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Indianapolis at Denver (-7): Against the Spread Picks

Peyton Manning will try and send his old team packing as the favorites in this matchup

Peyton Manning will try and send his old team packing as the favorites in this matchup

In the final game of the Divisional Round, Peyton Manning will take on his old team and it’ll once again be a matchup between Indianapolis’ two favorite QBs. The teams have met twice since Peyton headed to Denver and they’ve split the games, both of which were high scoring affairs. In both games, the final outcome was separated by no more than 7 points which happens to be the spread for this game.

In what will be a difficult game to pick, both teams have had some issues down the stretch. Manning hasn’t been himself and the Colts’ receivers have been banged up as well. The experts have weighed in with their picks against the spread and you can find their commentary on the game below.

Divisional Round Picks: Against the Spread
Baltimore at New England (-7)
Carolina at Seattle (-11)
Dallas at Green Bay (-6)

IND
Indianapolis Colts (+7)
DEN
Denver Broncos (-7)
Pick %
51% 49%
“Again it’s the point spread that concerns me here. I believe the Broncos will pull out the win because they are at home but see Andrew Luck keeping the Colts close.”
Walton Spurlin Fantasy Sharks
“Indy has caught Peyton Manning at the perfect time, in the middle of a slump. Would I be surprised if he all of a sudden found “it” again? No, but in the past few seasons, his arm has faded down the stretch. While I see the Broncos winning this game, 7 points is a bit much with the way Denver has been playing. I feel like this game could end in a 27-24 final. “
Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football
“Indianapolis doesn’t have much to recommend them aside from Andrew Luck, but the one thing you want to have above all else in the playoffs is a star quarterback. Peyton Manning seems to have taken a step back in recent weeks. Denver wins a close one.”
R.J. White Fantasy Football Cafe
“People often misunderstand any criticism of Peyton Manning in the playoffs. It’s not about his suspect win-loss record (11-12). It’s about his performance dipping dramatically in the postseason (QBR 89.2) compared to his regular season production (97.5). Only one team can win, but even in victory Manning often isn’t the reason why his side advances. I bring this up because my take in this game is that Denver’s overall squad pulls out the win, but Andrew Luck’s work keeps the Colts closer than the experts think.”
Ben Standig CSN Washington
“This is another game that I feel will be closer than many expect. There’s so much history here that neither team is just going to roll over.”
The FFGhost Dynasty League Football
“This will be a close one, and whichever quarterback makes a mistake at the end will be on the losing end of this football game. The Broncos have the edge on offense and defense, but the Colts have covered +7 in 13 of 16 games this season, including Week 1 against the Broncos. 38-34 Broncos.”
Josh Collacchi eDraft
“I’m not sure who is going to win this game, but it makes sense to me that Denver lacks the defense to blowout the Colts. Indy is playing really well right now while the Broncos seems to be slipping.”
Matt De Lima FF Toolbox
“Peyton Manning has only thrown 5 TD passes in his past 5 games where he has only averaged 234 yards. Since then, the Bronco’s have relied heavily on the run game in CJ Anderson. The same can’t be said for the Colts as they face one of the best Run Defenses in the NFL. To add to that, it’s obvious that Dan Herron will have his hands full in the run game. It’s very likely we’ll see him succeed more in dump-off or screen pass type plays. Julius Thomas is fully expected to suit up, but his snap count has been below 45% in 2 of his final 3 games this season. It’s not looking like his ankle will be 100% healthy until he actually has time to rest in the offseason. We really think the Colts have a great chance of going into Denver on Sunday night and leaving with a win, but until they can show they’re capable of beating top tier talent, we’re holding off. That said, we don’t think Denver will cover the spread.”
Tozzi Brothers Legion Report
“Indy could win this. Luck played better than Peyton this year (more passing yards, more TDs) and has as many weapons. So even if Denver pulls through, it’ll be tight contest.”
Benjamin Zeidler FantasyFifty
“I’m not convinced that Peyton Manning is even 70% of what he was last year and would not even be surprised by the upset let alone the cover.”
Jeff Collins Fantasy ContrariansJeff Collins's most confident pick for this week
“This is yet another game that I feel the point spread is just too high. My prediction: Broncos 30 Colts 27”
Mike Rigz Gridiron Experts
“This is the one game where I’m taking the dog. I’m a bit surprised I only have one given the spreads, but Andrew Luck and the Colts should keep this close. Peyton Manning slowed at the end of the year, and the Broncos are a heavier run team now. That’s how you beat the Colts too. Because of that, the clock will run down a bit faster, not allowing the Broncos to score drive after drive…that is, unless super Peyton shows back up…”
Jake Ciely RotoExperts
“Broncos 29, Colts 25”
