James Shields moves to pitcher-friendly Petco Park
In New Park, New Park Factors we will break down newly acquired players division by division, and see which will benefit from their new ballpark and which ones should expect their numbers to decline due to their new environment. Our first stop is the wild, wild NL West. This division holds the defending World Champs and the star-studded Dodgers, but neither of those teams are who we’re most excited about in 2015.
San Diego Padres
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Wil Myers, RF/CF
Myers had a miserable 2014 in which he had an OPS of only .614 while appearing in just 87 games due to a nagging wrist injury. Most hitters fear the pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego, but Myers can only improve after such a disastrous year. When he won Rookie of the Year in 2013, Myers batted .293 with 13 home runs and 53 RBI in just 88 games with the Rays. Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field is no hitter’s paradise either, and with another year of MLB experience under his belt Myers should still put up solid numbers despite playing half of his games in San Diego. His totals would be higher in any other stadium, but Myers is the type of guy who will put up solid numbers anywhere he goes. His ADP is 198.8, behind guys like Ben Revere, Rusney Castillo and Mark Trumbo. I would roll the dice on Myers, even if the park factor numbers suggest otherwise.
Matt Kemp, LF/CF/RF
Coming off his stellar 2012 campaign most people thought Kemp was going to put up MVP-like numbers for seasons to come. That never exactly happened, but after two injury-plagued seasons Kemp finally turned it around in 2014 batting .287 with 25 home runs and 89 RBI in 150 games. Kemp’s trade came as a shock to no one since L.A. had a very crowded outfield, but Padres’ fans may be disappointed in the results. Kemp is already 30 years old, and his best days seem to be behind him. Don’t get me wrong, Kemp can still play, and he is a definite upgrade over anything San Diego plopped out in the outfield last season. But his numbers from last year are the best you will get out of him, even though Dodger Stadium is nearly as hitter-unfriendly as Petco. Kemp is still a risk for injury, and his ADP of 48.0 is too high for me. I’d rather take my chances on Matt Holiday, Nelson Cruz and Alex Gordon who are all lower on the list than Kemp.
Justin Upton, LF/RF
Upton has the highest value of San Diego’s three new outfielders, but he is still being taken too high for my liking. Upton’s strikeout rates are rising, he rarely walks and his speed is mostly gone as well. He has increased his numbers over the last three seasons, and it just seems unlikely to happen again, especially in a much more difficult hitting environment. He is being taken above Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Corey Dickerson in some drafts, but I would rather have any of those guys over Melvin Upton Jr’s brother this season.
James Shields, SP
Shields was the ace that San Diego desperately needed to go out and get if they had any hope of competing in the West this season. Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium is one of the league’s five most hitter-friendly parks, and Shields thrived in his two seasons there. In fact, Shields had better numbers in Kansas City than he did in Tampa Bay, where half of his games were in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. Shields is likely to see his numbers drop in San Diego as well. Last season with the Royals, Shields threw 227.0 innings, struck out 180 batters and only walked 44 while posting a 3.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.
He is as reliable as they come, too. He has thrown over 200 innings every season since 2007. Shields strikeout rate is declining, but that is expected for a pitcher as he gets into his 30s. He won’t see this success forever, but a season in San Diego will help any pitcher’s numbers. Just look at Ian Kennedy. In 21 games for Arizona in 2013, Kennedy posted a 5.23 ERA in 124 innings. His strikeout rate was down, his walks were through the roof and hitters were going yard on him at a career-high rate. It looked like Kennedy might be close to hanging it up before coming back in San Diego for the 2014 season. And what a great decision that turned out to be for both sides. Kennedy posted a 3.63 ERA while striking out 207 batters and walking just 70. Shields’ ADP is 89.6, behind guys like Alex Cobb, Julio Teheran, and Matt Harvey. I get it. These guys are all young pitchers entering their prime and they are set to have breakout years, but don’t overlook the proven veteran who has been as consistent as any pitcher in the game over the last five seasons.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Rollins comes over to L.A. after spending the last 15 seasons at short for the Phillies. The 36-year-old Rollins had an OPS of only .717 last season, and his .243 batting average tied for the worst mark of his career. He put up sub-par numbers in Citizen’s Bank Park, which gives a minor advantage to batters, but he will spend his home games at Dodger Stadium this season, a park known for limiting hitters and sapping their power. Rollins will see a decline in his already disappointing numbers, yet he is still being taken over shortstops like Xander Bogaerts, Javier Baez, Jean Segura and the wildcard Jung-Ho Kang. I would rather take a chance that one of these young guys has a breakout season than put my faith in an aging middle infielder who has to play too many games in pitcher-friendly parks for my liking.
