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Bold Prediction: Roberto Osuna This Year’s Dellin Betances

Roberto Osuna has had a strong start to the season for the Blue Jays

Roberto Osuna has had a strong start to the season for the Blue Jays

We’re at a point in the fantasy season where the free agent pool begins to thin out as teams are making moves to improve. Whether it be to fill in for an injured player, or dumping someone that’s off to a bad start, the pool is starting to get shallow. That leaves fantasy owners searching for players that can help their roster now, and for the rest of the season. While looking for a pitcher to help one of my rosters, I came across a reliever that I feel is very similar to one that was very productive in 2014.

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Despite only accumulating one save last season, Dellin Betances was a fantasy stud. He threw 90 high-quality innings with 135 strikeouts, a 0.77 WHIP and a 1.40 ERA. Even without the saves, he was the 13th highest-rated reliever on ESPN’s player rater, beating out closers with high saves totals like Fernando Rodney and Steve Cishek. Fantasy owners grinned all the way to the bank as Betances kept their ratios down and helped provide extra strikeouts. This year, Betances was valued as a possible closer and his price soared. I wasn’t willing to spend on him in drafts, and I’ve been looking for a replacement this year. I think I’ve found one in Blue Jays’ Roberto Osuna.

Osuna is having a nice start to the season out of the bullpen. He’s thrown 21.2 innings with 22 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP and a 0.83 ERA. When comparing Osuna to Betances’ 2014 campaign, he has nowhere near the strikeout numbers that Betances put up; 45 strikeouts in 26 innings by 5/21/14 for Betances, 22 strikeouts in 21.2 innings this year for Osuna. I think it will be very hard to find a reliever with such an excellent strikeout rate like the one Betances had, but if Osuna can provide fewer strikeouts with an ERA and WHIP similar to what Betances had, I still think he can be valuable. Last year, Betances was used for more than an inning in 35 appearances, so far Osuna has been used for more than an inning in eight of his appearances. I think this type of usage is helpful when rostering a player like this, as the extra opportunities for outs can yield more strikeouts and slightly lower ratios.

Osuna uses a three-pitch mix of a fastball, slider and changeup. According to Fangraphs he’s also mixed in a cutter, but very rarely, throwing that pitch only 0.6% of the time. Every pitch of Osuna’s has generated a positive value, with his fastball registering a 6.1 wFB. Betances in 2014 mostly relied on two pitches, a fastball and a slider that both generated great results, 10.6 wFB and 15.2 wSL respectively. In 2014 Betances had a 13% swinging strike rate, and Osuna’s is at 13.2% so far this season. The rest of their plate discipline numbers are relatively the same, with hitters swinging at, and making more contact in the strike zone against Osuna. So, a good fastball and a good slider for Osuna, the same pitches that worked so well for Betances in 2014. Could it be that elite sliders and fastballs can trouble AL East hitters? If so, that’s a good sign for Osuna.

Betances finished 2014 with a 46.6% ground ball rate, and so far this year Osuna has a 31.4% ground ball rate, but that could climb. He generated six ground balls in April, but already has 11 in seven appearances so far in May. The grounders will be important for Osuna playing his home games in a hitters park like Rogers Centre in Toronto and other AL East parks like Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards. Osuna currently has a 43.1% fly ball rate and zero home runs allowed. I don’t expect him to go the entire year without allowing at least one long ball, but it’s a nice start. And hey, Betances allowed four dingers in 2014.

I’m currently rostering Osuna in one of my head-to-head leagues in an attempt to gather a few more strikeouts while slightly lowering my ERA and WHIP for the week. It doesn’t seem like much, but last week he would have given you three innings with four strikeouts, a 0.00 ERA and a 0.33 WHIP. Sometimes head-to-head matchups come down to a few strikeouts winning or losing you the category, and you can’t always rely on closers no matter how elite they are because managers save them (pun intended) for specific situations. A reliever like Osuna has a better chance of entering games on a regular basis because he isn’t the closer, and so far has been trusted to get more than three outs. I think Osuna provide three-to-five innings on a weekly basis with around five to seven strikeouts and low ratios. If he blows up, he’s free to cut for a different guy I think could be this year’s Betances*.

*There will probably not be a non-closer that has a year like Betances had in 2014 for a long time. Go look at the numbers aside from the ones I mentioned. He was amazing.

JP Gale is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from JP, check out his archive and follow him @gojpg.

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