Jack Delaney takes an early look at undervalued QBs and RBs for 2015.
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When looking for underrated/undervalued players in fantasy football leagues, you have to look at who players could become, and not who they currently are. Even when identifying an underrated player, that doesn’t qualify him as a sleeper, or even a potential star. It just means that the player could offer value, and that player is not accurately being evaluated by those within the fantasy football community.
Evaluating Underrated/Undervalued Players
For my criteria of finding an underrated player, I look for three conditions:
- ADP
- Opportunities for Success
- Barriers to Success
1. For average draft positions, I want to try and establish a general consensus of how the fantasy football community feels about a certain player. Dwayne Bowe may be a little bit off the radar because of his touchdown-less season and because Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel don’t necessarily inspire confidence, but I love him as an end-of-the-draft pickup. The Browns can’t run the ball every single play, and I don’t mind spending such a late-round pick to find out how Bowe assimilates into the Browns’ offense.
2. Last season, I was trying to decide whether it would be better to own Jeremy Hill or Carlos Hyde in my standard leagues. I believed that Hill would have better success because he was more of a complimentary runner to Giovani Bernard than Hyde was to Frank Gore. Hyde would mainly receive value if Gore became injured, but Hill would be able to immediately insert himself into the Bengals’ offense. Granted, it took an injury to Bernard for the Bengals to fully realize what the team had with Hill, but Hill was able to take his opportunities and literally run with it.
3. Similiar to the Hill and Hyde issue, looking at the barriers a player faces will help to determine if he is underrated. There is always a desire to identify a certain player as a sleeper, but fantasy owners are left imagining what the likes of Christine Michael and Justin Hunter could do with more opportunities. That’s because barring injury, Marshawn Lynch will continue to go into BEASTMODE and Zach Mettenberger is the starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans.
Going by my criteria, I have created a list of two players at the quarterback position, and three players at the running back position, that I feel are currently underrated. The 2015 NFL Draft and training camps will help shape a more accurate picture of the 2015 fantasy football season, but these players should still be on your watch list. Again, this list doesn’t mean I think these players are sleeper candidates destined for fantasy stardom, but I do think they are undervalued, and I think they could provide fantasy relevance.
Running Backs
Jonas Gray & James White – New England Patriots
The 24-year old rookie burst onto the fantasy scene with 201 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in Week 11 against the Indianapolis Colts, but Jonas Gray only touched the ball 21 more times after that. Rookie James White was a sleeper pick for some analysts heading into 2014, but he only saw 14 touches in his first year.
White was a fourth-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, and accumulated 1,444 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, 300 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in his final season with the Wisconsin Badgers. Gray was originally with the Miami Dolphins in 2013 as an undrafted free agent, but eventually found his way to the Patriots’ practice squad.
I’m not saying that either of these guys are going to be top 20 backs and light up your fantasy scoreboard, but they aren’t even being drafted in most formats. Many people believe that New England will take a running back in the 2015 NFL Draft, but the Patriots tend to find ways to make a committee approach work with who is already available on its roster. Outside of Stevan Ridley in 2012, the last Patriots back to have a 1,000-yard rushing season was BenJarvus Green-Ellis in 2010. White will compete for the role of primary receiving back, but if he wins it, he could look at 50-60 receptions and 500 or more receiving yards based on Vereen’s totals in 2014. Gray will have to find a role among LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, White and Travaris Cadet, but using a last-round pick in a draft, you are in a low risk, high reward situation. I prefer White to Gray, but each back is undervalued at this point.
Andre Williams – New York Giants
The addition of Shane Vereen and a healthy Rashad Jennings may seem to hurt the potential success of the fourth-round pick, but this helps make Williams a value. Even with eight games of five or fewer points, Williams just missed out on tying Andre Ellington as the 20th-highest scoring back in standard scoring leagues.
Vereen was brought in for his pass-catching abilities, and despite having a similar physical stature, Williams mainly worked as the goal-line back. While Jennings does a variety of things well enough, he doesn’t necessary specialize in one particular area. He can catch the ball, but he isn’t as shifty as Vereen, and he can’t plow through people like Williams. Jennings is a 30-year-old back with a concerning injury history, and Vereen and Williams are more likely to end up as the 1-2 punch the Giants are looking for.
I wouldn’t want to center my fantasy lineup around Williams, but as a back who could see 10-15 total touches a game, and has his name cemented on the goal-line duties, I think he is a fine pickup around the 8th Round. Looking at some ADPs, Vereen is currently going around the 8th round as well, but Jennings is being selected at the back part of Round 6. I don’t find Jennings to have a particularly high ceiling, so I think waiting for Vereen or Williams is a better option. While the 22-year-old has a few more barriers to success than some other backs, I still feel he has the opportunities to succeed, and his ADP marks him as a value.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers
In standard scoring leagues, Newton averaged 25.33 points in his last three games of the 2014 season. It should come as no surprise that he also averaged 65.66 rushing yards during that same span as well. Newton missed two games in 2014, and due to his lack of mobility, finished the season as the 15th-highest scoring quarterback. His injuries before the start of last season and his poor finish are currently scaring fantasy owners away, but I think that makes Newton severely undervalued.
While I don’t think Newton can outproduce Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers in terms of fantasy points, I think you could easily make a case for him as a top five quarterback, as long as he can stay healthy and mobile. He likely won’t return to his average of 723.50 rushing yard that he had in his first two years of his career, but he should see more than the 539 rushing yards he finished with last season. If he can rush for more than 500 yards and score five rushing touchdowns with missing two games, all while recovering from an injury for most of the season, he should be able to put up impressive numbers in 2015.
Mobile quarterbacks are always a bit of a risk, but at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds, he can take a bigger beating than Michael Vick. I would like to see the Panthers add another weapon or two for Newton through the 2015 NFL Draft, but his value really comes with his rushing abilities. He has a playmaker in Kelvin Benjamin and the consistency in Greg Olsen to help him get things done when he needs to pass the ball.
Ryan Tannehill – Miami Dolphins
Tannehill doesn’t receive a lot of love because he isn’t know for throwing the deep ball, but that makes him a cheaper pickup. In 2013, Tannehill was the most-sacked quarterback in the league, and in 2014, he was the third-most sacked quarterback. The offensive line struggled to stay healthy, and Samson Satele was actually the only offensive lineman to start all sixteen games at the same position. Having said that, the Dolphins have invested in more weapons for Tannehill, and a healthier offensive line should mean he will have more time to throw in 2015.
Under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, Tannehill accumulated his highest competition percentage, most passing yards, most passing touchdowns and fewest interceptions of his career. With Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron now on the roster, Tannehill will have a variety of weapons at his disposal. Also, there are rumors that the Dolphins want to move up in the 2015 NFL Draft, and Kevin White could be a reason for the move.
Aside from an improved passing attack, I like the fact that the 26-year-old quarterback is more mobile than people may realize. Some of this may have to do with running away from defenders when his protection collapses, but Tannehill actually finished the 2014 season with more rushing yards than Andrew Luck, who is often praised as a sneaky option in terms of mobility.
Even though he was a top 10 quarterback in 2014, you can currently draft him around Round 9. With more weapons and better protection, Tannehill has a high enough ceiling to flirt with top five numbers any given week.
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Jack Delaney is a contributor at So Called Fantasy Experts. You can follow him on Twitter @YourFFCoach.
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