Mike Clay Pro Football Focus
“Is Peyton Manning right? In Denver’s first 12 games, Manning had 1 game where he threw fewer than 2 TD passes. In the last 4 weeks of the season, he threw 3 total TDs and 4 INTs. Luck and the offense are rolling, and if the Colts don’t drop several key passes last week, the Bengals would have gotten crushed worse than they did. Take the points, and sprinkle some dough on the Colts moneyline as well.”
Staff Rankings 2MugsFF
“Manning has slowed over the final five games leaving them vulnerable on the points spread of -7.”
Ross Miles Pro Football Focus
“The Broncos’ offense isn’t playing like the juggernaut we’re used to. They should be able to grind out a win with the running game, but the Colts have enough firepower to keep it close. Good chance of a backdoor cover with a spread this big.”
John Paulsen 4for4.com
“The Broncos haven’t played all that well over the last 1.5 months or so. Peyton Manning hasn’t been his typically surgical self, and the questions about his effectiveness in cold weather still linger. If this one is tight in the second half, can the 38-year-old Manning outduel the much younger Andrew Luck as the sun sets and the temperature drops in the Rocky Mountains? I expect the Colts to hang with the Broncos in this one.”
Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl
“Completing my plus the points sweep this weekend, I think Indy will cause some trouble for Denver. Chris Harris has done a fine job, but Denver’s real strength is their run D. That won’t bother the Colts, who don’t pretend to be interested in running the ball. Look for a Manning turnover and a Luck surge to keep this game close.”
Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR
“More dogs. More dogs! The Colts have the offensive potential to come up with the win against the Broncos. In their first meeting this year they beat themselves. If they can produce offensively and manage to not give up the game on defense, they’ll have a shot. Of course, Denver’s new found ground game could pose a major problem. That said, I think Denver is sliding and could struggle in this one. This is going to be a good game and I expect Indy’s offense to get it done.”
Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland
“The Indianapolis defense is very misleading. On paper, they look like one of the better units in the league, but against good offenses they really struggled. Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh torced them for a combined 124 points in 3 games. I think QB Peyton Manning will benefit greatly from a bye week and Denver was (8-0) at home this season. Look for the Broncos to play well and cover the spread at home this week. “
Derek Lofland FFManiaxDerek Lofland 's most confident pick for this week
“Peyton Manning has not been putting up “Peyton Manning” numbers lately, but you can attribute that to an improved run game with C.J. Anderson. That is exactly what is going to propel the Broncos to cover since the Colts allow the 10th most rushing yards per attempt and rushing touchdowns this season. If the Colts do decide to focus on the run game, Peyton will come alive. “
Joe Bond Fantasy Six PackJoe Bond's most confident pick for this week
“The injuries on the O-Line and lack of a real running game are going to catch up to Indy this week. “
Dennis Esser Coach Esser
“The Broncos were also undefeated at home this year, the Colts offensive line has been shaky, especially of late, and I expect the Denver defense to make more stops than the Indy defense. C.J. Anderson will play a big role in the Broncos’ 27-17 win.”
Zach Greubel Gridiron ExpertsZach Greubel's most confident pick for this week
“Let’s remember these teams’ Week 1 showdown wasn’t anywhere near as close as the box score looks. The Broncos dominated that game. Luck and the Colts have been destroyed on the road in the playoffs in their first two tries. Hard to foresee a different result here especially with no run game to speak of.”
Sean Morris Bruno Boys
“Mild temperatures and little wind are in Denver’s Sunday forecast, so we probably don’t need to worry about weather issues with Peyton. The Broncos are a complete team, and should handle the overrated Colts.”
John Halpin Fox Sports
“Indianapolis will not be able to run against this Denver defense. The Colts running backs will have less then 50 yards this week. Denver finally has a feared running game to go along with one of the best QB’s of all time. Peyton Manning’s arm has definitely been noodle like at time this year, but I think he has a little left in the tank this week. “
Sean Beazley EDSFootball
“In 4 of the last 5 games, Peyton Manning has had a QB rating of 85.3 or lower where he has a 5:6 TD/int ratio. That’s not to say that he won’t have a great game but we’ve definitely seen a different Peyton over that time. On the flip side, Andrew Luck has struggled through December with a 71.1 QB rating so both QBs have taken several steps back in their performances late in the year. I do not have a solid grasp of this game at all but I’m going to lean to Denver -7 since they have more ways to win than does Indy (through the air only). “
Tom Poisal Top Tier Football
