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FantasyPros News Desk Draft Analysis: Rounds 7-13

Veterans such as Albert Pujols aren't as valuable in dynasty drafts

Veterans, such as Albert Pujols, aren’t considered as valuable in dynasty drafts

Twelve FantasyPros MLB News Desk writers conducted a Yahoo Dynasty Draft on Sunday, March 22nd. John Aubin of the Boston Red Sox, Jeff Krisko of the San Francisco Giants, Dale Redman of the Chicago Cubs, Rob Klein of the Milwaukee Brewers, Charlie Finn of the Boston Red Sox and Chris Zolli of the New York Yankees offer insight for fantasy owners to digest. Keep in mind that this was a mixed league with 20 year-to-year keepers and 26 players per roster. It is a normal 5X5 league, with saves swapped out in favor of saves+holds.

Here is the second quarter of the draft, rounds seven through 13. The rest of the draft analysis will be revealed through the weekend.

Draft Wizard Mock Draft Simulator

ROUND 7 (Chris Zolli)

1. Todd Frazier (CIN-1B/3B) Winston-Salem Dash

2. Carlos Santana (CLE-C/3B) Lakewood Blue Claws

3. Jacob deGrom (NYM-SP) Portland Sea Dogs

4. Craig Kimbrel (ATL-RP) Bakersfield Blake

5. Gregory Polanco (PIT-OF) Sacramento RiverCats

6. Jason Kipnis (CLE-2B) Akron Rubber Ducks

7. Jeff Samardzija (CHW-SP) Modesto Nuts

8. Jose Reyes (TOR-SS) Durham Bulls

9. Adam Wainwright (STL-SP) Alburquerque Isotopes

10. Michael Wacha (STL-SP) South Shore Sox

11. Daniel Norris (TOR-SP) SWB Railriders

12. Albert Pujols (LAA-1B) Beloit Snappers

Summary: Pitchers dominated this portion of the draft, both those that are projectable and those that are expected to be SP1 types. Versatile hitters topped the round, with OBP monster Carlos Santana following Todd Frazier at the topd. Jacob deGrom, Michael Wacha and Daniel Norris are the long-term projectable pitchers from this round, with young Pirates OF Gregory Polanco also selected.

Sleeper: Byron Buxton went two rounds before Gregory Polanco, and he has not even played a game of Triple-A ball. Even though Buxton has a bright future, Polanco already has 312 plate appearances in the majors, and absolutely dominated Triple-A Indianapolis before being called up. For context, if this draft was done a year earlier, he would not have lasted beyond the fifth round. The allure of the “prospect” for Polanco just disappeared in 2014. He was poor in his first MLB action, only posting a .650 OPS, but he is 23 and did have 14 steals. He is a potential 20 home run/20 steal prospect, even 30/30, and a steal in the 7th round.

Bust: Albert Pujols is 35 years old, and has not had a .350 OBP since 2011. He’s averaged 25 home runs per season since moving to Los Angeles. Over his past two campaigns, he only has a .781 OPS. The Angels’ lineup is not that good beyond Mike Trout. Even though his .843 OPS in Spring Training may lead to optimism, there were better options than Pujols at this point of the draft.

ROUND 8 (Dale Redman)

1. Prince Fielder (TEX-1B) Beloit Snappers

2. Cole Hamels (PHI-SP) SWB RailRiders

3. Dustin Pedroia (BOS-2B) South Shore Sox

4. Joey Votto (CIN-1B) Albuquerque Isotopes

5. Yoenis Cespedes (DET-OF) Durham Bulls

6. Javier Baez (CHC-2B/SS) Modesto Nuts

7. Jake Arrieta (CHC-SP) Akron Rubber Ducks

8. Dellin Betances (NYY-RP) Sacramento River Cats

9. Devin Mesoraco (CIN-C) Bakersfield Blaze

10. Garrett Richards (LAA-SP) Portland Sea Dogs

11. James Shields (SD-SP) Lakewood Blue Claws

12. Carlos Rodon (CHW-SP) Winston-Salem Dash

Summary: This is about the time in dynasty drafts when owners must think seriously about taking safe and reliable depth for the current year, or draft the prospects that will shape their teams for years to come. Owners seemed to be split in how to address their teams, with half of the round dominated by a grab bag of veterans (Fielder, Votto, Pedroia, Hamels, Shields) and the remaining owners selecting up-and-coming fantasy stars (Baez, Betances, Mesoraco, Richards).

Sleeper: Despite starting the year on the DL, Cole Hamels enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2014, as he posted a career-best 2.46 ERA in 200-plus innings. Hamels proved that even at 31, he has the ability to be a top-15 starter for the next few years. As the 24th starter drafted, the Phillies left-hander will make an excellent compliment to Felix Hernandez for seasons to come.

