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Closer Report: American League Central Preview

Will David Robertson continue to shine with his new team?

Will David Robertson continue to shine with his new team?

Over the past four weeks FantasyPros has profiled the anticipated closer situation for each team on a divisional basis in the National League (East, Central and West) and American League (East). This week we move to the AL Central. As always, we’ll wrap up the column with any closer-related news from the past week.

Each team in the AL Central begins Spring Training with a solid closer situation in place, though some may have a longer rope than others. Barring injury, the five names we’ll preview should be on the hill to close out their team’s first regular season opportunity in April.

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American League Central Closer Profiles

Note: ADP and projections are accurate as of 3/5/15. 

Chicago White Sox 

After three seasons of stellar setup work, David Robertson handled closing duties for the New York Yankees in 2014, following the retirement of Mariano Rivera. It was no simple task to take over a role in which the microscope is always focused. Robertson handled it well, and translated it into a multi-year deal with the White Sox.

Robertson, who turns 30 in April, converted 39 saves in 44 opportunities in 2014, pitching to a 3.08 ERA (2.68 FIP) and 1.06 WHIP. He struck out 96 batters in 64.1 innings (13.4 K/9). Robertson walked a handful more batters than he had the previous two seasons, upping his BB/9 to 3.2. He allowed seven home runs, a career-high for him in a season.

Our projections, a consensus of five top fantasy sites, show the right-handed Robertson ready to maintain top-tier status in the closer rankings – 35 saves (4 blown), 2.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 88 K in 67 IP.

Robertson is currently being drafted with the 81st pick by fantasy owners. His ECR stands at 89 as of this writing, with 88 percent of experts saying he is currently overvalued.

Robertson will be backed by one of three relievers – Zach Duke, Jake Petricka or Zach Putnam. Not a single one of these players needs to be on your radar so long as Robertson is healthy.

Cleveland Indians 

Cody Allen claimed the Indians’ closer role in May last season, and locked down 24 games in 28 chances the rest of the way. The 26-year-old righty posted a 2.07 ERA (2.99 FIP), 1.06 WHIP and struck out 91 hitters in 69.2 innings.

Our projections show Allen prospering in the role in 2015 – 31 saves (5 blown), 2.81 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 80 K in 66 IP.

His current ADP sits at 112 (ECR – 115) with 80 percent of the experts suggesting that is overvaluing him. Allen is currently the 12th reliever being drafted by fantasy owners.

Allen’s setup man is likely going to be Bryan Shaw. Shaw, 27, was quite reliable in 2014, holding 24 games, saving 2 games and recording a 2.59 ERA (3.42 FIP) in 76.1 innings. His 1.09 WHIP and 64 K rounded out his fantasy line.

Detroit Tigers 

Joe Nathan begins his second season in Detroit hoping to bounce back from a miserable 2014 campaign. At 40 years old, it is going to be a tough task.

Nathan skidded through 58 innings in 2014 and produced a 4.81 ERA (3.94 FIP), 1.53 WHIP with 54 strikeouts. He saved 35 games, but blew seven others. Fortunately for him there was no one behind him who was performing better, so he kept the role.

The projections are better than one might expect based on those figures – 32 saves (38 chances), 3.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 58 K in 60 IP. These are not exceptional numbers, but if Nathan grabs 32 saves, he’s provided some value for your team.

Nathan is being cautiously drafted by owners in the latter rounds; his ADP is 202 at the moment. His ECR is much higher at 265 and seems more appropriate to me considering the massive drop-off in production last season, as well as his age.

If Nathan is injured or implodes again, Joakim Soria is at the ready. Soria, 30, was enjoying a nice comeback season in Texas before being traded to the Tigers at the deadline, and then fell lockstep into the mire of Detroit’s relief crew.

In all, Soria threw 48 innings in 2014, and saved 18 games in 20 chances (17 saves with Texas). He registered a 3.25 ERA (2.09 FIP), 0.99 WHIP and struck out 48 batters. He was dreadful, however, in a small sample with Detroit – 4.91 ERA (5.22 FIP) and 1.36 WHIP with just six strikeouts in 11 innings.

