How will Miguel Cabrera respond following offseason ankle surgery?
Payton Sanders provides injury updates weekly for The Infirmary Report.
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Welcome to the 2015 fantasy baseball preseason injury report. Every year one of the hardest things to predict before your fantasy draft is how a player will respond after suffering a significant injury. To help you through this process I will highlight some of the biggest names who are returning from injury that are projected to be ready for Opening Day. Good luck to everyone—and remember if my advice is wrong it’s your fault for listening to me, but if I’m right you’re welcome.
Miguel Cabrera – Right ankle surgery October 2014
ADP – 5 1B – #1
2014 Stats: GP – 159 AVG – .313 OBP – .371 OPS – .895 HR- 25 RBI – 109 Runs – 101
Cabrera, arguably the best hitter in the big leagues, led all hitters in extra base hits in 2014. The top first baseman in the year’s draft should certainly be an early pick, but let me tell you why I would not waste a first-round pick on him. Last year Cabrera struck out 117 times while walking only 60 times, both stats his career worst. In 2015 Cabrera will only be first base eligible, which is very unfortunate as first base is by far the deepest position. Good news for Miggy is that the Tigers’ lineup is stacked with power (assuming Victor Martinez returns healthy) and teams will have to pitch to the big man. The offseason surgery should relieve some discomfort but don’t expect him to start swiping bases any time soon. I see another big year for Miggy, but in my mind he is not worth a first-round pick when I can get someone comparable at 1B in the 3rd or 4th.
Joey Votto – Distal quad strain July 2014
ADP – 72 1B – #17
2014 Stats: GP – 62 AVG – .255 OBP – .390 OPS – .799 HR – 6 RBI – 23 Runs – 32
Joey Votto is one of those picks that either makes you look like a genius or ruins your entire team. He could finish the year as a top 10 first baseman, or he could fall out of the top 25. I think Votto will benefit greatly from the extended rest after shutting it down in July. A distal quad strain for a power hitter can be very detrimental, and I believe it was for Votto last year. Yet even with his recovery, I see only two scenarios where I would draft the veteran. The first is if I don’t get one of my top six first basemen and can get him in the 7th or 8th instead of somebody like Albert Pujols in the 4th or 5th. The second scenario would be if he drops out of the first 12 rounds altogether, and I can pick him up for great value. The smart move is to downplay Votto to the rest of your league and get him late after everybody has filled their 1B roster spot.
Carlos Gonzalez – Left knee surgery August 2014
ADP – 44 OF – #13
2014 Stats: GP – 70 AVG – .238 OBP – .292 OPS – .723 HR – 11 RBI – 38 Runs – 35
I have never been one to avoid a guy who has a history of injuries, but Cargo’s last four years definitely raise concerns. In 2014 Cargo missed 92 games, 52 in 2013, 27 in 2012, and 35 in 2011. There is no denying he is one of the most well-rounded players in the game, not to mention he plays in the most hitter-friendly park in the league. If Cargo plays 80% of the Rockies’ games he will be a top 10 outfielder and if his running mate Troy Tulowitzki also stays healthy Gonzalez has the potential to break into the top 5. I believe he has the most upside of any 4th round projected player.
Alex Gordon – Right wrist surgery December 2014
ADP – 100 OF – #25
2014 Stats: GP- 156 AVG – .266 OBP – .351 OPS – .783 HR – 19 RBI – 74 Runs – 87
I haven’t seen or read anyone who says Alex Gordon will be a top 20 outfielder this year. I’ve tried to find a reason to say otherwise, but I can’t. Gordon has never broken 90 RBIs in a season, has batted over .300 just once (.303 in 2011, the only year he hit more than 20 homers. Gordon is a top tier glove in left field, but a common mistake fantasy owners make is evaluating a player on his overall performance instead of just offense, which is all that matters in the fantasy world. Another factor that boosts a guy’s fantasy perception is the exposure he gets in the playoffs and especially the World Series. Gordon will be a solid third outfielder on any roster, but definitely not a guy you want to draft before the 10th round.