Bust: Many still have faith in Prince Fielder to regain his form from his heyday with the Brewers. The reality is, I just do not trust a soon-to-be 31-year-old coming off major neck surgery to be able to bounce back from several disappointing seasons. I fear the best of Fielder is in the past, making this pick too high for me.

ROUND 9 (John Aubin)

1. Rusney Castillo (BOS-OF) Winston-Salem Dash

2. Chris Davis (BAL-1B/3B) Lakewood BlueClaws

3. Kole Calhoun (LAA-OF) Portland Sea Dogs

4. Jay Bruce (CIN-OF) Bakersfield Blaze

5. Yordano Ventura (KC-SP) Sacramento RiverCats

6. Jonathan Lucroy (MIL-C/1B) Akron Rubber Ducks

7. Alex Cobb (TB-SP) Modesto Nuts

8. Matt Kemp (SD-OF) Durham Bulls

9. Hunter Pence (SF-OF) Albuquerque Isotopes

10. Alex Wood (ATL-SP/RP) South Shore Sox

11. Carlos Correa (HOU-SS) SWB Railriders

12. Matt Carpenter (STL-3B) Beloit Snappers

Summary: Round nine is where Matt Kemp was finally taken. The round was a mix of veterans and prospects. Carlos Correa, the highly regarded prospect from the Houston Astros, went off the board with the eleventh pick in the round.

Sleeper: Yordano Ventura struggled with his control in his rookie season and finished with a 1.30 WHIP. But he is only 23, and should continue to develop. He has ace potential, and should improve on last year’s numbers.

Bust: Jay Bruce went right around his current Yahoo ADP. But Bruce took a step back last year, and looks like he is becoming a HR hitter who strikes out too much, carrying a low batting average. He is trending towards becoming an Adam Dunn-type hitter. Maybe some of his troubles were due to a knee injury, but right now Bruce looks like he could be a bust.

ROUND 10 (Rob Klein)

1. Elvis Andrus (TEX-SS) Beloit Snappers

2. Kyle Schwarber (CHC-C/OF) SWB Railriders

3. Matt Holliday (STL-OF) South Shore Sox

4. Eric Hosmer (KC-1B) Albuquerque Isotopes

5. Charlie Blackmon (COL-OF) Durham Bulls

6. Cody Allen (CLE-RP) Modesto Nuts

7. Víctor Martínez (DET-1B) Akron Rubber Ducks

8. Mark Melancon (PIT-RP) Sacramento RiverCats

9. Trevor Rosenthal (STL-RP) Bakersfield Blaze

10. Chris Archer (TB-SP) Portland Sea Dogs

11. Kenley Jansen (LAD-RP) Lakewood BlueClaws

12. Chris Carter (HOU-1B/OF) Winston-Salem Dash

Summary: Round 10 was closer-heavy. Those that didn’t take one of the top-three closers took four quality arms off the board. One thing that I like about Allen, Melancon, Rosenthal and Jansen is all of their teams should contend for a playoff position and win plenty of games, providing plenty of save opportunities.

Sleeper: Hard to call a 37-year-old designated hitter a sleeper, but when a player like Victor Martinez, who’s average draft position is 55, slides to pick 115, that’s a great pick. He appears on track to start Opening Day with the Tigers after his offseason knee scare, and will be a big source of batting average and runs batted in for their revamped lineup.

Bust: In a keeper league people tend to get over-excited about prospects. Hard to like the draft pick of Kyle Schwarber at 110, especially when he’s not even on most people’s draft radars. Currently on FantasyPros he’s listed at #568. The Cubs current catcher Miguel Montero is owed $40 million over the next three years, so he’s not likely going anywhere. Best hope for playing time for Schwarber in the next couple years is via trade.

ROUND 11 (Charlie Finn)

1. Ben Revere (PHI-OF) Winston-Salem Dash

2. J.D. Martínez (DET-OF) Lakewood Blue Claws

3. David Wright (NYM-3B) Portland Sea Dogs

4. Addison Russell (CHC-SS) Bakersfield Blaze

5. Brandon Belt (SF-1B) Sacramento River Cats

6. Francisco Lindor (CLE-SS) Akron Rubber Ducks

7. Corey Seager (LAD-SS) Modesto Nuts

8. Gio González (WAS-SP) Durham Bulls

9. Salvador Pérez (KC-C) Albuquerque Isotopes

10. David Ortiz (BOS-1B) South Shore Sox

11. Yan Gomes (CLE-C) SWB Railriders

12. Mark Trumbo (ARI-1B/OF) Beloit Snappers

Summary: Unlike round 10 and its closer heavy selections, round 11 was a positional round that saw 11 such picks. A few power hitters were taken off the board,David Wright, David Ortiz, and Mark Trumbo. Three veterans that in a normal draft may go a few rounds earlier but dropped with the appeal of younger players.

