Volquez’ strong start to the season should continue in week 3.
Daniel Marcus takes us through this week’s options. Be sure to review our Two-Start Pitcher Rankings chart.
Players I Like
Edinson Volquez (4/20 MIN, 4/25 @CHW)
No one took Volquez seriously entering the year, but it might be time to pay attention. Through 15.2 IP, Volquez has 12 strikeouts, a WHIP of .702, and an ERA of 2.30. A FIP of 2.85 tells us that the results are legitimate. Also, he is pitching for a team with surprising offensive punch, giving him a chance for a win every time he pitches. Minnesota has a light-hitting lineup and Volquez has shown he can handle the Minnesota lineup after pitching 7.2 innings in his first start against them this season with 7 strikeouts. Volquez also earned a win in his last start against the White Sox. Given Volquez’s history there is no guarantee that he will finish the season as well as he’s started it, but ride the hot hand while you can.
A.J. Burnett (4/20 CHC, 4/25 @ARI)
Burnett has shown early on this season he’s still got something left in the tank. In his most recent start, he shut down the Tigers’ potent lineup and struck out eight batters. The matchups next week don’t stand out as overly positive, but he does have one in PNC Park against a team that is prone to striking out a lot. The Diamondbacks are strike out a lot. Burnett could give up some home runs next week, but the strikeouts should more than make up for a few solo home runs.
Matt Shoemaker (4/20 OAK, 4/25 TEX)
Shoemaker hasn’t been overly impressive so far this season as measured by his ERA. However, his FIP suggests he has been unlucky, as it is .7 points lower than his ERA, and his WHIP has been very useful for fantasy owners. Add in an increased strikeout rate this season, and Shoemaker offers a buy-low opportunity from those who have been discouraged by his ERA. His start in Oakland offers a start in what has been a strong pitchers park both historically and thus far this season. This is a risky pick, but progression advanced statistics and Shoemaker’s track record indicate that it could pay off.
Players I Don’t Like
Tim Lincecum (4/21 LAD, 4/26 @COL)
Just as I picked to avoid Clay Buchholz in my week one picks, I’m not buying in on Lincecum’s early season success. Lincecum has flashed potential throughout his career and also this season, but has been prone to inconsistent performances and has been consistently poor recently. Against a Dodgers team that has made good pitchers look bad and a start in Coors Field, I’ll sell what Lincecum has done so far this season and look elsewhere for starts this week.
Brandon Morrow (4/21 @ COL, 4/26 LAD)
Morrow has been a stud so far this season, pitching 14 innings surrendering only two earned runs with 12 strikeouts. However, he has pitched only at pitcher friendly Petco Park this season, and while one of his starts is at home this week, it is against the strong lineup of the Dodgers. His other start is on the road in Colorado. While Morrow has been very impressive this season thus far, if you have other options this week, I would suggest you use them. He retains fantasy value in other weeks, as long as he stays healthy.
Travis Wood (4/21 @PIT, @CIN 4/26)
The Pirates have been doing a ton of swinging and missing this season and PNC Park is a notorious pitchers park so this seems like a counter intuitive pick. However, Wood has struggled over his career against the Pirates, posting 4.28 ERA. The Reds lineup has been potent at home, averaging four runs a game, with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce returning to form. Wood has had a decent start to the 2015 season, but this week I’ll pass on him.
Daniel Marcus is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Daniel, check out his archive.
