week 8 and Week 9 performances were things of beauty. He set himself up for a nice payday and a ADP increase heading into 2015.
What do hurricanes, hailstorms, tornadoes and thunderstorms all have in common with Odell Beckham Jr?
They’re all unstoppable destructive forces of nature and if you see them coming, its time to batten down the hatches and head to the basement, because its gonna be a bumpy ride.
If you somehow drafted Beckham (who was on average, drafted behind titans of the fantasy field such as Dexter McCluster and James Jones), despite him missing the entire preseason with a hamstring injury suffered on the first day of camp, held onto him despite missing the first four weeks of the season with said hamstring injury, and kept the faith through his initially unimpressive 5-44-1 and 2-28-0 debut and followup outings, congratulations! You are either a all-powerful computer sent from the future to destroy the human race or a wizard. Really, I highly doubt you were born of human-kind. Just remember, I for one welcome you as our new overlord and I really don’t want to play in a fantasy league with you anytime soon.
All joking aside, after the Giants Week 9 bye Beckham morphed from a mild-mannered rookie WR into a human derecho, posting nine straight outings with at least six catches and 90 yards. To top it off, his city-flattening playoff performance (WK14 11-130-1, WK15 12-143-3, WK16 8-148-2 and for good measure a 12-185-1 WK17) in the playoffs either gives you chills of fear or involuntary fist-pumping bouts of joy, depending on which Beckham or non-Beckham side you were on. To put it in context, Beckham’s 16.3 points per game, which were far and away the most from a WR, would’ve made him the fifth highest scoring RB per-game, ahead of high first round picks Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy. Heck, on a points-per-game basis Beckham Jr was only outscored by 16 quarterback. Having Odell Beckham on your team was roughly the equivalent of playing 2QB football, while the rest of your league only played one. I’ll wrap this article up before it becomes 300 pages of platitudes, but Odell Beckham or ‘Odell Football Jr’ to some, was by far one the most interesting stories in Fantasy Football this year.
Now feel free to uncork a cultured beverage appropriate to your age range that pairs well with venison and bitter greens. Put on some classical music and watch a budding virtuoso do what he does best, flambe defensive backs.
With the final choice I am reminded of a conversation I had with a friend of mine about the Mara sisters. After a very spirited back and forth, one great truth emerged when faced with two exceptionally positive outcomes. Instead of choosing one, why not go for both. I feel it’s a similar scenario with Evans and Sanders, two very different WRs who posted tremendous stat-lines.
One of the turning points of your fantasy season came sometime around rounds seven or eight in redraft leagues, as Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin were all most likely on the board and would be off the board by the end of round eight. While this four-way fork in the road was filled with mostly positive outcomes, as Benjamin, Watkins and Cooks all had their moments, the most profitable choice was to ride with Mike Evans. However this ride wasn’t all sunshine and ice-cream, as Evans was limited to under 60 yards through the first three weeks, and suffered a groin injury during his micro-breakout during Week 4. There was actually a time in which Evans made ESPN’s 25 most dropped players, but if you held on, you were treated to a meteoric rise to WR1 status, as Evans posted the seventh most points from a WR from Week 6-to-16 and finished the year as the 12th ranked wide out on the year. I forecast big things in the future for Evans and there is a near zero chance he’ll never be drafted during rounds seven or eight ever again.
Brought in to replace the departed Eric Decker and drafted as a low-end WR2 (right behind Michael Floyd…ouch), Sanders played up to Decker’s 2013 standard and more, posting 193.5 fantasy points through 16 weeks. That was good enough for the fifth highest total amongst WRs during that span. While Sanders had a spectacular Week 8, his huge 2014 totals were the product of many weeks of consistent production, as he only dipped below 50 yards receiving in two games (Weeks 6 and 7), and in Week 7 he bailed fantasy managers out with a day-saving touchdown. In addition to his stupendous numbers, Sanders deserves a spot on this team strictly for his ability to bounce back from a viscous hit with arguably the tweet of the year.
