Fantasy owners are reaching for Dee Gordon

Being a bust is very relative, as a player could put up very good numbers but still be drafted far too high. For example, Billy Hamilton should steal 65 or more bases, but would you rather have him in the third or fourth round at a deep position like OF, or Micah Johnson in the last two rounds of the draft at a shallow 2B? Johnson has been crushing the ball this spring, 1.150 OPS, should be the starting 2B for the White Sox, and has the best potential for 50 steals of anyone not named Billy Hamilton.

Busts can also be players that are not worth a roster spot but continue to be drafted. Using the ECR and ADP from FantasyPros, we will find the top five busts for the 2015 season.

Dee Gordon, 2B, MIA

As previously stated, there are only two players with 50-steal potential for 2015, and one of them is not Gordon. For that reason, he should not be drafted near the 63rd pick that his ADP demands. Gordon stole 64 bases in 2014, masking his poor .324 OBP and only 38 extra-base hits. If he totals less than 50 steals, he is not a top-100 player. He will be given the green light in Miami, as he already has six steals in Spring Training, but his low OBP will get to him, and he will not get on base enough to surpass 50. Gordon has 1319 plate appearances in the majors and only has 68 walks. That low walk rate will not be good enough for the top of a strong Marlins’ lineup. He also had a .229 BA between 2012 and 2013, and only saw his 2014 average rise to .289 because of a lot of infield hits, as he led the majors with 62. If Gordon had only 39 infield hits, like fellow speedster Billy Hamilton had in 2014, his average would have dropped to .251. It is a slippery slope to remove the best hitting statistic for a player, but Gordon’s profile is so closely tied to his infield hits. He has huge potential for runs with players such as Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton directly behind him in the lineup, but he will not get on base enough to reach his 6th or 7th round value.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, DET

This is a cruel analysis of a former superstar, but Cabrera will continue to drop off this year. First off, he has just started playing this spring, hampered by an ankle injury, and the 31-year-old was also slowed by injuries last year. Most importantly for those that are drafting Cabrera, he no longer has the dominant force of Prince Fielder in the lineup with him. His OPS dropped 183 points between 2013 and 2014 as Fielder was in Texas. Fielder may have not had the best tenure in Detroit, but his presence in the lineup is more daunting than J.D. Martinez and Victor Martinez. Cabrera saw better pitches with the former 50-home run slugger providing him support in the lineup. On the point of lineup protection, Victor Martinez’s 2014 season is a total outlier of his career performance, and his injuries may depress his statistics as well. Again, this is not a statement that Cabrera will be a massive bust, he should still hit over .315 and have an OPS in the high-.80os. But he will not be the mega-star that is going to challenge for the top spot in fantasy as he has in the past. A better option for those considering a slugging 1B in the first round would be Jose Abreu.

Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE

Many fantasy draft lists are reactionary to recent events, and Carrasco was so good at the end of the 2014 season that he is valued as a fringe top-100 player in 2015. The fact remains that he has a 4.30 ERA in his 372 1/3 career innings. Though they were impressive, he only had 14 starts in 2014. His low walk rate and high strikeout rates of 2014 have not been seen at any other point of his career, and could lead to fantasy owners being very upset when they normalize. His last 10 starts of 2014 are so tantalizing to fantasy owners, as he had a 1.30 ERA and 78 strikeouts to only 11 walks. His OPS against was a ridiculous .445, but he only had a BABIP of .251, indicating that he got a bit lucky. When compared, it is better to get Chris Archer three or four rounds later or Michael Pineda six rounds later. Both have a longer history of good performance, even considering Pineda’s injury history.

Chris Carter, 1B, HOU 

Chris Carter is a one-category wonder in the same way that Dee Gordon is. Carter hits a lot of home runs, and, in the same way that people are jumping to Carrasco, fantasy owners see Carter as a fringe top-100 player because the way he ended 2014. He hit 24 home runs and had a .904 OPS from July 1st to the end of the season. Carter’s 37 home runs during the 2014 campaign were impressive, but he only hit .227 for the season. He’s hit .222 for his career, and only had 59 extra base hits last season. It is clear that 59 extra-base hits is still a good number, but you would expect a player to have nearer to 65 or 70 when factoring in 37 home runs. The biggest issue is that he has poor plate discipline, as he averages 210 strikeouts and only 71 walks per 162 games, leading to a .313 career OBP. Brandon Moss is being selected, on average, 40 spots behind Carter and should give similar production. Moss’ OBP over the past three years is a much better .340, and he averages 33 home runs per 162 games. He will play everyday in Cleveland, and provide similar production as Carter four rounds later.

Rusney Castillo, OF, BOS

Rusney Castillo has shown us that in one 40 plate appearance sample size he can have high fantasy value. He did not play minor league baseball, and he being drafted based on his .928 OPS and three steals in 40 plate appearances last season. There is an outstanding track record for recent Cuban players, as Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu have become stars, but Castillo does not even have a position right now for the Red Sox. Picking him is speculative, and selecting him in the top 150 is not a wise decision. He has had injury problems this spring that have limited him to only four at-bats, and there’s a chance he starts the season with Triple-A Pawtucket. On the other hand, if you are picking a player on potential, Joc Pederson has a 1.186 OPS this spring, a .929 OPS in the minors with 133 steals in 1953 plate appearances, and the Dodgers have a star-laden lineup with an opening in CF since Matt Kemp was traded. Pederson is being picked 30 places past Castillo on average with a longer history of success and a more direct route to the majors. He is the better potential pick.

Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @thezman2010.