Jack Delaney names his four riskiest fantasy players in 2015.

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From the 2015 NFL Draft to coaching changes, there are plenty of reasons why you can’t bank on the same type of production from star players from year to year.

Aside from the stars, fantasy football players love to find sleepers buy into how these sleepers can become the next studs of the NFL. Whether our expectations are set too high or we day dream about possibilities instead of looking at the reality, there are a few select players who I think will be unable to justify their early and mid-round ADPs.

The 4 Riskiest Players in 2015 Fantasy Football Leagues

1. Odell Beckham Jr. – Consensus ADP: 1.10

There are four major reasons why I consider Beckham Jr. risky:

1. A limited body of work
2. Unrealistic expectations
3. The return of Victor Cruz
4. Passing over better options

From Weeks 9 – 16, Beckham averaged an insane nine receptions per game. With Cruz returning to the lineup as well as the addition of pass-catching back Shane Vereen, I find it hard to believe he will see the same type of opportunities. While I think he can still finish in at least the top 20 next season, and has a chance to crack the top 10, I think most fantasy players will have unrealistic expectations for Beckham Jr. next season.

With an average draft spot of 1.10, I think that’s handing players with the last picks in the first round an absolute gift. Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones are all still available. That means if you have the last pick in the first round, you can come away with a combination of Thomas and Johnson, Thomas and Jones or Johnson and Jones if you select receivers in back-to-back rounds. I wouldn’t look forward to facing that team.

2. Carlos Hyde – Consensus ADP: 3.5

Even though it seemed as if Jim Harbaugh wanted to limit Colin Kaepernick’s natural abilities and instincts, Kaepernick finished 2014 with a career-high 105 rushing attempts for 639 rushing yards. I understand that a mobile quarterback can help to open things up for his running back, but that is a huge chunk of rushing yards for a running back to potentially miss out on. The new coaching staff also wants to see him run the ball even more, which obviously has to start cutting into a running back’s production.

If history repeats itself, Reggie Bush generally has a good first year in a new organization. Head Coach Jim Tomsula called Bush an every-down back, and GM Trent Baalke reportedly commented on the impressive rapport Kaepernick and Bush are currently building. Without having a strong grasp on how this new offense is really going to play out, I can’t put my faith in drafting Hyde in the third round.

3. Todd Gurley – Consensus ADP: 4.10

There is an interesting split in opinions here, as Gurley has a running back ADP of 14 on Yahoo, but a running back ADP of 29 on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

Gurley has the potential for a very bright future in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean he can make an impact in his rookie season. The St. Louis Rams consider Gurley the back of the future, and the brass will take a very conservative approach in getting him into the lineup. If Tre Mason shines during Gurley’s absence, it’s not like Mason will completely disappear, and Benny Cunningham will also be in the mix. I may be a little higher on Gurley when there is an exact timetable for his return, but I think there are too many questions surrounding the rookie back to select him in the fourth round. If you select him as your third running back, what happens if your first two running backs become injured or underperform in the first few weeks of the season?

4. Tom Brady – Consensus ADP: 5.6

I’m not here to argue about his legacy, Deflategate or anything else outside of fantasy football.

If he does serve his entire suspension, I can’t see Brady finishing as a top 10 quarterback in 2015. Also, what if Jimmy Garoppolo posts a perfect record as a starter and looks like the next coming of Brady? Will Garoppolo just go right back to the bench? When you also add the fact that Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo all have later ADPs than Brady, it’s hard to make a case of why you should spend such an early pick on the 37-year-old quarterback.

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Jack Delaney is a contributor at So Called Fantasy Experts. You can follow him on Twitter @YourFFCoach.

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