Ryan Braun – Right thumb surgery October 2014
ADP – 33 OF – #10
2014 Stats: GP – 135 AVG – .266 OBP – .324 OPS – .777 HR – 19 RBI – 81 Runs – 68
Ryan Braun is a great player to talk about right after Alex Gordon because their stats are so very similar. Though Gordon played 21 more games than Braun, it’s hard not to notice that Braun is projected to be drafted 15 outfielders before Gordon. In Braun’s first season back after his suspension for violating the league’s drug policy he produced his lowest totals in runs, AVG, RBIs, HRs, OPS, slugging, steals, total bases, and OBP. Coincidence? I think not. I personally like the Brewers as a team this year and having Carlos Gomez hitting in front of him definitely can’t hurt Braun’s stock. Braun will be a solid performer this year especially with the off season rest, but there is no way I am using one of my first 5 picks on him when I could get a guy like Gordon with my 10th.
Brandon Moss – Right hip surgery October 2014
ADP – 176 1B – #26 OF – #53
2014 Stats: GP – 147 AVG – .234 OBP – .334 OPS – .772 HR – 25 RBI – 81 Runs – 70
A low batting average and high strikeout rate are never good for a hitter, but when you hit 25 home runs with a .330 OBP and .770 OPS those weaknesses don’t seem to matter as much. Moss got off to a very hot start in 2014 and slowed down a bit in the last couple of months, most likely due to this hip injury. If you are a power hitter and have a lower leg injury you end up trying to compensate by changing your swing, leading to more strike outs and a lower average. There are three reasons why I love Brandon Moss this year. First, he had successful surgery and shouldn’t have to worry about a nagging injury affecting his swing. Second, he gives you positional flexibility being OF and 1B eligible. Lastly, he is now a part of one of my favorite lineups in baseball. The Indians will trot out Kipnis, Brantley, Santana, Chisenhall, Bourne, Swisher, Gomes, and now Moss. If Moss can consistently be in the top half of the lineup I expect him to have a much better season than the 176 ranking he is given right now.
Jayson Werth – Right shoulder scope surgery January 2015
ADP – 125 OF – #28
2014 Stats: GP – 147 AVG – .292 OBP – .394 OPS – .849 HR – 16 RBI – 82 Runs – 85
If you think I liked Brandon Moss and the Indians lineup you will think I am absolutely gaga for Werth and the Nationals. Can you find a better top half of an order than Span, Rendon, Werth, Harper, and Zimmerman? I can’t. The Nationals were 9th in runs scored last year despite a plethora of injuries, and Werth was a major contributor. Over his last six full seasons Werth averaged 25 HRs, 79 RBIs, with a .290 batting average. Although we saw a dip in his power numbers last year, he maintained these averages in all other categories and ranked 5th in the majors with a .394 OBP. Werth may slip in some drafts because it is not known if he will be ready for opening day. In my eyes this uncertainty will work in favor of getting him as an underrated pick. Mark my words, Jayson Werth will be one of the best values and a must-start in 2015.
Matt Wieters – Tommy John surgery June 2014
ADP – 158 C – #10
2014 Stats: GP – 26 AVG – .308 OBP – .339 OPS – .839 HR – 5 RBI – 18 Runs – 13
Matt Wieters was on pace to being one of the top catchers last year before he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. Even with some regression he is projected to finish with an above .300 average, 25+ HRs, and 85+ RBIs, all well above his last three full year average of .249 BA, 22 HRs, and 76 RBIs. Wieters will benefit from a very good lineup around him that was 8th in runs scored in 2014. Although he is only catcher eligible I think he will finish in the top 5 at the position behind Posey, Lucroy, Mesoraco, and Santana.
Manny Machado – Right knee surgery August 2014
ADP – 138 3B – #17
2014 Stats: GP – 82 AVG – .278 OBP – .324 OPS – .755 HR – 12 RBI – 32 Runs – 38
I’m not going to lie; Machado’s history definitely scares me due to the severity of his injuries. Third base is one of the deeper positions this year and although I love Machado’s potential it’s hard to gamble on him considering the other options out there. However, Machado will bat near the top of a great lineup in the offense-heavy AL East. Injuries aside, I will always draft a guy on a top offense who is above average in most categories over a guy who is better in those categories that doesn’t have help around him. Machado should be drafted with a backup plan at third base. If you get another solid third baseman and Machado does get off to a great start, you will have a great trading piece to improve your roster elsewhere.