Sleeper: My favorite pick of round 11 is J.D. Martinez. At 27, Martinez is projected to hit fourth in a lineup with Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera ahead of him. For this reason, his RBI numbers should continue to improve.This Spring Training Martinez has hit .348, showing signs that his solid 2014 will carry over to this season.

Bust: Brandon Belt would be my selection here for “bust” of Round 11. Belt has an ADP of 195, but was taken well earlier with the 125th pick. Belt is 26 years old, and has been linked to a potential move to the outfield. Coming off a year of just 61 games played, Belt will have to earn his 11th round value tag here with more playing time and production.

ROUND 12 (Jeff Krisko)

1. Evan Gattis (HOU-C) Beloit Snappers

2. Alex Gordon (KC-OF) SWB Railriders

3. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA-SP) South Shore Sox

4. Homer Bailey (CIN-SP) Albuquerque Isotopes

5. Josh Harrison (PIT-2B/3B/OF) Durham Bulls

6. Miguel Sano (MIN-3B/SS) Modesto Nuts

7. Carlos Carrasco (CLE-RP/SP) Akron Rubber Ducks

8. Drew Smyly (TB-SP) Sacramento RiverCats

9. Pablo Sandoval (BOS-3B) Bakersfield Blaze

10. Yoan Moncada (BOS-2B) Portland Sea Dogs

11. David Robertson (CWS-RP) Lakewood BlueClaws

12. Julio Urias (LAD-SP) Winston-Salem Dash

Summary: Round 12 was the round of the pitcher. There wasn’t much hitter value to be had this round, as the hitters selected went at or near redraft value, except prospect Miguel Sano.

Sleeper Pick: Carlos Carrasco is a hot sleeper pick, and is a solid candidate for the round’s sleeper. While I am not as bullish on him as most people, he’ll likely return higher value than the 12th round for many years to come. He took a large step forward in 2014, but this leap was so incredible that there’s almost no chance on improving on it. Still, if he can pull a sub-3.00 ERA and average more than a K/9 (both of which would be a step back), this pick will still prove to be the cream of this crop.

Bust Pick: At this point, we’ve all seen the picture of a corpulent Pablo Sandoval at Red Sox camp, which isn’t an unusual sight. He’s struggled with weight issues his entire career, and the shoe is going to drop sooner than later. His batting skills won’t decline, especially his super-human eye for the ball. The issue will be conditioning for Panda, and in a couple years it’s likely Sandoval is either Boston’s 1B or DH, absolutely destroying his value at the hot corner. He’ll be no more than a utility slot player in 2018 and beyond.

ROUND 13 (Chris Zolli)

1. Lucas Giolito (WSH-SP) Winston-Salem Dash

2. Lance Lynn (STL-SP) Lakewood Blue Claws

3. Anibal Sanchez (DET-SP) Portland Sea Dogs

4. Tyson Ross (SD-SP) Bakersfield Blake

5. Oswaldo Arcia (MIN-OF) Sacramento RiverCats

6. Jered Weaver (LAA-SP) Akron Rubber Ducks

7. Matt Adams (STL-1B) Modesto Nuts

8. Ben Zobrist (OAK-2B/SS/OF) Durham Bulls

9. Wil Myers (SD-OF) Alburquerque Isotopes

10. Phil Hughes (MIN-SP) South Shore Sox

11. Andrew Cashner (SD-SP) SWB Railriders

12. Justin Verlander (DET-SP) Beloit Snappers

Summary: This round was mostly safe picks for the 2015 season and pitching intensive. Of the eight arms that were selected, only one was an unestablished pitcher, as teams looked to get an SP2 for the 2015 season. There were only two players drafted in this round who were selected more on projection than previous MLB action. Teams mostly played it safe this round.

Sleeper: Oswaldo Arcia could be a 35-plus HR player sooner rather than later, as he had 20 home runs last season and has 34 home runs in 200 MLB games. The only issue with Arcia is that he does not have good plate discipline, as he has 244 strikeouts and 54 walks in his MLB career. Still, he’s only 24, and has shown that he can handle MLB pitching. He’s basically a similar value as other minor league prospects taken well before him in the draft, and it was shrewd for the Sacramento River Cats to select him in the 13th round.

Bust: Justin Verlander was once the best pitcher in baseball, but those days are behind him. Over the past two seasons, Verlander has a 3.99 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and is barely over an MLB-average pitcher. Verlander led the majors in earned runs allowed in 2014 with 104, and only struck out 6.9 per nine innings. There is a chance that he turns it around, but at 32 in a dynasty league, he is not worth the risk.

FantasyPros News Desk Draft Analysis: Rounds 1-6

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