Will Luke Gregerson be the Astros’ closer come Opening Day?
With just over one week left in Spring Training, there are still four teams without a definitive closer. We’ll take a look at where each battle stands so you can make an informed decision on where to draft the candidates. We’ll also check out any injury updates and provide you the statistical performance of FantasyPros’ top-5 relievers based on current average draft pick (ADP) values.
As a reminder, our closer depth chart will be updated on a regular basis. Feel free to bookmark it as a point of reference throughout the season. As of now, any situations we describe as battles below show our projected closer on the chart.
Note: All projections, ADP values and statistics are accurate through 3/25/15.
The ongoing battles
Houston Astros
The Astros have Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek as the main competitors, with Chad Qualls lingering. Gregerson profiles as the favorite, and is having a fine spring. He recently pitched on back-to-back days for the first time this spring, and was not scored upon in either appearance.
Gregerson owns a 1.59 ERA in 5.2 innings this spring. He has struck out four and walked just one batter. He is currently coming off draft boards as the 227th pick, and he is the 33rd reliever taken overall.
Neshek (ADP – 338) tossed a scoreless inning Tuesday, lowering his ERA to 1.80 in five innings. He’s racked up five strikeouts and walked just one batter thus far.
Qualls (ADP – 409) has not been scored on this spring in five innings. Qualls is certainly a wild-card here because he has ample closer experience, 70 career saves, including 19 for the Astros in 2014.
Los Angeles Dodgers
With Kenley Jansen (ADP – 96, #9 reliever) out until late April or early May, the Dodgers will have to determine the best route to close games. Joel Peralta would seem to be the leader simply because he was expected to be Jansen’s primary setup man. Peralta has tossed just four innings this spring, and the results have been mixed (4.50 ERA, 4 K, 1.00 WHIP).
Chris Hatcher, who was mentioned last week by MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick as a possible holdover for the role, has had a pair of rough outings recently, raising his ERA to 10.13. This might close the door on his candidacy.
Lefty J.P. Howell was looked at as another option, but he’s carrying a 9.64 ERA in 4.2 innings. Howell looks to be another to cross off the list.
The Dodgers also have Sergio Santos in camp, and he’s delivering. The 31-year-old right-hander saved 30 games for the Chicago White Sox in 2011. Santos has thrown six innings, allowing just one run and striking out nine with zero walks. He could be an alternative, though it would require the Dodgers to make a move on their 40-man roster.
I would venture to guess that Peralta will wind up with the job, but if something happens to him Dodgers’ manager Don Mattingly might turn to Santos in a pinch.
New York Yankees
Word in Yankees’ camp is that manager Joe Girardi will not be naming a closer anytime soon, and it could linger into the regular season.
As mentioned last week, Dellin Betances (ADP – 90, #6 reliever) has been throwing with diminished velocity and less command this spring. Betances regularly dealt a fastball in the upper 90s last season, but it has lingered in the low-to-mid 90s this spring. Betances has a 6.46 ERA in 5.1 innings of work. He’s struck out four batters and walked two, and has given up runs in each of his last four outings.
His competitor, left-hander Andrew Miller (ADP – 220, #32 reliever), has had a mostly smooth spring, hurling 6.1 innings and allowing just two runs. He’s struck out eight, walked two and allowed up five hits.
Both Betances and Miller worked in back-to-back games for the first time Wednesday, each allowing a run.
We mentioned before that Girardi cannot go wrong with utilizing the relievers based on the situation in front of him. This of course would limit the number of saves acquired by either player, but as demonstrated by their exceptional 2014 performances, each reliever is worth owning in deeper leagues regardless of saves.
Tampa Bay Rays
In Tampa, manager Kevin Cash will have roughly one month to divvy ninth-inning duties until Jake McGee is able to return from offseason elbow surgery. McGee is still the top choice among Rays’ relievers for drafting purposes, being selected #214 on average and the 30th reliever off the board.
The left-hander tossed his third bullpen session of the spring Tuesday, throwing 30 fastballs. He is hoping to be on rehab assignment in late April, with a return to the club in early May.
Until then, Brad Boxberger (ADP – 255, #39 reliever), Grant Balfour, Kevin Jepsen and Ernesto Frieri are the candidates to fill the void.
