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2 Busts to Avoid in Your Fantasy Baseball Draft

SCFE-LogoPatrick Wallace names 2 players to avoid in your fantasy draft this season.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Patrick head to So Called Fantasy Experts.

It’s a marathon, not a sprint. It seems like every night I hear those words in my sleep. While a fantasy baseball season is certainly a marathon, a 25 round draft can begin to feel that way as well. The first few rounds, however, can assist in determining if you will finish that marathon running, or walking behind in dead last. So I am here to warn you not to lose focus. Do not let the “name” bias drop the metaphorical baton. Yes, I realize I went from marathon to relay race. Nevertheless, here are two names you may want to think twice about before wasting that early round pick.

FantasyPros Draft Wizard

Charlie Blackmon: A “Bust” Inside the Box

I realize I am not exactly “thinking outside the box” when I suggest Charlie Blackmon as a bust candidate for 2015. However, I don’t understand why everyone’s focus on his “bust potential” is based around his home/road splits. While his home/road splits are a bit outrageous, if he were dealt away from Colorado, he probably would not even fall under the “bust” category. I would rather focus on his second half numbers, and more importantly, post-May numbers. I do agree with the mindset of, home/road splits do not matter much if the player continues to call the same place home. In that regard, here’s another reason Blackmon is going way too early at his current ADP of 91.3.

I propose this for a blind resume:

Player A: 593 AB, .288 AVG, .334 OBP, 19 HR, 28 SB, 10 CS, 72 RBI, 82 Runs

Player B: 436 AB, .311 AVG, .364 OBP, 24 HR, 8 SB, 7 CS, 76 RBI, 74 Runs

Player C: 388 AB, .288 AVG, .338 OBP, 15 HR, 20 SB, 3 CS, 43 RBI, 67 Runs

Furthermore, in the second half of 2014:

Player A: 242 AB, .264 AVG, .314 OBP, 5 HR, 10 SB, 20 RBI, 29 Runs

Player B: 226 AB, .301 AVG, .339 OBP, 13 HR, 2 SB, 41 RBI, 37 Runs

Player C: 162 AB, .284 AVG, .352 OBP, 5 HR, 9 SB, 16 RBI, 29 Runs

Looking at the numbers, Player B is obviously the best player by the numbers. He crushed it in the second half, and his overall numbers are better as well, aside from SB and runs scored. Given Player A had over 200 more at-bats than Player C, one could argue those two are fairly similar, with Player C possibly having the slighter edge once you look at 2nd half numbers.

Now if you have not figured it out yet, these three players are the three outfielders in Colorado, not named Carlos Gonzalez. So, why is Player A, also known as Charlie Blackmon, going nearly 230 picks earlier than Drew Stubbs (Player C), who has an ADP of 327.8?

Don’t worry, I’m well aware of Stubbs’ deficiencies prior to last season during his time in Cleveland and Cincinnati, and by no means am I suggesting this is the breakout year we have been waiting for from Stubbs. Instead, I am proposing that Blackmon may not even be the third best outfielder on his own team when Gonzalez is healthy, and yet he is being drafted as a top 25 outfielder. I do not propose that Blackmon would be a bust if he were traded from Colorado, I suggest that he would barely be mixed league worthy in that situation.

He is a former 2nd round pick in 2008, and already enters his age 29 season. He was never much of a burner in the minor leagues, nor a power hitter. Aside from 30 stolen bases at High-A Modesto in 2009, Blackmon’s highest stolen base total in the minor leagues was 13 and highest home run total was 11. Stubbs, meanwhile, enters his age 30 season and is a former top 100 prospect and 8th overall pick in 2006.

Considering the Rockies have very little invested in either outfielder, it will simply come down to performance in Spring Training and at the beginning of the season. Personally, I’m not taking any outfielder, in any sort of position battle, with a pick in the first ten rounds. Let someone else take the bust, I mean risk, and go with the much safer pick of Matt Holliday, Marcell Ozuna, Alex Gordon, J.D. Martinez, among others.

Billy Hamilton: The “Elite” Bust of 2015

Yes, another blind resume. How can one do a bust list, comparing a player to their ADP, and not look at how their stats add up to other players taking out “name” bias?

2013 Statistics:

Player A: 504 AB, .256 AVG, .308 OBP, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 75 Runs, 75 SB

Player B: 511 AB, .294 AVG, .333 OBP, 0 HR, 32 RBI, 70 Runs, 40 SB  (2012 statistics, limited to 88 games in 2013)

Player C: 539 AB, .249 AVG, .310 OBP, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 70 Runs, 46 SB

2014 Statistics:

Player A: 563 AB, .250 AVG, .292 OBP, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 72 Runs, 56 SB

Player B: 601 AB, .306 AVG, .325 OBP, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 71 Runs, 49 SB

Player C: 280 AB, .229 AVG, .299 OBP, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 48 Runs, 30 SB

2014 Statistics (Post All-Star Break):

Player A: 230 AB, .200 AVG, .254 OBP, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 25 Runs, 18 SB

Player B: 276 AB, .319 AVG, .335 OBP, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 30 Runs, 23 SB

Player C:  N/A (only recorded 77 AB in 2nd half of 2014)

Obviously, Player C is the weak link of the group. In saying that though, if you even compared Player C to Player A for more than a brief moment, you may have some “serious explaining to do Lucy” if Billy Hamilton is currently on one of your rosters. Player C is none other than Eric Young Jr., Player B is Ben Revere, and Player A is Mr. Hamilton, including his Triple-A statistics from 2013.

Hamilton is my personal favorite among bust candidates in 2015, and quite frankly, it’s because you do not even have to dig too deep to realize it. Hamilton is a prime suspect of “name bias” as opposed to actually looking at the stats. Anyone who saw Hamilton’s 2014 stats, but did not see the name attached, and remember the hype of his 155 stolen base minor league campaign in 2012, would never even suggest that he is deserving of a pick in the first 4 or even 5 rounds of drafts.

Aside from his pedestrian batting average, his 23 caught stealings in 2014 is very concerning. This is not Louisville anymore, and the Reds expect to compete in 2015. If he is running into outs 30 percent of the time he attempts a stolen base, he will no longer receive the green light every time. And that is evident by his stolen base attempts going from 53 in his first 90 games, to 26 attempts in his final 62 games. Yes he can be a game changer, but at 24 years old, he is by no means a finished product.

In addition, Hamilton has a 19.1 career strikeout percentage and .309 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), eerily similar to Young’s 17.2 and .306 career marks (including minor league seasons). Revere, meanwhile, has a career strikeout percentage at 9.1, with a career BABIP of .321. A lot of people label Revere as a “one-trick pony” ignoring that batting average is a statistic. Meanwhile, we continue to consider Hamilton this “game changer”, “category winner” and yet, he is a true “one-trick pony”. Let someone else waste a pick in the first 5 rounds on Hamilton, and wait to grab the better outfielder in round 10 or 11 at his ADP over 138.5.

Patrick is a contributing writer at So Called Fantasy Experts. You can follow him on Twitter @PWall_1989.

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