Todd Gurley is 2015’s most valuable dynasty asset
Projecting player performance over a five year period is not an easy thing to do. This is especially true for WR’s and RB’s which I call derivative positions, because their value is derived from another entity. In this case those entities are QBs and O-Lines. No matter how great the player may be independently, their fantasy value is largely controlled by the performance of other individual(s). The derivative concept is very important to remember when drafting in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Due to the immense amount of attention QBs receive in the media, most fans have an informed opinion about them, but offensive lines are another story. Fortunately, we can judge the effectiveness of teams’ O-Lines using PFF’s stats from the 2014 season. Taking this information into account, I’ve ranked 2015’s rookies as follows.
My top 15 Dynasty WR/RBs:
1) Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams – The top RB prospect in the draft with a unique blend of power and speed, possibly not seen since Adrian Peterson. While he is running behind a Rams offensive line that ranked in the Bottom 3rd in Run Blocking during 2014, they should continue to improve with Greg Robinson one year older and the additions of Rob Havenstein (2nd Round RT) and Jaman Brown (3rd Round G).
2) Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers – Gordon doesn’t rank far behind Gurley and could make a more immediate impact depending on Gurley’s recovery time. His issues in pass protection and receiving are overstated, leading me to see him as an every down back. The only near term red flag is the fact the Chargers ranked 2nd to last in Run Blocking last season. Unfortunately, they had only five draft picks in this year’s draft with zero being spent addressing the offensive line.
3) Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – His high ranking may surprise some, but it shouldn’t. More important than his polished route running and consistent hands – he is in a perfect situation. Agholor stands to be the main beneficiary of the 143 targets created by Jeremy Maclin’s departure for Kansas City, as he possesses the versatility to play in the slot or outside. Chip’s ultra-efficient, high powered attack should give him opportunities for years to come. Sam Bradford’s health may be a concern, but it’s a risk I am willing to take.
4) T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars –Yeldon is a complete back that will have an opportunity to be the bell cow in Jacksonville from Day 1 due to the soft competition he faces in Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson. The Jaguars O-Line did rank in the bottom 3rd for run blocking in 2014 season, but did take a mauler in the run game with their 3rd round selection of guard A.J. Cann from South Carolina. Despite the incompetence that comes to mind when you think of the Jacksonville Jaguars, this team is heading in the right direction and T.J. Yeldon stands to benefit.
5) Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders – I am in love with Amari Cooper’s game, but I am not in love with the team he plays for. Fortunately, he is the only show in town and David Carr showed potential last season. It’s been proven nearly impossible for great receivers to overcome awful QB play (ask Larry Fitzgerald), but his talent is so great that if Carr turns out to be halfway decent he should eventually turn into a consistent top 10 fantasy producer at the WR position.
6) Devante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins – I couldn’t agree more with Sam Monson’s analysis on Parker being the WR in this draft class on Cooper’s heels. His production in the 6 games he played last season was downright scary (43 passes, 855 yards and 5 touchdowns). There are targets for the taking with Mike Wallace gone and his only competition for a starting role is an aging Greg Jennings. Tannehill’s inconsistencies concern me, and as many have recently stated, if he doesn’t step up now he never will.
7) Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions – Abdullah is a true gamer with great quickness, elusiveness and vision. He will split carries this season with Joique Bell, but considering Bell has only two years left on his contract, it’s likely he’ll be the lone wolf in Detroit’s backfield in 2017. His playing time this year will depend on his progress in pass protection, as it was his greatest weakness in college.
8) Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns – Duke was one of my favorite RBs in the class due to his pass catching and big play ability. Couple that with an offensive line ranked in the top 3rd in run blocking and there is significant fantasy opportunity to be found. While naysayers may cite the crowded backfield, I think Duke is a more talented runner than both Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell, while also possessing a pass catching ability that neither player has. If the murkiness in Cleveland’s backfield didn’t exist I would rank him ahead of T.J. Yeldon.
9) Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins – Jay was a complete back at Boise State, exhibiting unique balance and footwork for his size (6’, 220lb). While his workload may be uncertain this season with Lamar Miller still in town, Miami has never shown full confidence in Miller, who will be a free agent after this season. Jay’s catching ability and effort in pass protection give him a good shot to be an every down back in 2016. The Dolphins O-Line ranked in the bottom 3rd last season, which worries me much more than any longevity concerns stemming from Jay’s 2011 knee injury.
10) Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts – I absolutely hated this pick when it occurred. Indy had too many needs on defense and I didn’t view Dorsett as the best WR available with Devin Smith still on the board. My frustrations aside, he will be playing with Andrew Luck, who should be the best fantasy QB over the next five years. I am high on both TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief, which could cut into Dorsett’s opportunities, but if for some reason this pick was made to let Hilton walk in 2016, Dorsett’s fantasy stock could explode.
11) Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens – He has straight line speed and Joe Flacco’s cannon going for him. Unfortunately, he hasn’t proven to run good routes and has had significant issues with drops. It’s out of my respect for Flacco and the Raven’s coaching staff that I have him ranked this high. It’s possible that his ceiling becomes only Torrey Smith type production, but his raw talent and environment make him worth a shot for greater things.
12) Devin Smith, WR, New York Jets – Smith was the best deep threat in the entire draft. I would have had him ranked top 5 if he had landed with the right team. Some question his ability to run intermediate routes, but his college tape says otherwise. He is not ranked higher due to the QB uncertainty in New York and my lack of faith in Geno Smith. I’m hoping Bryce Petty pans out, but if not, Smith’s talent may unfortunately be wasted and never fully utilized.
13) Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee Titans – DGB’s talent and size are undeniable, but his work ethic and love for the game are highly questionable. He did show the ability in college to be a consistent red zone threat, which should continue in the NFL. I’m not sure what he’ll see from a volume standpoint, which hurts him in PPR formats. Where you draft him is a bet on two factors: how NFL-ready Marcus Mariota is and if DGB can stay out of trouble. I think it’s unlikely these both line up within the next 3 years, which hurts his value greatly in my view.
14) Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State – I love the player and personally had him ranked 4th in my WR rankings heading into the draft, but hate the location as far as fantasy goes. My concern is his ceiling will be set as a Golden Tate type producer when he played in Seattle, because of their run focused offense. He will help Seattle win football games, but is unlikely to help you win fantasy championships. I hate when that happens!
15) Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears – I am probably the only person to have him ranked this low. Despite his freakish potential, his situation scares me. First, I don’t think he is NFL ready and will take a few years to develop. By the time he is ready, I think Cutler will be gone ($14 mil in cap savings cutting him after 2016), which means he is dealing with a young, inexperienced quarterback. This is why Kevin White is the perfect example of fantasy bust potential.
Michael Brusko is a correspondent for FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out fantasyalpha.com.
