Matt Harvey leads the majors with five wins
Major League Baseball continued its long season this week, and was overshadowed in news coverage by the NFL Draft. This week’s By the Numbers takes a look at the first three rounds of the NFL draft as well as the week that was in MLB.
5: Wins for Matt Harvey / Picks for the Saints through three rounds
Before he went down with a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery in 2013, Matt Harvey was one of the up-and-coming pitchers in baseball. In 26 starts, he posted a 2.27 ERA, a nutty 0.93 WHIP and a 9.6 K/9. He smartly missed all of 2014, as the Mets took their time with their young ace. Now that he is back, Harvey is back to dominating baseball and being one of the best fantasy baseball options out there. His five wins lead the majors, and his 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP are among the best in baseball, as well. Harvey was Fantasy Pros’ No. 49 drafted player and the fourteenth pitcher off the board. Those were lofty expectations for the 26-year-old, but it appears as though he may outpace those expectations.
As for the Saints, they are in the process of revamping their roster. They moved Jimmy Graham and a fourth rounder to get the aforementioned Seahawks’ first rounder and shipped Kenny Stills to Miami for their third rounder. So far they have a mix of impact defensive players, a solid offensive tackle and a potential heir to Drew Brees in Garrett Grayson.
0: Fans at 4/29 White Sox – Orioles game / 1st round picks made by Bills & Seahawks
Due to rioting and social unrest in Baltimore, two games of the Chicago/Baltimore series had been cancelled prior to baseball finally playing a game in the series between the two AL squads. The only problem was that rioting and unrest in the city made it unsafe for tens of thousands of people to be walking the streets to get to and from the game. The solution was to play in front of nobody. It was a good thing, too, as Jeff Samardzija continued his shaky start to the season—allowing eight earned runs (six in the first inning) in just five innings of work.
In the NFL, the Seahawks and Bills traded away their first rounders prior to the draft. The Seahawks used theirs as a trade chip to acquire superstar tight end Jimmy Graham, while the Bills used theirs to trade up last year to acquire wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
2: Homer Bailey starts before Tommy John Surgery / QBs picked before anyone else
Homer Bailey has been one of the most hotly debated starting pitchers in baseball over the past year and a half. He has not performed exceptionally well over any stretch, but he continuously underperformed his peripherals. A massive contract and two no-hitters certainly didn’t help the case for the struggling Bailey. Everything suggested that he should have been a much better player than he was, but he couldn’t seem to put it together. Earlier this week, the Reds announced they would be shutting down the hurler with an arm injury. They then later announced that he would be getting the dreaded Tommy John surgery, ending his season and taking a bite out of his 2016 campaign.
In a move that surprised nobody, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota went first and second overall in the NFL draft. The Buccaneers had previously announced Winston would be their pick, and everybody believed Mariota would be second. Of particular note is that half the league seemed to be in on trading for Mariota, but the Titans stood pat and took their QB. This marks the first time this has happened since Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III went first and second in 2012. This draft was stranger than 2012, as three QBs went in the first ten picks, but in 2015, no other QB went until Grayson to the Saints in the third round. Clearly Winston & Mariota were the toast of the 2015 QB class. Let’s hope that, unlike Bailey, they live up to expectations.
8: Anthony Rizzo stolen base attempts in 2015 / RBs selected in first three rounds
Going into the season, Rizzo was pegged as someone who would build on his breakout 2014 season, and he has. The only thing is Rizzo is doing it with a completely different profile than he did in 2014. In 2015, he has become an OBP machine and a base stealer. He has six of the latter after swiping five in all of 2014. His six outpace Paul Goldschmidt for tops at the position, and while Rizzo’s OBP has gone through the roof, he’s lost sixty points in his slugging percentage. Chances are Rizzo will get those points back and his stolen bases will wane. He’s not getting you exactly what you drafted him for, but you can’t argue that Rizzo’s been productive.
The NFL Draft saw two first-round running backs this year, with Todd Gurley going tenth and Melvin Gordon going fifteenth. Gurley was the first first-round running back since David Wilson went 32nd to the Giants in 2012. The eight is the most that have gone in the first three rounds since eight went in 2011.
31: Combined stolen bases from Jose Altuve, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton / Combined QB/WR/TE/RB taken in the first three rounds (not including Shaq Thompson) / Combined Linebackers & Cornerbacks taken in first three rounds (not including Shaq Thompson)
So far into the season, there is no breakout stolen base contender to the throne, as the top three players from 2014 are still the toast of the base-swiping town. Hamilton has thirteen, while Altuve and Gordon have chipped in nine a piece. Altuve and Gordon were tabbed in different places as regression candidates, and Hamilton was expected to take the next step forward. The infielders defied expectations so far, and Hamilton’s step forward in batting skill & base stealing ability has been incredible for his value. Interestingly enough, these may be the hardest players to trade—they make up almost the entirety of your stolen bases, so you would be crippling yourself if you traded them away.
Poor Shaq Thompson, who had a foot in both camps as a running back/linebacker at Washington, was excluded from both camps to make the numbers fit. Traditional draft analysts state that you build from the lines outward, but through 99 picks, it was almost exactly a one-third split between lineman, defensive skill players and offensive skill players. While I think the big uglies are still how you win in the NFL, it is interesting that the split is getting closer to even on both sides of the ball.
10: Evan Gattis RBI over last seven days / Pick Todd Gurley was chosen
Through the first few weeks of the season, the streaky Gattis was one of the most frustrating players to watch. He wasn’t even getting wood on the ball, as he was striking out with elevated frequency. Fast forward to today and over the past week, he leads the majors in RBI. Gattis is a microcosm of the Astros current construction, as they are a ton of streaky players who can hit home runs, or strikeout, in bunches. For those of you who drafted Gattis, this is what you signed up for. To those of you who wanted to acquire Gattis while he slumped, your window may be over.
Speaking of players that are going to start off slow, Todd Gurley is now a St. Louis Ram. He went tenth overall to Jeff Fisher’s Rams team but may not be ready for the season. Remember the patience you displayed with Gattis when fantasy football rolls around, as Gurley is likely to be worked in slowly coming off his ACL surgery, but should be a quality fantasy contributor for your squad in 2015.
28: Strikeouts for Danny Salazar over last 14 days / Traded picks in first three rounds of Draft
Over the last two weeks, the strikeout king of baseball has not been Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer, but Danny Salazar. Salazar is gunning to be this year’s fantasy breakout, a title held by his teammate, 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. Salazar has only started three games this season, but has double-digit strikeouts in two of them. His only start that wasn’t a breeze was against one of the hottest teams in baseball and the reigning AL champs, as he struck out only seven Royals and allowed four earned runs in his most recent appearance. Salazar looks to be legitimate through three starts, and he may be leading you to fantasy glory in 2015.
In the NFL, trades are a hallmark of the draft, as there are wheelings and dealings every year. This year was a little low, without any blockbuster deal in the first round. As the draft opened up, more moves were made, and going into the fourth round, the NFL sits only four trades behind last year’s torrid pace.
While the NFL Draft is big news this weekend, it is the only real news the NFL is going to make over the next couple of months. Major League Baseball is taking a back seat this weekend to one of the biggest annual events in sports, but the boys of summer will make their rebound and regain the collective American consciousness soon enough. Enjoy the Draft this weekend, but keep an eye on your fantasy baseball squads.
Jeff Krisko is a correspondent at FantasyPros, and he also writes for Fantasy Sports Warehouse. To read more from Jeff, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @jmkrisko and Fantasy Sports Warehouse @FantasySportsWH.