“When Indy has faced a high-end passing game in the 2014 regular-season, they are 0-5 with losses to DEN, PHI, PIT, NE, DAL…and the margin of loss in those games was even greater on the road (lost by an average of 19.7 PPG to DEN-PIT-DAL). Indy doesn’t have the defense to hang with Denver (even in the cold). If it gets into a battle of run games…you have to like Denver there too.”
R.C. Fischer Fantasy Football MetricsR.C. Fischer's most confident pick for this week
“So I go backwards here…I think Denver blows Indy out…rested and too many weapons. Indy has to run the ball but the Broncos do stop the run well.”
Ken Zalis PressboxKen Zalis's most confident pick for this week
“The Colts’ pass blocking has been consistently exposed by defenses that rush well, and they’ll be one-dimensional against Denver’s tough run defense to begin with. Their own weak pass rush won’t touch Manning, and – although it’s been better of late – Indy’s run defense is sub-par. I think Denver’s margin of victory is closer to two touchdowns than one.”
Patrick Thorman Pro Football FocusPatrick Thorman's most confident pick for this week
“Peyton Manning vs. his old team and Andrew Luck. Total Awesomeness! This is my favorite game of the week. To bad it won’t come down to Manning. Instead, I like CJ Anderson to do what the Cincinnati Bengals couldn’t do last week, run it down the throats of the Indianapolis Colts. I’ll give the seven points and roll with “CJ Anderson’s Broncos.””
Paul Greco Paul Greco SportsPaul Greco's most confident pick for this week
“Denver has had trouble in the second half of the season covering large spreads against teams other than the Raiders, but the bye week should serve them well against a somewhat fraudulent Colts team.”
Greg Smith The Fake Football
“The Broncos are a much more complete team than the Colts, so I expect them to roll in this game. Their combination of offense and defense will be too much for Indy.”
Jeff Paur RTSports
“In four career postseason games, Andrew Luck has been either really good or really bad, and the home/road splits are telling. In two games in Indianapolis, Luck has 819 yards passing with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. But in two road games, he has 619 yards with just 2 scores and 5 picks. Luck was only two interceptions off of the NFL lead this season, while the Broncos had 18 picks. I think turnovers and Denver’s ability to run the ball will be the difference in this game, with the Broncos pulling away in the second half. “
Jason Willan Gridiron Experts
“This one is a bit of a toss up, but Peyton won’t be denied this weekend. “
James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru
“Indy’s defense won’t be able to keep up.”
Mike Woellert Fake Pigskin
“It’d be fun to see Andrew Luck upend Peyton Manning in a sort of “passing of the torch” win, but Denver’s defense is pretty good and home field advantage still means something. The Colts also just aren’t very good. Their defense wilts against good teams and their offense can struggle with bad matchups. I think it could stay close, but the Broncos end up covering/winning in the end.”
Kevin Roberts Breaking FootballKevin Roberts's most confident pick for this week
“Peyton Manning has struggled of late, but Denver’s defense has quietly been elite. The Broncos have allowed the fewest YPA (6.0) in the NFL this year by a wide margin. “
Dalton Del Don YahooDalton Del Don's most confident pick for this week
“Denver is too balanced right now and looks to get back LB Brandon Marshall and hopefully have a healthier Julius Thomas. No matter how big of a lead that Denver builds the Colts and Andrew Luck will likely come firing back. However, Denver’s defense is much stronger this year and will likely create some key turnovers that has slightly tarnished an otherwise stellar season from Andrew Luck.”
Scott Whitfield Roto Rankings
“Well. I live in Denver, what other way could I pick this one? Honestly, I expect C.J. Anderson to carve up the Colts front 7, and the Broncos defense to stifle Andrew Luck just enough to win by 9-12 points”
KJ Fantasy Team Advice
“Last week I said that Luck over Dalton was the only position where Indy had an advantage over Cincy. This week that advantage goes away.”
Kevin Kumpf Razzball
“Of all the games, this is the one I don’t have a good feel for. On one hand, the Denver offense has not been its usual scary self lately. They’re still sixth in weighted offensive efficiency per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, which is obviously good. But this is a team that ranked first in offensive DVOA last year by a significant margin. On the other hand, Indy’s offense ranks 21st in weighted DVOA. I think that’s going to be a big problem against a Denver defense that doesn’t appear to have a weakness. They rank in the top five in the following defensive DVOA categories: total defense, weighted defense, run defense and pass defense. Even if something really is wrong with Peyton Manning, I think 80% of Manning, C.J. Anderson and a solid defense pull away with this one.”
Brett Talley The Fantasy Fix
“SimEngine loves Broncos at home. They can win 20-10 or 44-43. Denver has too much balance on both sides of the ball for Colts Luck heavy team:

Colts: 19.8 (Sims Won 13.3%)
Packers: 23.0 (Sims Won 86.7%)”
Steve Olson StatSims

Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below.

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