Kyle Soppe profiles D.J. LeMahieu and current trade value.
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We are all familiar with the idea of buying low and selling high: it is the crux of most early season trades. The problem with this philosophy is that everyone abides by it and therefore it is quite difficult to find a dance partner. That is, unless the other owner believes he is selling high on a player that really has yet to reach peak value.
Remember when Cliff Lee was coming off of a 2007 season that saw him spend time in the minor leagues and register a 6.29 ERA in his 20 big league appearances? Did an owner in your league “sell high” on him after a strong start to 2008? Or how about any owner that “sold high” on super prospect Mike Trout in 2011 after a strong May (.324/.385/.556 slash), convinced that his true value lay between that production and his sluggish start to his career (.209 batting average in his first 134 at-bats)? I’m not saying that D.J. LeMahieu is going to offer that type of value, but owners will be better off holding onto the Rockies second baseman rather than selling him off to the highest bidder.
First of all, you won’t be able to get the package that a near .400 batting average would suggest. Consequently, that means that he won’t cost you what you may assume. LeMahieu isn’t an uber-prospect nor does he have one stand out skill that makes him a season changer, but he is the type of glue guy that holds a fantasy squad together. His ability to make consistent contact (92.1 percent Z-Contact% and a downward trending SwStr%) has translated to near equal levels of success against both RHP and LHP, making him a must start at home (.310/.352/.415 slash since the beginning of 2012 at Coors Field), and giving him the potential to succeed on the road. Critics will point to his production decline away from the Colorado thin air, and while that is a real concern, he still plays 81 games per season at home and has plenty of room to grow. Even if you’re not sold on his ability to hit outside of Coors Field, how does a 10-game home stretch during the fantasy postseason (September 18-27) sound as long-term promise? That’s a nice schedule quirk and if LeMahieu’s career trajectory continues to trend upward, he could well be the common thread on many championship teams this fall.
His strong plate skills also give him the upside of joining elite fantasy middle infield company. Robinson Cano was the only middle infielder to hit .285 while hitting at least 10 homers and swiping 10 bases last season, totals that are within reach for LeMahieu given his high line drive percentage (22.7 percent for his career and 26.8 in the early going this season) and stolen base pace (17 steals per 162 games since 2013). Furthermore, Howie Kendrick joined Cano as the only second basemen to drive in at least 60 runs and hit at least .276 in 2014, another stat line that LeMahieu could achieve given the depth of the talented Rockies order when healthy. The 26-year-old owns a .307 batting average over the last three-plus seasons with runners in scoring position and has been consistently more productive in dangerous spots over his career, making a reasonable RBI total obtainable even from his current eight spot in the Rockies lineup. That upside is increased when you consider the possibility, or if you prefer the word “likelihood”, that at least one middle of the order hitter misses significant time and LeMahieu moves up a few spots as a result.
No, he’s not going to challenge Ted Williams and hit .400 this season, but now is not the time sell LeMahieu, despite his hot start. He’s a promising young player capable of producing a profit from his draft day price all season long.
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Kyle is a staff writer for RotoExperts. You can follow him on Twitter @unSOPable23.
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