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Kendrick will play second base for the Dodgers this season after coming over from the cross-town rival Angels where he spent nine productive seasons. Kendrick posted a very solid .293/.347/.397 slash line last season and also saw a career-high in walks with 48. He also adds a bit of speed to the Dodgers, but nothing like the speed of the player he is replacing, Dee Gordon. Kendrick benefited from an Angel Stadium that catered to right-handed batters. He will receive no such benefit in Dodger Stadium, but it is unlikely that his numbers will suffer too much. Most of his hits are singles, and the dimensions of his new home shouldn’t impact him too much. I think his ADP of 161.6 is appropriate, but there are younger options to be had after him. Roughned Odor and Jedd Gyorko are being taken after Kendrick in most drafts, and if you’re in the market for a different aging second-baseman, Chase Utley will likely be available at this time as well.
Yasmani Grandal, C
Grandal was the big get from the deal that sent Matt Kemp to the Padres, and the Dodgers may now have their catcher of the future. Grandal has struggled in his first few seasons in the bigs, but he was limited by the confines of Petco Park and a below-league-average BABIP. Dodger Stadium is only slightly less terrible to hit in than Petco is, but any little bit will help. He will have much more talent around him in the lineup, allowing him to see better quality pitches as well. Grandal did strikeout in 26 percent of at-bats last season, but another season of big-league action should allow him to cut some of those down. His ADP is 233.0 which is appropriate for the amount of production the Dodgers are likely to get from him. Expect Grandal to have an OPS of over .800 with around 20 home runs this season.
Brandon McCarthy, SP
McCarthy spent time with the Yankees and the Diamondbacks last season, and he posted a 4.05 ERA in 200 innings with both teams. A closer look at McCarthy’s stats indicates that despite having a poor ERA and WHIP, he was able to post a career-high 7.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio. McCarthy will now start half of his games at Dodger Stadium, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors, instead of Yankee Stadium and Chase Field which are much more difficult to pitch in. McCarthy’s ADP is 233.0, and lower than guys like Dallas Keuchel, Fransisco Liriano and Scott Kazmir. The big fear with McCarthy is his health, but if he can hold up for a full season he brings a huge upside and a much needed back-of-the-rotation arm that could be one of the signings of the offseason if all goes well.
Colorado Rockies
No Notable Additions
Arizona Diamondbacks
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Jeremy Hellickson, SP
Arizona desperately needed to add some front-of-the-rotation starters this offseason, but Hellickson may not be the answer. The DBacks didn’t give up much to get the former AL Rookie of the Year, but also didn’t land an ace or even a No. 2 starter with the former Ray. Hellickson had good campaigns in 2011 and 2012, and he was poised to breakout in his age-25 season in 2013, but the break out never came. Instead Hellickson posted an ERA of 5.17, the worst of his young career. A deeper look at his numbers would indicate that most of Hellickson’s early success with the Rays can be attributed to below-average BABIP in both 2011 and 2012. In fact, his lifetime FIP of 4.36 indicates that he is a below-average pitcher, and was when his numbers were helped out by Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field. Hellickson gives up way too many long balls to be an effective pitcher, especially now that Chase Field is his home. Hellickson will most likely disappoint fantasy owners and Arizona fans alike this season.
San Francisco Giants
Notable Newly Acquired Players:
Casey McGehee, 3B
McGehee turned a very surprising 2014 performance with Miami into a nice one-year $4.8 million contract with the defending champs to replace Pablo Sandoval at third. San Francisco may end up disappointed with McGehee before the season is done, though. McGehee caught fire early in 2014, but from July on he looked like his old self.
Month AVG OBP OPS
May .296 .347 .389
June .333 .410 .390
July .290 .357 .350
August .252 .325 .330
September .253 .315 .303
I don’t see McGehee matching his totals from a season ago, especially playing the majority of his games inside San Fran’s AT&T Park. Marlins Park was actually last in MLB in home run average in 2013-2014, which might explain why McGehee hit only four last season. Don’t expect much from McGehee this season or any other, which probably means the Giants will be searching for another third baseman soon.
Norichika Aoki, RF
Aoki had a fine season in 2014 with the runner-up Kansas City Royals, and the Giants rewarded him with a contract similar to the one they handed out to McGehee, one year and $4.7 million. 2014 was actually Aoki’s worst season as a pro as his OPS was only .707, down from .788 in his rookie season in Milwaukee. Aoki’s offensive numbers are likely to diminish even further this year after making the move to San Fran’s pitcher-friendly park. To become fantasy relevant, Aoki will have to learn to be more patient at the plate, which is something Kansas City did not stress last season. If he can learn to take a few pitches and draw some walks, as well as swipe a few extra bags this season, Aoki will have minimal value. But the more likely scenario is that Aoki struggles both offensively and defensively, and the Giants move on to another outfielder in 2016.
Andrew Chambers is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @beardedsports8.