Shin-Soo Choo – Left ankle surgery September 2014
ADP – 167 OF – #52 DH – #11
2014 Stats: GP – 123 AVG – .240 OBP – .338 OPS – .709 HR – 13 RBI – 40 Runs – 58
Choo, a frequent 20/20 guy, had a miserable 2014, totaling only 13 home runs, three stolen bases, along with his lowest career totals in every major batting category (for years he played at least 90 games). All season he was hampered by injuries, which hopefully won’t be the case after the ankle surgery. However, with the addition of Nate Schierholtz and the emergence of the younger Leonys Martin, Ryan Rua, and Jake Smolinski, I could see the 32-year-old Choo spending more time on the bench than the field in 2015. Batting at the top of the Rangers’ order in front of Andrus, Fielder, and Beltre is a great spot to have; I just don’t think Choo will be the one occupying it for much of the year.
Jason Kipnis – Left finger surgery December 2014
ADP – 81 2B – #7
2014 Stats: GP – 129 AVG – .240 OBP – .310 OPS – .640 HR – 6 RBI – 41 Runs – 61
Kipnis had a string of nagging lower body injuries last year capped off by surgery on his left hand in December. As a direct effect of the injuries, Kipnis’ numbers dipped drastically in 2014 from 2012 and 2013. In the two previous years Kipnis racked up 31 HRs, 160 RBIs, 171 runs, and 61 stolen bases. As I mentioned with Brandon Moss I love the Indians lineup and Kipnis is a big reason for that. I think he will benefit greatly from a long offseason and will be the bounce back player of the year.
David Wright – Left rotator cuff September 2014
ADP – 87 3B – #13
2014 Stats: GP – 134 AVG – .269 OBP – .324 OPS – .698 HR – 8 RBI – 63 Runs – 54
From 2005 to 2010 David Wright was arguably the best hitting third baseman in MLB; he averaged 156 games played, 26 HRs, 104 RBIs, 97 runs, and a .306 batting average. Since 2010 his numbers have dropped significantly, averaging 126 games played, 15 HRs, 67 RBIs, 67 runs, and a .284 average. The injury to his rotator cuff could affect his ability to play third base, and in the NL he doesn’t have the option of helping out his offensive numbers at DH. David Wright is no longer a top 15 third baseman and should not be treated like one.
Nick Markakis – Neck fusion surgery (herniated disk) December 2014
ADP – 291 OF – #79
2014 Stats: GP – 155 AVG – .276 OBP – .342 OPS – .728 HR – 14 RBI – 50 Runs – 81
The Braves feel the same way about Nick Markakis as I do, signing him to a 4-year $44 million deal. If I had it my way, Markakis would still be the leadoff man for the top notch Orioles’ offense—but if Markakis has shown us one thing it’s that he is very consistent. Since coming into the majors 9 years ago he has averaged 15+ home runs, 70+ RBIs, 80+ runs, .290 BA, .358 OBP, and .793 OPS. His numbers were down a bit last year but your numbers would be down too if you were dealing with a herniated disk. With a successful neck surgery in December we should see Markakis get his power back in 2015 and finish well above the 79th ranked outfielder.
Victor Martinez – Left knee (meniscus) surgery January 2015
ADP – 39 1B – #8 DH – #4
2014 Stats: GP – 151 AVG – .355 OBP – .409 OPS – .974 HR – 32 RBI – 103 Runs – 87
It’s hard to expect Martinez to duplicate his 2014 campaign when he finished 2nd in the MVP voting. Even if he can’t match last year’s numbers we can still expect him to hit 20 dingers, push across 90 RBIs, and hit for at least a .300 average. I don’t see the meniscus injury being much of a concern even if he isn’t ready for opening day. Whenever Martinez is ready to play he will instantly be inserted into a power-heavy lineup featuring Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and newly acquired Yoenis Cespedes. My advice is to not let the first base eligible Martinez get out of the 3rd round this year.
