Alex Guerrero should see more playing time moving forward

The weather has heated up, and so have the questions. What has the fantasy community been thinking about this past week? Here’s what I’ve been thinking about.

Will Alex Guerrero finally get more playing time?

Juan Uribe has finally been traded by the Dodgers, opening up third base for Alex Guerrero. Regular playing time should help boost his ownership, he’s owned in 39% of Yahoo leagues and 40.3% of ESPN leagues. If you have the opportunity to add Guerrero in your league, do it now.

He’s one game away from third base eligibility in ESPN leagues, where he also holds outfield and second base eligibility. This will give owners the ability to move Guerrero all over their lineup, where they can play him at three positions as well as corner infield and middle infield (if the league has those positions). In Yahoo leagues, he’s third base and outfield eligible. Standard Yahoo leagues use three outfielders, so I wouldn’t be too excited about playing him there, but I definitely like him as a third baseman. So far this year, Guerrero is hitting .313/.348/.687 with eight home runs, 20 runs batted in and 14 runs scored. He hasn’t stolen a base, and he probably won’t steal more than five. His value will come from his bat. He could easily finish the season with 15 home runs and around 70-80 runs batted in. Keep an eye on Dodgers lineups to see where Guerrero is hitting. If Jimmy Rollins continues to slump, or the Dodgers want a little more than Howie Kendrick‘s career .425 slugging percentage out of the three-hole, Guerrero could find himself hitting higher in the batting order which could only help his fantasy production.

Can Clayton Kershaw finish the season as the top fantasy SP?

As of 5/27, Clayton Kershaw is currently 40^th on ESPN’s player rater with a 3-3 win/loss record, 83 strikeouts, a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His owners can’t be thrilled about his start to the season, but he’s certainly somebody you shouldn’t look to sell.

There are 13 relief pitchers ahead of Kershaw on the player rater, and it can be safe to say that Kershaw will pass most of them as he continues to pile up innings and strikeouts. Let’s say that leaves him at 30^th. He can also easily pass pitchers off to hot starts like Aaron Harang (19^th) and A.J. Burnett (16^th) or players that may be on an innings cap like Matt Harvey (15^th) and Michael Wacha (10^th).

The Dodgers currently have one of the best offenses in baseball, and it may get slightly better as Guerrero gets more regular playing time. This offense can help Kershaw earn more wins which will help his overall season value. I expect to see Kershaw soar up the ranks back into the top-10 where he was drafted to start the season. The time to buy is right now. I’d be more than happy to get him in a 2-for-1 trade where I sell a top pitcher like Shelby Miller or Chris Archer and a surplus bat for Kershaw’s services. I also don’t think its crazy for a Bryce Harper owner to shop his services for Kershaw, especially if you have outfield depth.

Who are some highly owned players worth dropping?

While looking through a few of my leagues, I found a few players who were owned that I wouldn’t bother picking up if they were dropped. I think there are better options out there to replace some of these players.

• Chris Tillman: ESPN: 26.4%, Yahoo: 37%
  Tillman has been surprisingly underwhelming this year, posting a 5.59 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP over 48.1 innings with a 34/25 K/BB ratio after finishing the last three seasons with earned run averages under 4.00. His command has been troubling and he hasn’t been able to keep his value afloat with a decent strikeout rate. There are better pitchers available on the wire if you’re looking to move on from Tillman. My bold prediction from a week ago, Chase Anderson, is currently owned in 23.9% of ESPN leagues and I’d be happy to replace Tillman with him.

• Addison Reed: ESPN: 23.7%, Yahoo: 45%
  Reed has been removed from the closer’s role in Arizona as they move to a committee, leaving him expendable in all but the deepest of leagues. I’d much rather have an elite setup man with a better K/BB ratio than Reed’s (currently 14/9). Carson Smith of the Mariners is an interesting add, he’s owned in 7.6% of ESPN leagues and has a stellar 24/5 K/BB rate over 21 innings this season. If Fernando Rodney keeps struggling, Smith could take over the closer’s role in Seattle.

• Jake Marisnick: ESPN: 43.5%, Yahoo: 31%
  Owners seem to be holding Marisnick after a hot start to the season. He’s cooled off, and as the Astros continue to win, they’ll want to maximize their lineup potential by getting Marisnick and his 24.3% strikeout rate out of it. He’s more of a speed threat than a power threat, and his .308 OBP isn’t going to give him too many opportunities to steal bases. He’s at 9 stolen bases right now, and I don’t think he’ll steal more than 20 for the rest of the season. I’d rather have a platoon player with a higher OBP like Delino DeShields that I can plug into my lineups.

When should I look to buy Cole Hamels?

The short answer; as soon as possible! The Phillies are currently 19-29 with a -57 run differential. Hamels is 5-3 which is surprising considering how poorly the Phillies have played. The team surely knows they won’t contend for a while, and they’d be better off selling their current assets for the future. Hamels is easily the most coveted trade target in the league, and I don’t see how the Phillies can finish the season with him on their roster.

I’m sure many Hamels’ owners will have the same feeling as I do, and they’ll hold him with the hopes that he’ll get traded to a better team like the Red Sox or Dodgers. If I’m looking to upgrade my pitching, I’d possibly look to slightly overpay for Hamels with the hopes that he’s traded sometime before the All-Star break. The extra starts Hamels could give a contender are extremely valuable, and I think there will be a team to move to acquire him sooner rather than later. With the way the Giants are currently playing, 8-2 in their last 10 games, I think the Dodgers need to make a move to bolster their starting rotation for now, and for the rest of the season. If Hamels goes to the Dodgers, he’s easily a top-15 pitcher with top-10 upside. Try to get him now!

What has been the biggest surprise of the season so far?

For me, it has to be the Minnesota Twins. They’re currently 27-18 and one game out of first place in the American League Central. They’re 8-2 in their last 10 games and have a +19 run differential. I think a lot of pundits had this team in last place to start the season, and rightfully so. Compared to other AL Central teams, they don’t have an elite pitching staff, and their best hitter is 39 years old. Could they be playing over their head? Sure, but I don’t think they’ll slow down and fall to last place in their division. The Twins are 16-6 at home, and 11-12 on the road. If they continue to play close to .500 ball on the road and can keep up their stellar winning percentage at home, they could easily see themselves in the top half of their division and chasing a wild card spot.

I especially like the Twins as a DFS stack against left-handed pitching. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe are fantastic against lefties, with slugging percentages over .500 against southpaws. Torii Hunter also has .500 slugging percentage against lefties, making the middle of the Twins lineup a very intriguing stack when they face a lefty.

JP Gale is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from JP, check out his archive and follow him @gojpg.