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Closer Report: Luke Gregerson, Zach Britton

Luke Gregerson has done a great job in his first season as closer

Luke Gregerson has done a great job in his first season as closer

Owning closers on your fantasy baseball team can be infuriating. The greatest among them can suffer blowups, and the worst of them can often be better left off your roster. This dilemma is what makes drafting closers so difficult and why often times, the middle-of-the-line closers make the best players to have on your team. Expectations end up meeting the results (or better) and that’s important when looking for value propositions.

With over two weeks of the season gone, there are a couple of closers who are rewarding their owners that did not cost a high draft pick.

In Houston, wins might not be at a premium, but surely they’ll generate 30-40 save opportunities along the way. Luke Gregerson is going to be the benefactor of them.

Thus far Gregerson (78 percent ownership) has not been scored on in seven appearances (seven innings). He has allowed just two hits and one walk, while striking out seven. He has locked down three saves in the same number of opportunities, and he’s pitched in three successive days showing he has the stamina for the job.

To this point in his career, Gregerson had been a premier setup man, and I see little reason to believe he cannot continue his efforts in the closer role. If you drafted him or better, got him on the waiver wire, be happy and bask in the value you received for the 30+ saves he is likely to generate with better-than-average peripheral stats to boot.

Zach Britton has been even better for the Baltimore Orioles this season. One year after racking up 37 saves despite not starting the season as the closer, Britton has four of them in 2015. Britton has 10 strikeouts, a 1.23 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP in seven innings of work.

Britton (96 percent owned) likely cost you more than Gregerson, but he’s not considered among the premier closers in the game (yet), so there was still value in his draft position. Owning Britton could pay significant dividends if the Orioles find a way to win 90+ games again in 2015. Projecting 40+ saves for Britton is not far-fetched.

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Closer news around the league

Note: All statistics and ownership values are accurate through games played on 4/23/15. Ownership values represent a consensus of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.

Cleveland Indians

Indians closer Cody Allen has had a rough beginning of the season. Through Thursday’s games, Allen owns a 14.40 ERA and 3.00 WHIP with a blown save and two losses. He has struck out 10 batters in his five innings of work and has three saves.

Allen secured 24 saves in 2014, but with closers, you’re only as good as your last few outings, and Allen has been very inconsistent.

Allen probably has a long rope, with Bryan Shaw and Scott Atchison being next in line should the incumbent fail to improve or be injured.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mark Melancon is beginning to concern the Pirates. The club claims he is not injured, but his 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP tell the story of a struggling pitcher. His fastball has lost its zip, which has many believing he is hurt. Melancon owners should jump on Tony Watson as soon as Melancon is either sent to the disabled list or is given a “break” by the Pirates. Watson notched his first save of the season Wednesday, but the Pirates do not indicate that this is a changing of the role right now. In fact, Melancon locked down Thursday’s save with a scoreless inning. Some owners, who have the roster space, might want to grab Watson now in anticipation of what seems like a possible change in the near future. Whether it is a short or permanent one remains to be seen. 

Seattle Mariners

Fernando Rodney might be beginning to right the ship after struggling out of the gate. Rodney has held opponents scoreless in his last three appearances, earning two saves in the process. He struck out all three batters he faced in a non-save opportunity Tuesday night. Rodney, in five innings pitched, owns a 8.53 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and six strikeouts with fours saves on the season. Danny Farquhar is the likely beneficiary of saves if Rodney was to falter to the extent of losing his job.

Injury updates

  • Detroit Tigers’ reliever Joe Nathan pitched in a rehab game Wednesday but was only able to throw 10 pitches, according to James Schmehl via Twitter. He was scheduled to toss 25 pitches. Schmehl notes that Nathan was seen grabbing his right elbow. After the game Nathan told reporters he felt a pop. That’s never good! And it wasn’t, as Thursday morning Bob Nightengale tweeted that Nathan suffered a torn UCL and his season (and possibly career) is done. Joakim Soria has handled closing duties in Nathan’s absence with ease, locking down five games in the same number of chances. If Soria (67 percent owned) is still available in your league, there is no doubt he is the man in Detroit.
  • Stud Kansas City Royals closer Greg Holland is on the disabled list with a strained pectoral muscle. He is not expected to miss more than the mandatory 15 days. Wade Davis, possibly the best setup man in the game, takes over the closer role while Holland is on the shelf. Davis has converted two saves since Holland’s injury.
  • Jake McGee was expected to begin a rehab assignment this week, but that has been put on hold for the time being according to Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune. The delay is not due to a setback of the surgically repaired elbow, but rather because McGee was experiencing some tiredness, due in part to overworking during his recuperation regimen. The new timetable for him to begin a rehab assignment is unknown. In the meantime, Brad Boxberger (2 W, 4 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 12 K in 7 innings) will continue to handle most of the ninth-inning duties.
  • Kenley Jansen is tossing bullpen sessions, his latest being Tuesday according to a tweet from Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. Jansen is still looking at an early-May return. Joel Peralta (1 W, 3 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 4 K in 6 IP) has provided stability to the role in Jansen’s absence. Without a doubt, Jansen will resume the closer role once activated.

Top performers 4/17/15 – 4/23/15

  1. Andrew Miller – 4 IP, 4 SV, 9 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
  2. Jeurys Familia – 4 IP, 4 SV, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP
  3. Wade Davis – 4 IP, 3 SV, 4 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP
  4. Trevor Rosenthal – 3 IP, 3 SV, 4 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP
  5. Fernando Rodney – 3 IP, 2 SV, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP

As mentioned above, Rodney seems to be finding his groove and the arrows are flying once again.

Davis, who could be a closer on just about any other team in the league, should be fine for the rest of Holland’s stay on the DL. In my view, keeping Davis for the occasional save, and the help he provides in rate stats and strikeouts without pumping up innings, makes him valuable even when he’s not a closer.

Miller has assumed the closer role in New York, even if the Yankees have not announced it. He has nailed down all six save opportunities the club has seen. Dellin Betances is pitching better of late, but I sense Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi is going to ride what is working right now.

Gregerson is making the most of his first long-term closer role, and I do not expect him to relinquish it.

Rosenthal is off to a good start and had himself a fine week. Closing out games for the Cardinals will provide tons of chances, and 40+ saves is not out of the question.

Spec picks for upcoming schedule

Zach Britton vs. Boston Red Sox (4/24 – 4/26) and vs. Chicago White Sox (4/27 – 4/29)
We already expressed how well Britton has been pitching, and he gets two good matchups this coming week. In 2014, when Britton was a full-time reliever, he dominated Boston hitters, allowing just one earned run in 11 innings of work with eight strikeouts. He earned one win and three saves in that span. Britton also held the White Sox scoreless in three appearances last season. Combine that with Britton’s 0.83 ERA and 0.78 WHIP at Camden Yards last season, and he’s a good bet for success next week.

Aroldis Chapman vs. Milwaukee Brewers (4/27 – 4/29)
The Brewers are awful and Chapman dominates them which makes this a great pick for the week. Chapman, in 29.1 innings against the Brewers in his career, has racked up 13 saves (14 chances), 53 strikeouts, a 0.92 ERA and a 0.48 WHIP. Expect Chapman’s already fine season (8 IP, 4 SV, 14 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.63 WHIP) to get a boost after the Brewers come to town.

We welcome any comments and suggestions you have to make the report as useful as possible for your fantasy team’s needs.

Christopher Carelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Christopher, check out his archive and follow him @Chris_Carelli. He is also the founder of Yankees Unscripted which is devoted to narrative-free coverage of the New York Yankees.

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