Josh Shepardson names 4 sleepers for 2015.
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Everyone loves hitting on a sleeper. There isn’t a much better feeling than gloating to league mates about how your late-round sleeper candidate helped you win a fantasy championship. Identifying the stars is relatively easy, but dumpster diving and sniffing out undervalued commodities is a completely different animal. Picking sleepers isn’t just a draft activity though. Projecting players who could have second-half value is also a worthwhile activity.
Second-half sleepers could be players who are worth drafting and stashing in leagues with large benches. They could also be prospects worth placing on watch lists in anticipation of a summer promotion, injured players who may return around the All-Star break, or even players who could disappoint drafters and get cast aside to the waiver wire early. For the purpose of this article, we’ll define a draft sleeper as any player whose Composite ADP is outside the top 250.
American League Draft Sleeper
Travis Snider – OF – Baltimore Orioles – Composite ADP: 377.7
The words post-hype could be included in front of sleeper when describing Snider. He was a first-round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft and routinely ranked highly on prospect lists. The outfielder projected to be a power hitter whose strikeout rate could limit his batting average to good as opposed to great. He teased his potential in 2010 belting 14 homers in 319 plate appearances, but he didn’t reach double digits in homers again until last season with the Pittsburgh Pirates. By then, most gamers had already written him off as yet another failed prospect.
Don’t be so hasty, fickle fantasy gamers. Snider is only 27-years old. He’s also coming off a very promising season. The left-handed hitter — more on his handedness in a bit — ranked ninth in average fly ball and home run distance (301.68 feet), per Baseball Heatmaps. Remember those projections of big power in The Show? It looks like he figured how to tap into his raw power last year. As for his left-handedness, he escapes homer-suppressing PNC Park in Pittsburgh for homer-amplifying Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
In addition to letting it rip last year, Snider also reduced his strikeout rate. He posted an 18.7% strikeout rate on the year and struck out in only 17.6% of his plate appearances in the second half. Pairing more contact with more power, while also upgrading home venues, makes Snider a candidate for 30-plus homers this year. Power that cheap should be available as late as Snider is.
National League Draft Sleeper
Carlos Martinez – SP/RP – St. Louis Cardinals – Composite ADP: 280.2
The diminutive right-handed pitcher brings the cheddar to the table with his four-seam fastball averaging 98.06 mph and his sinker averaging 96.48 mph, per Brooks Baseball. His average velocity is slightly elevated as a result of him pitching out of the bullpen much of last year, but it still sits in the mid-90s when he starts.
He’s more than just a doppelganger for the dude at carnivals attempting to break beer bottles with a baseball. His changeup and slider are weapons used for bat missing purposes. His changeup had a 19.85% whiff rate and his slider checked in at 24.12% last season, according to Brooks Baseball. For good measure, his four-seam fastball had an 8.95% whiff rate and the sinker resulted in whiffs 9.54% of the time. Good luck, opposing hitters. In seven starts last year, Martinez was credited with a 12.4% swinging strike rate. To put that number in perspective, the league average was 9.4% and only four qualified pitchers best that mark.
When Martinez isn’t blowing hitters away, he’s coaxing them into pounding the ball into the ground. He managed a 51.1% ground ball rate as a starter last year. The fly in the ointment is his 10.8% walk rate, but even minor improvements to his control could result in him joining the elite tier of pitchers by season’s end. Does that sound like a player worth spending a pick on, on average, outside of the first 20 rounds of a standard 12-team mixed-league draft?
American League Second-Half Sleeper
Carlos Rodon – SP/RP- Chicago White Sox – Composite ADP: 323.0
Rodon was considered the favorite to be the number one pick in last June’s MLB Amateur Draft before the college season, but he didn’t dominate in the way envisioned and fell to the Pale Hose at pick three. A diminished fastball, a slider that wasn’t as sharp as past seasons and inconsistent mechanics also led to his slide. At his best, he was brilliant. The White Sox banked on unlocking the excellence he demonstrated previously and at times during the 2014 college season.
After signing, he pitched in seven minor league games (five starts) across High-A and Triple-A. In 21.2 innings he struck out 33 batters, but also walked 13. The strikeout rate is tantalizing, and improved control will be the key for him flourishing and getting on the fast track to the majors.
He has been a rock star this spring, blowing batters away. The southpaw has pitched in five spring games and totaled 12.1 innings, allowing five earned runs on 13 hits, three walks with 19 punch outs. It’s a small sample size, no doubt. However, his high strikeout total and palatable walk rate are reasons for excitement… So is his PITCHf/x data. Rodon’s four-seam fastball is averaging 95.26 mph, his sinker checks in at 95.44 mph, the slider at 87.84 mph and the changeup at 82.57 mph. The gap in velocity between his heater and changeup is greater than 10 mph — a dreamy spread — and his slider has been of the wipeout variety tallying a 27.08% whiff rate.
Because Rodon has such little minor league experience, the White Sox may prefer sending him down to get more seasoning. An added benefit for the club is getting a longer look at Hector Noesi to see if he’s able to build on his improvements from the first half to the second half, while also delaying starting the service time clock on their prized prospect. Rodon could force the club’s hand before the second half of the season with a strong early season showing, but expect him to really shine after All-Star break once he gets his feet wet.
National League Second-Half Sleeper
Brandon Maurer – SP/RP – San Diego Padres – Composite ADP: 720.0
Maurer stunk up the joint as a starter for the Seattle Mariners last year, but exploded out of the bullpen. He was dealt to the San Diego Padres in the offseason and his stock is up as a result. He won’t open the year as the club’s closer, but Joaquin Benoit has eclipsed 65 innings pitched only two times in the last seven season (two of those times have come in the last three years). Last year, Benoit made 53 relief appearances and totaled only 54.1 innings. Missed time could result in him getting Wally Pipped by Maurer.
The right-handed former Mariner pitched 37.1 innings of relief to the tune of a 2.17 ERA (1.85 FIP) with a 0.96 WHIP, 25.3% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate. It’s not hard to figure out why he was so darn good as a reliever and so bad as a starter when you look at his PITCHf/x data. As a starter, his four-seam fastball sat in the 93-94 mph range. As a reliever, he averaged over 97 mph. He also upped his slider usage. He’s an elite reliever who will help NL-only gamers in ratios from start of the year to finish, but those in mixed leagues could get a source of saves in the second half in addition to elite ratios and strikeout help.
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Josh is a writer for Daily Fantasy Cafe. You can follow him on Twitter @BChad50.
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