Juan Lagares could be a late-round steal in fantasy baseball drafts this season
The annual Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) Winter Conference kicked off on Jan. 15 at the Bellagio in Las Vegas with the 2015 Experts League Fantasy Baseball Draft. The results revealed some surprises and huge value plays to keep in mind when it’s time for your fantasy draft.
The Experts League is composed of 13 teams, standard 5×5 roto-style scoring, featuring some of the top minds in the fantasy game. This year’s participants were:
- Steve Gardner, USA Today
- Colton and the Wolfman, Sirius XM Fantasy Radio
- Ron Shandler, Baseball HQ
- Charlie Wiegert, CDM Sports
- Anthony Perri, Fantistics
- Greg Ambrosius/Tom Kessenich, Stats, Inc/NFBC
- Lawr Michaels/Todd Zola, MastersBall
- Dr. Roto, Scout Fantasy
- Chris Liss, RotoWire
- Jeff Paur, RT Sports
- Jeff Mans, Fantasy Alarm
- Ray Flowers, Baseball Guys/Sirius XM
- Mike Cardano, RotoExperts
This was an impressive group to say the least. After listening to part of the draft, and then reviewing the complete results online, I found several players being drafted higher than I would have forecast. I also found several players that were drafted lower than expected that could be huge value plays going forward. Some of those players are coming off an injury of some sort, or just a disappointing season, but others are just plain undervalued. Remember, fantasy leagues are not won in the first couple rounds, they’re won in the middle and late rounds, and of course by staying on top of the waiver wire.
Here are five players that could be worth far more than their draft position might otherwise indicate.
1. Juan Lagares, New York Mets, OF (29th round, Mike Cardano) – Cardano selected the Mets starting center fielder with his final pick, and I think he found a gem in the last round of the draft. Is Lagares going to go all ‘Mike Trout‘ on you and your team? Of course not. But to be able to grab a guy in the 29th round who will be just 26 years old when the season begins, and is coming off a season that saw him hit .281 and steal 13 bases, you could do a whole lot worse. The only thing that might become an issue is the rumor that the Mets and Rockies are talking about a trade for Charlie Blackmon, so you’ll obviously need to stay abreast of that situation. Barring a trade, if I’m looking for a fifth outfielder to fill up my team and a player of Lagares talent is still there, count me in.
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, Cleveland Indians, 3B (25th round, Jeff Paur) – Wait a minute, I thought the third base position was bleak and quality minders of the hot corner were hard to find. For Paur to grab Chisenhall in the 25th round is highway robbery in my book. The former first-round draft pick finally started to put it all together last year and posted a solid .280/13/59 in 142 games in his first year as a starter. He also totaled 29 doubles, scored 62 runs and posted a .343 OBP and .770 OPS. Now compare that to Pablo Sandoval, who was selected in the seventh round by Jeff Mans. The Panda went .279/16/73 last year (157 games) with a .324 OBP and .739 OPS. Chisenhall is two years younger and several pounds lighter than Sandoval, and while Sandoval has moved to a hitter’s park in Fenway and has the well-deserved reputation of being a World Series monster, the value that Chisenhall brings in that late of a round can’t be overlooked.
3. Henderson Alvarez, Miami Marlins, RHP (25th round, Steve Gardner) – Alvarez was outstanding last season, earning an All-Star selection before suffering an oblique injury that shut him down. The soon-to-be 25-year-old just signed a one-year, $4 million deal with the Marlins to avoid arbitration. Last year, Alvarez made 30 starts posting a 12-7 mark (including three shutouts) and an impressive 2.65 ERA. He doesn’t blow hitters away, so his K/9 ratio was just 5.3, but he won’t kill your WHIP either as he walked just 33 hitters in 187 innings of work. The Marlins have improved themselves as a team this year offensively, and with the recent re-signing of closer Steve Cishek, Alvarez and the squad can look for another solid campaign in 2015.
4. Angel Pagan, San Francisco Giants, OF (22nd round, Michaels/Zola) – Let’s face it, when Pagan is healthy and playing, he is a major contributor and the Giants are a completely different team. Unfortunately, Pagan has had issues avoiding injury the past couple of years. In 2014, Pagan managed to appear in 96 games for the World Series champs, hitting an even .300 and stealing 16 bags. He’s never going to help you in the power numbers, but he’ll score a ton of runs, steal 20-30 bases and hit .280-.300. If he’s available in your draft come round 22, jump on it.
5. Derek Holland, Texas Rangers, LHP (20th round, Ray Flowers) – Holland missed most of last season due to a freak injury that he suffered when he tripped over his dog walking up the stairs at his home. What folks in your league might forget is that the ‘Dutch Oven’ came back late in the year and was as sharp as he’s ever been. In five starts, pitching for the worst team in baseball, Holland went 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA, and posted a WHIP of 1.05. Additionally, the lefty struck out 25 batters in 37 IP while only walking five. As the No. 2 guy in the Rangers rotation, behind Yu Darvish, expect Holland to return to starting between 27-33 games in 2015. With the Rangers recovering from the ridiculous amount of injuries they incurred last year, they should be much stronger in terms of run support. I see Holland winning 13-16 games with an ERA in the 3.30-3.50 range–not too shabby for a 20th round selection.
These are just five guys that stood out to me as great value plays based on where they were selected by the experts in their draft. Of course, it’s only January and anything can happen between now and Opening Day. But watch this quintet during the spring and you might have yourself a leg up on your competition.
Mitch Cox is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Mitch, check out his archive.
