Derek Holland was impressive during his few appearances in 2014
Full disclosure: I am a correspondent that covers the Texas Rangers for Fantasy Pros, and I’ve been a Rangers fan since the days of Toby Harrah, Jim Sundberg, Lenny Randle and Mike Hargrove. So it is with that honest self-assessment and admitted bias that I make this bold prediction:
Derek Holland will be a top-10 American League Cy Young candidate this year.
You heard right. The “Dutch Oven” will be among the elite pitchers in the American League at the end of the season, and you can probably pick him up in rounds 15-20 in your draft as Ray Flowers (Sirius XM Radio) did in the FSTA Experts Draft in January.
I hear your questions; Yu Darvish is the top starter in Texas, right? Didn’t Texas have an absolutely abysmal year in 2014? And wasn’t Holland hurt for most of the season?
The answers are yes, yes and yes.
But that’s what makes Holland such a huge value pick in my eyes.
As you might recall, Holland injured his knee by tripping over his dog while running up the stairs at his home. The injury originally was supposed to keep him out until the All-Star break, but it took until September before he returned to the hill in Arlington. And when he did, he was outstanding.
In five starts, Holland went 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA (six earned runs allowed), allowing 34 hits in 37.0 innings while walking just five and striking out 25. Extend those numbers out to a full season and it’s pretty impressive. Holland averaged just under 31 starts per season from 2011-13, so if we go with a 30-start campaign, that forecasts to a season with double-digit wins, over 200 K’s, and a WHIP in the 1.10 territory.
Of course, Holland’s history projects to a guy who can win 12-16 games, whose ERA is north of 3.50 and a WHIP that’s closer to 1.25. But Holland is just 28 years old, he’s left-handed and is becoming a better pitcher overall. That’s part of the gamble.
Here are two other major factors will benefit Holland this season.
Health; both his and the team’s. The Rangers had so many injuries last year that it was almost laughable. Their starting lineup midway through the season looked more like the lineup for their Triple-A club. But things are looking up. Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, Mitch Moreland, etc. are all expected to be healthy and ready to go come Opening Day. Holland, for his part, showed that he still has excellent stuff in his late-season comeback, and with a full spring and a healthier offense, the outlook is bright.
The other factor is Max Scherzer. And Jon Lester. And James Shields. With three of the top pitchers shifting from the American League to the National League in 2015, it’s simply a matter of numbers. Let’s look at the top 10 pitchers selected in the previously mentioned FSTA Experts Draft.
1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2. Felix Hernandez, SEA
3. Madison Bumgarner, SF
4. Chris Sale, CWS
5. David Price, DET
6. Stephen Strasburg, WAS
7. Yu Darvish, TEX
8. Max Scherzer, WAS
9. Zack Greinke, LAD
10. Corey Kluber, CLE
Half of those outstanding pitchers will still be in the American League in 2015. But here’s the kicker – of the next 10 pitchers selected, only two were from the American League–Sonny Gray and Greg Holland–and Greg Holland is a closer which makes his Cy Young chances extremely slim. Pitchers 21-30 included five from the AL, but only three of them were starters–Alex Cobb, Jeff Samardzija and Cody Allen. I think Holland fits into that group quite nicely which means in my opinion, he’s one of the top 10 starters in the league.
As I’ve said before, drafts are not won in the first few rounds, although they can be lost there. They are won in the middle to late rounds when you’re wise enough to grab that pick that isn’t at the top of anyone’s list, but brings you outstanding value. In my book, Derek Holland is that guy this year.
Mitch Cox is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Mitch, check out his archive.
