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Bold Predictions: Jimmy Graham – 2015 Bust

Is Jimmy Graham still worth a lofty draft pick?

Is Jimmy Graham still worth a lofty draft pick?

In the NFL’s exciting 2015 free agency period, no move drew more attention and excitement than Jimmy Graham heading to Seattle. The marriage between one of the NFL’s best TEs and one of the NFL’s best teams was sure to draw a ton of interest. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, I think the excitement of the move has led to excessive bullishness on what one can expect from Jimmy Graham from a production standpoint in 2015.

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Everyone knows the Seahawks run the ball much more than the Saints, but how can the potential change in Seattle’s offense going forward be quantified? To accomplish this, I examined target data from Seattle’s leader in targets from 2012 through 2014, which is the period Russell Wilson has been the starting QB in Seattle. (credit: ESPN)

Year Player Targets
2014 Doug Baldwin 98
2013 Golden Tate 98
2012 Sidney Rice 80

While one could argue that Jimmy Graham is a superior talent to these players, it’s hard for me to see Seattle changing their offensive identity for Graham. Seattle TE targets have trailed far behind those of their WRs. While Jimmy Graham has been extremely productive, he has been given ample opportunity. Below you will find Graham’s target data the past three seasons, along with his production.

Year Targets Yards TD’s
2014 124 889 10
2013 144 1215 16
2012 135 982 9
TOTAL Per Target 7.66 .09

But for the sake of argument, let’s say that he’s heavily targeted compared to other Seattle receivers. We can project Graham’s 2015 numbers based on his historical per target production combined with the normal target load for the WR1 in Seattle. As you can see below, the lack of targets could put a significant dent in his production.

Targets Yards TD’s Fantasy Points
98 751 9 129

When looking back at what 129 points would produce for you at the TE position in standard scoring over the last six fantasy seasons, (excluding fumbles, because I didn’t assume any for Graham), 129 points would notch zero Top 4 finishes in the TE position group! What’s even more concerning is the significant spread in production that typically exists between the top few TE’s and those in the middle of the pack. The number of targets the top receiving weapon has gotten in Seattle while Russell Wilson has played QB suggests Graham’s numbers will drop off in 2015, causing many fantasy owners to draft Graham based on his name, rather than his likely production. Let someone else overpay for Graham this year.

Summary

Do not draft Jimmy Graham in 2015. He is due for a significant decrease in targets in Seattle’s run focused offense, which is not currently reflected in his consensus #2 TE preseason ranking.

Michael Brusko is a correspondent for FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out fantasyalpha.com.  

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