The situation in Detroit certainly bears watching through the spring. Anyone who drafts Nathan might want to consider handcuffing Soria, or being ready to nab him off the waiver wire should the incumbent begin to falter.

Kansas City Royals 

Greg Holland leads the incredibly talented relief crew in Kansas City. Holland, 29, is one of the best in the business. In 2014, the 29-year-old baffled hitters to the tune of a 1.44 ERA (1.83 FIP) and 0.91 WHIP. Those rate stats allowed the right-hander to lock down 46 games with only two blown saves. Holland struck out 90 batters in 62.1 innings. 

Our estimates illustrate another fabulous season is in store for Holland – 41 saves (43 chances), 2.01 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 90 K in 65 IP.

Holland is currently the third reliever being drafted by fantasy owners with an ADP of 59. His ECR of 67 shows owners are making similar decisions in their drafts. Holland is being overvalued according to 94 percent of the expert rankings, but it is difficult to avoid taking Holland if a closer run starts early in your draft.

The Royals are quite safe if something were to happen to their closer, knowing Wade Davis can handle the job. Davis was equally dominant in 2014 as the eighth-inning man for Kansas City.

Davis, 29, is one of the few relievers worth owning despite not having a lot of saves. His 2014 stats tell you why – 3 saves, 33 holds, 1.00 ERA (1.19 FIP), 0.85 WHIP and 109 K in 72 IP. Besides saves, Davis performed better than Holland. Davis is presently being drafted at 244 and has a consensus ranking of 283.

Minnesota Twins

Glen Perkins is the lone lefty closer in the AL Central. While Perkins, 33, was not as effective in 2014 as 2013, he was able to maintain his role for the Twins.

Perkins tossed 61.2 innings in 2014, saving 34 games in 41 chances. He struck out 66 hitters and posted an ERA of 3.65 (3.10 FIP) and a WHIP of 1.18.

We project Perkins to save 34 games (4 blown), post a 2.90 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and strike out 71 batters in 65 innings.

Perkins currently owns an ADP of 140 and his ECR is quite close at 142.

Behind Perkins on the depth chart in no particular order are Casey Fien and Brian Duensing. Perkins will have a long rope and only injury to him would require owning Fien or Duensing.

Closer News Around the League 

  • Rafael Soriano remains unsigned and the rumor mill surrounding him has been quiet for weeks. It is conceivable that Soriano won’t sign until a team is dealt a blow to their current bullpen situation via injury.
  • Joel Hanrahan, a former closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates, will undergo his second Tommy John surgery. He had been signed by the Tigers last April. Detroit has since released the 33-year-old righty.
  • Owners of Colorado Rockies’ closer LaTroy Hawkins should create a sticky note with John Axford’s name on it. Axford was recently added to the Rockies 40-man roster and manager Walt Weiss referred to Axford as someone good to have around according to Nick Groke of The Denver Post. Hawkins is still the Rockies’ reliever to own, but it seems Axford could be in line for some saves if Hawkins needs a rest.

In the three weeks before the regular season kicks off the Closer Report will begin displaying its own chart featuring the current closer or committee and the next in line to close. We will start with the National League, unveil the American League the following week and finish off with a full MLB chart one week before the season commences.

Finally, once the regular season begins, the Closer Report will house the full MLB closer chart and report on the previous week’s closer news, including injuries and handcuffs. We’ll name the top three closers for the previous week, and provide some spec picks for the upcoming schedule. 

Check back next week when we’ll cover the American League West closer situations. We welcome any comments and suggestions you have to make the report as useful as possible for your fantasy team’s needs.

Check out our previous divisional previews below:

NL East

NL Central

NL West

AL East

Christopher Carelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Christopher, check out his archive and follow him @Chris_Carelli. He is also the founder of Yankees Unscripted which is devoted to narrative-free coverage of the New York Yankees.

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