ALSO CONSIDERED
Mohamed Sanu went from being the FantasyPros consensus 71st ranked WR during the preseason to having a brief flirtation with WR1 numbers. From weeks two-through-nine, Sanu averaged 13.4 points per game and despite cooling off later in the season, still finished with the 27th most fantasy points during weeks 1-16…DeAndre Hopkins was the 44th WR off the board during draft season, but rode a roller-coaster season all the way to the 13th highest point total amongst wide-outs, with improved QB play in Houston, the sky is the limit for him…..Kelvin Benjamin went from being thought of as raw in a bad way (bad enough to be the 36th WR off boards during drafts), to being thought of as raw in a good way (15th highest scoring WR weeks 1-16). In his dominant debut season, much like Evans, onwards and upwards from here….T.Y. Hilton somehow fell behind all-bust team selection Wes Welker during drafts (Hilton was the 23rd WR selected on average). His expanded role in the Indy passing attack produced explosive results, earning the former FIU Panther the 10th most WR fantasy points on the year, that in addition to his already international acclaim….While his ADP (7th WR drafted on average) was simply too high to put him on the all-value team, that shouldn’t take away from Antonio Brown‘s tremendous season. Finishing as the king of the hill in terms of fantasy WR scoring, Brown was a ‘diminutive dynamo‘ in a game where big wide-outs usually win the day. According to FFtoday.com, Brown and Le’Veon Bell are the first RB/WR teammates to finish in the top 2 in fantasy scoring since Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison accomplished the feat in 2000….While Marquess Wilson did a fine job filling in for and injured Brandon Marshall, his mention on this years team is more due to the amazing circumstances around his first career touchdown. Coincidentally this put noted daily fantasy player Drew Dinkmeyer in first place for good in the Draft Kings Week 15 Millionaire Maker contest.
Tight End
And finally, the TE who spiked his way into our hearts in 2014 was of course…
The one-man fiesta known to the world as Rob Gronkowski is known for pulling some improbable feats out of thin air, but I would never again expect to see anyone drafted as the third TE or lower in fantasy drafts have the a season that is within the top three in the 21st century. But that’s exactly what the ‘power-spiking,’ once-in-a-generation talent out of New England pulled off this year. Gronk put up a campaign that trailed only his 2011 and Jimmy Graham‘s 2013 season in points scored by a tight end since 2000. While the options drafted in front of him didn’t exactly bust, Gronk so thoroughly surpassed expectations that it may take him some time to regain his pre-injury form, that he delivered the best value at the position, even with a relatively high ADP of pick 28 (which was three picks after Zac Stacy). And now some Gronk-Facts on his smashing 2014…
*Rob Gronkowski‘s 184.4 fantasy points would have made him the eighth-highest scoring WR, and the ninth-highest scoring RB.
*While his total number of points scored on the season was astounding, the consistency in which he put up those points was his true strength. In a highly volatile year for the position, Gronk only finished with one game were he had fewer than six standard points (Week 3, a week where he posted four receptions, possibly salvaging the day in PPR formats). Coby Fleener and Jason Witten (eighth and 10th most TE points) had eight sub six point games, while Larry Donnell and Zach Ertz (12th and 14th most TE points) had 11 weeks of sub-six point production. Heck, even Jimmy Graham had six weeks of below-replacement level production, seven if you count Week 17. With the replacement-level bar set so low and scoring so unpredictable, Gronk gets an extra bonus for having extraterrestrial levels of consistency.
*Only nine TE’s not including Gronkowski scored at least 92 points on the year, meaning if you had to rely on low-end, stream-grade options throughout the year, there is a good chance that Gronkowski doubled your team’s per game TE output.
*If you missed out on Gronk, but were able to snag the next highest drafted TE Vernon Davis, you my friend, have made a huge mistake. It was quite possibly the world’s lamest TE party for you, Davis drafter, while those who went to the super-happening Gronk bash saw over 400% more production out of Gronkowski.
*If that wasn’t enough, Gronkowski was also the best TE during the fantasy playoffs, kicking up his production to 13.1 points per game from weeks 14-16.
After a year of good health and one of the best TE season’s ever to boot, there’s a good chance that this prince of New England was driving your team’s party-bus to your fantasy championship.
ALSO CONSIDERED
Delanie Walker on average was drafted behind two players that were well known to be retired in Jermichael Finley and Tony Gonzalez, so any production from him was expected to be a bonus. All Walker did was have an unexpected breakout Week 2 and despite cooling off considerably during the mid-season, finished up the year with the seventh most fantasy points amongst TEs…While I feel bad burying him until the last mention of the article, if not for Rob Gronkowski‘s historic bargain season, Antonio Gates would be a slam-dunk choice. 2014’s second highest scoring TE and also the 2nd most efficient in terms of points per route run, was also considered by some in the industry to be the second best TE on his own team during the draft season. Drafted as the 13th TE by ADP, Gates had a solid Week 1, then went full super-charger against the Seahawks in Week 2. Maybe his team’s super-catchy theme song inspired him onwards, as Gates continued his momentum throughout the year. Gates has posted only five sub-replacement level (six point) games and is showing that he’s not quite ready to give up the San Diego mantle to Ladarius Green quite yet.
Brian Tesch is a former AmeriCorps VISTA and current happy-go-lucky Economics student by day, FantasyPros NFC West Division Leader by later in the day.
You can check out his archive, and if you so choose, follow him on Twitter @TheRealTesch.
