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Dissecting a Breakout: Bryce Harper

DFC-LogoJosh Shepardson is thoroughly impressed by the work of Bryce Harper and expounds upon it.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Josh head to Daily Fantasy Cafe

Bryce Harper is really good at baseball. Yes, I know. That’s a groundbreaking statement. Okay, snark aside, he’s flourishing and becoming one of the best players in the game. The 22-year-old outfielder is being lauded by the media for his hot streak. It is a hot streak, no doubt, but I can’t help but feel like it might be lost on some people that there is more than a hot streak at play here. Harper is legitimately breaking out, and while he won’t stay this hot forever, it’s time to re-assess his value.

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The young outfielder entered this year as one of the best hitters in baseball against righties since becoming a major leaguer in 2012. Injuries prevented him from being a qualified hitter during that time period, but among hitters who tallied at least 1,000 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, he ranked tied for 16th in wRC+ with a mark of 138, according to FanGraphs. If you’re unfamiliar with wRC+, a quick and dirty explanation is that it’s a stat that rolls up offensive performance into an easily digestible number where 100 is considered neutral and every point above or below 100 is a percentage point above or below average. In other words, Harper was 38% better than the average offensive player against right-handed pitchers entering this year. A more thorough explanation of wRC+ can be found here. Harper was not, however, even an average offensive player against lefties having tallied a 95 wRC+. By no means is that an awful mark, but it left room for improvement.

And improve Harper has. This year, the left-handed hitting outfielder has posted a staggering 154 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances against lefties with a jaw dropping 23.1% walk rate and a 17.3% strikeout rate. He’s ripped four doubles and a homer off of left-handed pitchers this year. If you think those numbers are impressive, I’d suggest you be seated before reading what he’s done against righties. Harper has totaled 135 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this year and totaled a 243 wRC+ with a 20.0% walk rate, four doubles, one triple and 15 homers. In other words, he’s been 143% better than the average offensive player against righties. Lordy.

One of the biggest changes to his statistical profile this year is a gargantuan leap in walk rate. He entered 2015 with a career walk rate of 10.4% and that’s skyrocketed to 20.9% this year. Harper has reduced his chase rate and cut down on pitches swung at in the strike zone, according to the plate discipline data at FanGraphs. Reading between the lines, it looks like he’s being more selective and looking for pitches to do damage against. Interestingly, his 69.6% zone-swing rate is actually 3.5% higher than the league average. It appears Harper is willing to take a walk, but not at the expense of punishing a pitch in the strike zone if he deems it something he can punish.

Speaking of punishing pitches, that’s something Harper has done with regularity this year. His .395 ISO leads all qualified hitters and is well clear of second place Nelson Cruz’s .355 ISO. Homers have definitely helped fuel his ISO, but is he hitting cheapies? No, he’s not hitting cheapies. Harper’s average home run and flyball distance of 322.47 feet is the second highest in the league, according to Baseball Heat Maps.

For those thinking I should pump the breaks on gushing over Harper’s small sample of early season success, that sample is starting to grow to the point of being meaningful. Derek Carty published a study for Baseball Prospectus in 2011 demonstrating when hitters’ stats stabilize, and that ballooned walk rate is looking pretty legit after consulting the table in that study. That’s not to say when you reach these thresholds that you should totally dismiss the previous work of a player, but it does illustrate that there’s some validity to Harper’s otherworldly production not suffering from steep regression to previous career norms. As a player of Harper’s age and big league experience level, it shouldn’t come as a shock to see him making wide spanning improvements to his game. The fact they’ve been so pronounced might be shocking, but sometimes the light just goes on for elite players like Harper. Look no further than Mike Trout exploding in his first full season in the majors in 2012 after struggling a bit in his 135 plate appearance debut the year before.

Now that we’re roughly a quarter of the way through the baseball season, what should we make of Harper going forward? I don’t think it’s a bold statement to call him a first round talent going into next year, but it might be for me to declare him the second best player in fantasy behind only Mike Trout. In dynasty and keeper leagues, Trout is the only player I’d rather have than Harper. Trout’s track record of success and greater base stealing skills get him the nod, but if I could move any other player in a one-for-one for Harper in dynasty or keeper leagues, I would do so. Welcome to the world of Trout and Harper competing for real life and fantasy MVP awards. It’s a good time to be a baseball fan.

Josh is a writer for Daily Fantasy Cafe. You can follow him on Twitter @BChad50.


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