Boxberger and Jepsen have each thrown five innings and allowed just one run this spring. Balfour has been ailing a bit, with just one inning under his belt in which he allowed a run. Frieri has allowed three runs in five innings and nine baserunners, including four via walks.
Boxberger was electric in 2014 (64.2 IP, 5 W, 2.37 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 104 K) in a setup role for McGee. I’d expect he’d be given first crack at the role, provided he remains healthy the rest of spring.
Injury news
- Boston Red Sox closer Koji Uehara (ADP – 124, #14 reliever ) is slowly getting over a left hamstring strain which is putting his Opening Day status in jeopardy, according to Ian Browne at MLB.com. Uehara last pitched on March 14. He is backed by Edward Mujica and Junichi Tazawa with the former most likely to get opportunities if Uehara cannot make it back in time for the regular season.
- Washington Nationals closer Drew Storen (ADP – 131, #17 reliever) had the stitches removed from his non-throwing hand, and was scheduled to toss a live batting practice session Wednesday. Storen has pitched in just one game this spring, though word is he’s still on track to make the Opening Day roster. Casey Janssen would fill in any gaps if Storen is unable to get ready in time.
- MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports Sean Doolittle (ADP – 196, #27 reliever) began a throwing program Monday. He is still at least a month away, and Tyler Clippard remains the closer option until Doolittle returns.
- Brett Cecil (ADP – 248, #37 reliever) had been battling shoulder inflammation earlier in camp, but is back in action and was officially named Toronto’s closer Sunday. Cecil has yet to appear in a game, and there does not seem to be a timetable for that to happen as of this writing. Steve Delabar will be the primary backup for Cecil.
- Minnesota’s closer Glen Perkins (ADP – 143, #19 reliever) appeared in his first game action Saturday, striking out two and allowing a home run against the Baltimore Orioles. Perkins had been sidelined by a strained oblique. He hit 93 mph on the radar gun, according to the Star Tribune report.
- Arizona Diamondbacks closer Addison Reed (ADP – 201, #28 reliever) made his first appearance of the spring Tuesday, logging a scoreless inning of work in a ‘B’ game, reported Nick Piecoro of AZCentral. Reed tossed 13 pitches, and it is anticipated he will be ready for Opening Day.
Spring stats for FantasyPros Top-5 closers by ADP
- Aroldis Chapman (#44) – 10 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 13 K
- Craig Kimbrel (#50) – 3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2 K
- Greg Holland (#59) – 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7 K
- David Robertson (#78) – 4.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 3 K
- Mark Melancon (#86) – 5 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2 K
Of course these are small samples, but Robertson’s numbers really jump out at you. Robertson’s history tells you that there shouldn’t be much concern placed on spring stats of fewer than five innings, but it’s something to keep an eye on nonetheless.
Chapman seems to be in midseason form striking out batters as one would expect. Kimbrel has gotten the least work in, but he’s not someone to worry about. Holland and Melancon are safe bets to perform to their status as top-5 relievers for the season, while it remains to be seen if they’ll provide the value of the lofty draft picks.
More closer news
- Detroit Tigers closer Joe Nathan (ADP – 202, #29 reliever) has been knocked around some in spring this season, and after coming off his worst performance of his career last year there is cause for concern here. Nathan has tossed 8.2 innings this spring, recording a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He’s struck out five batters along the way. He saved 35 games (42 chances) in 2014, but compiled a 4.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Those ratios are deadly to a fantasy team’s position in the respective categories, and it looks as though not much has changed thus far for the 40-year-old vet.
- Rafael Soriano remains unsigned. At this point, it remains to be seen if anyone wants Soriano for what he’s expecting to be paid, unless the club is forced into signing him.
- Heath Bell, the former San Diego Padres closer, is calling it a career, ending his comeback attempt with the Washington Nationals, reported Corey Brock of MLB.com. Bell, a three-time All-Star, saved 168 games in his 11-year career, including a career-high mark of 47 in 2010.
Once the regular season begins, the Closer Report will cover the previous week’s closer news, including injuries and handcuffs. We’ll name the top three closers for the previous week, and provide some spec picks for the upcoming schedule.
We welcome any comments and suggestions you have to make the report as useful as possible for your fantasy team’s needs.
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American League (East, Central and West).
Christopher Carelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Christopher, check out his archive and follow him @Chris_Carelli. He is also the founder of Yankees Unscripted which is devoted to narrative-free coverage of the New York Yankees.