Garrett Richards – Left knee surgery (patellar tendon) August 2014
ADP – 147 SP – #40
2014 Stats: GS – 26 Wins – 13 Losses – 4 ERA – 2.61 WHIP – 1.04 Ks – 164
Garrett Richards will try get back on track after one of the more brutal injuries last year. Prior to the injury Richards was having a Cy Young caliber year. Luckily Richards is only 27 years old and the injury was to his knee and not his prized arm. However there is some cause to be concern as Richards has said publicly that he is having some trouble with planting on the injured leg. We will have to monitor his progression closely throughout spring training to get a better idea of what to expect. Being drafted as the 40th starting pitcher Richards definitely has a lot of upside if he can return to his 2014 form when he was averaging a strikeout an inning.
Matt Cain – Right elbow surgery August 2014
ADP – 225 SP – #71
2014 Stats: GS – 15 Wins – 2 Losses – 7 ERA – 4.38 WHIP – 1.25 Ks – 70
Cain, who had pitched at least 180 innings every season from 2006-2013, landed on the disabled list in July of 2014 with an elbow injury before eventually getting surgery on the elbow in August. There is no question that all those innings caught up with this workhorse. Prior to the injury Cain had posted the highest ERA of his career (4.14) and had his strikeout-to-walk ratio shrink to 2.2. If Cain can’t return to his pre-2012 form he may find himself without a spot in the very crowded Giants rotation.
Matt Harvey – Tommy John surgery October 2013
ADP – 70 SP – #17
2014 Stats: DNP
I am going to make some statements and I want you to stop me when you hear something that doesn’t make you love Matt Harvey. In 36 starts he has a 2.39 ERA and .98 WHIP. He averages 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. He has had a year and a half off to recover from Tommy John surgery. The Mets will not put a pitch limit on him. The Mets now have Michael Cuddyer and Lucas Duda giving Harvey run support. He is only 25 years old. I would not be surprised if we are talking about Harvey as a Cy Young candidate come the All Star break.
Cliff Lee – Left elbow strain August 2014
ADP – 155 SP – #35
2014 Stats: GS – 13 Wins – 4 Losses – 5 ERA – 3.65 WHIP – 1.38 Ks – 72
Cliff Lee is one of the more perplexing players going into 2015. First of all we don’t even know if he will pitching for the Phillies this year, but for the sake of this piece let’s assume he will be. The Phillies are going to be awful, so you can’t expect Lee to get any run support— much like the previous three years. Lee struggled with an elbow injury all season and his numbers reflected it. After six straight seasons of at least 211 innings pitched and now being 36 years old, these nagging injuries may become more frequent. I’m going to take the Bill Belichick approach on Lee and sell his stock before it’s too late.
CC Sabathia – Right knee surgery (arthroscopic debridement) July 2014
ADP – 363 SP – #110
2014 Stats: GS – 8 Wins – 3 Losses – 4 ERA – 5.28 WHIP – 1.48 Ks- 48
CC is another older pitcher who is finally feeling the repercussions of being a workhorse for the majority of his career. Now 34 years old, CC averaged 230 innings pitched over the previous seven years. After four dominant years in pinstripes CC watched his ERA skyrocket and it has shown no signs of coming back down to earth. At best, Sabathia is a last round stash pick who has an outside chance of returning to the dominant, commanding lefty we grew to love.
Homer Bailey – Right forearm surgery (flexor mass tendon) September 2014
ADP – 180 SP- #47
2014 Stats: GS – 23 Wins- 9 Losses – 5 ERA – 3.71 WHIP- 1.23 Ks – 124
A year ago the Reds decided to invest $105 million into Homer Bailey for reasons that are beyond me, as he had never had a season with an ERA under 3.00 or a WHIP of 1.30. The other mistake the Reds made was not increasing Bailey’s innings gradually. From 2007 to 2011 Bailey never threw more than 132 innings in a year. Then in 2012 he pitched 208 innings, 209 in 2013, and was on pace for 202 last season. And to no one’s surprise Bailey injured his throwing arm, ending his 2014 campaign early. Don’t get me wrong, Bailey is a solid No. 3 guy in most rotations, but you do not want to fill your roster with a lot of No. 3s.
