What can be expected of LeSean McCoy in Buffalo?
LeSean McCoy was once a fantasy superstar. He was widely thought of as the No. 1 overall pick going into 2014 redrafts.
His ensuing season was disappointing, to say the least. Over the first nine weeks, he averaged 71 rushing yards a game with two total touchdowns. He ended the season with just five trips to the end zone after scoring 11 the previous year, and a far cry from his 20 in 2011. His rushing yards per carry plunged from 5.1 to 4.2. He caught just 28 passes for 155 yards and no scores after a 52-539-2 line in 2013.
When you consider the reasons why, you’ll see that Buffalo is not an encouraging destination for him.
A major factor was that Philadelphia’s offensive line, which had been one of the best in the league for much of McCoy’s tenure there, was ravaged in 2014. Evan Mathis, who was a first-team All-Pro guard the year before, missed seven of the Eagles’ first eight games. Center Jason Kelce, who was named first-team all-NFL by Pro Football Focus in 2013, missed all of October. Right tackle Lane Johnson, who went on to earn that honor last year, was suspended for all of September.
As the line came back together in the second half of the season, McCoy’s numbers improved; almost 97 rushing yards per game with three TDs over the final seven weeks.
If McCoy was that dependent on his blockers, then he’s in trouble in Buffalo. Pro Football Focus rated the Bills’ line dead last in run blocking. Guards Kraig Urbik, Erik Pears and rookie Cyril Richardson were abysmal.
There’s always the draft and free agency, of course, but neither is likely to transform the line. There has been speculation that free agent Pro Bowl guard Mike Iupati may follow offensive coordinator Greg Roman to Buffalo from San Francisco, but he’s expected to carry a high price tag, and the Bills just took on a hefty contract in McCoy. The Bills’ first draft pick isn’t until the second round, at 50th overall.
Buffalo did bring in guard Richie Incognito, who has been to the Pro Bowl himself, but his volatility makes him a risk, even if he is an upgrade in talent.
Another reason why McCoy’s production declined was his usage. Darren Sproles was targeted 62 times (to McCoy’s 37) for 40 catches to replace Shady as the Eagles’ top receiving back. Sproles and Chris Polk combined for 10 rushing touchdowns, double McCoy’s.
The Bills’ backfield is no less crowded. McCoy’s arrival in Buffalo doesn’t mean Fred Jackson is going away. Even though Jackson is the oldest back in the NFL at 34, he’s still an outstanding receiver (66 catches in 2014, third-most among all running backs) and blocker, making him an ideal third-down back. He’ll get his touches. Bryce Brown, who backed up McCoy in Philadelphia before the Bills traded for him, also returns.
And even if McCoy is the primary goal-line back, do you think the Bills’ offense will get him there as often as the Eagles did over the years?
The only position upgrade the Bills need more than guard is quarterback. After Kyle Orton’s retirement, E.J. Manuel is their top returning signal-caller. He was benched after four games in his second season. His ineffectiveness is presumably a big reason why the Bills went for McCoy to redefine their offense. *Editor’s Note: The Bills traded for Matt Cassel on Wednesday. He’ll battle it out with Manuel for the starting QB job.
So with improvement desperately needed in the interior line and under center, how can any running back be a fantasy stud there?
There is good news. Roman ran a ground-heavy attack in San Fran, so McCoy is sure to be a workhorse on a team that may want to keep the ball out of Manuel’s hands as much as possible. Buffalo’s defense should continue to be one of the NFL’s top playmaking units under Rex Ryan, setting the Bills up well for ball-control game plans and good field position.
Those advantages keep McCoy a safe fantasy starter. But what reason is there to think he’ll rebound from a subpar (for him) 2014, when the same issues, if not worse, greet him in Buffalo? And at age 27 by kickoff, he may have already reached his career peak.
If you’re drafting in the first half of the first round, and you were already scared off Shady, this should do nothing to restore your confidence. Compared to the rest of the league, McCoy did not produce like a No. 1 fantasy back last year, so at best, he should be considered borderline No. 1 and, in redrafts, better suited for the turn into Round 2.
If the Bills pull off another major transaction on offense, then we can revisit. But for now, McCoy’s prospects are pretty shady.
Keith Kraska is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Keith, check out his archive.
